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The 'center' of Isaac is just inland near Banes, Cuba. It should exit back into the Florida Straits within the next hour or two. Isaac still looks rather disorganized...

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 21:25Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2012
Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 16
Observation Number: 07
A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 21:14:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°30'N 76°18'W (21.5N 76.3W)
B. Center Fix Location: 104 miles (168 km) to the E (86°) from Camagüey, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,403m (4,603ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 59kts (~ 67.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 90 nautical miles (104 statute miles) to the ESE (108°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 139° at 56kts (From the SE at ~ 64.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 44 nautical miles (51 statute miles) to the E (85°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 998mb (29.47 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,528m (5,013ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.05 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 7 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 56kts (~ 64.4mph) in the east quadrant at 20:12:00Z

Per the satellite images above, Isaac does look somewhat broken apart. What impresses me though is his overall size and if he can pull off the Humpty Dumpty act and put himself together again, we'll see one large storm threatening someone along the Gulf Coast.

Portastorm wrote:Per the satellite images above, Isaac does look somewhat broken apart. What impresses me though is his overall size and if he can pull off the Humpty Dumpty act and put himself together again, we'll see one large storm threatening someone along the Gulf Coast.

Indeed!

It appears the 18Z GFS will be a SE LA/MS run...

Definitely further west than the 12z run!

Hour 78 of the 18Z GFS:

The GFS has been sort of suggesting a slowing down or stalling as the ridge builds back over Isaac near landfall. The 18Z certainly suggests that as well...

18Z GFS drifting W at hour 108...

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 22:03Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2012
Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 16
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 21:45:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°34'N 76°19'W (21.5667N 76.3167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 104 miles (167 km) to the E (83°) from Camagüey, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,408m (4,619ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 44kts (~ 50.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the WNW (291°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 82° at 26kts (From the E at ~ 29.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 34 nautical miles (39 statute miles) to the WNW (296°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 999mb (29.50 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open from the north to the west
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 56kts (~ 64.4mph) in the east quadrant at 20:12:00Z

I will mention that HGX is talking about increasing rain chances for SE TX on Tuesday. The GFS and Euro differ a bit, but there are hints of a weakness or inverted trough developing and that could be what the GFS is sniffing as a reason we are seeing some Westward trends today via that model. We will see.

srainhoutx wrote:18Z GFS drifting W at hour 108...

I guess it is time to start talking about it. This scenario has been a concern since a couple of days ago. There were/are indications that Isaac would pull stationary just off or on shore and get sent west across LA and on into Texas.

Something to consider.

I know it's off topic but do we still have the old Ike thread anywhere?

CaliforniaSux wrote:I know it's off topic but do we still have the old Ike thread anywhere?

Unfortunately, those old platform threads were removed from BELO's server long ago. We are on our own dedicated server these days as improvements have been made since we received our new platform from the good folks at KHOU in Feb 2010.

You can pull-up the Ike NHC forecast image archive from this link:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_3W.shtml

You can see that when Ike was roughly in the same location as Issac (The 9/8/08 11PM Advisory), the NHC had a forecast track that was significantly further west than Isaac. You could extrapolate that track to roughly Cameron, LA. Not too far off...

At this point there would have to be a significant change in the modeling of the ridge placement next week for Issac to head this way. Not completely impossible but very, very, very unlikely.

Most anything can be found on that site.

Enjoy!

biggerbyte wrote:http://web.archive.org/web/200809141758 ... 0771f9fb43

Wow! That brings back some memories. I didn't know the board existed back than, but sure would've been following it if I had known. Sure don't want any more Ikes, too much damage to the house. Though I think we were luckier than most. Insurance was good and we got electricity back quicker than most.

Oops!

biggerbyte wrote:The cone has become much wider this evening. It now reaches as far west as almost all of LA. This spread just goes to show how uncertain the NHC is about Isaac.

Where can I see this cone your talking about? NHC cone still shows just east of NOLA. Thanks