January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month

[srainhoutx]

Where is the bullseye for the heaviest rain in the HOU metro?

There remains some questions regarding the track of the U/L and the Coastal Low. That 'fine tuning' will likely not occur until we see all the 12Z guidance. That said, HGX mentioned this morning S of a line from Columbus to Madisonville. Areas just N of the Coastal low stand a better chance of elevated storms and heavier rainfall with training. We will just have to wait a bit longer and see how it all plays out, IMO.

[TexasBreeze]

The hgx forecast for Harris co. did lower temps later next week and has clouds and 30's at night. Thats interesting

[srainhoutx]

The Canadian continues to suggest a southern track of the U/L across Central/SE TX and has the Coastal low as well. Heavy rains/storms are still suggested and even some possible wrap around precip as the U/L passes on Tuesday.

The Canadian has now trended to a slower ejection E of the next U/L near California and returns light precip on Friday night into Saturday. That model does have the strong Canadian front passing early on Thursday as well. There are suggestions of yet another Coastal low developing next weekend via the Canadian.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS Ensembles continue to advertise chilly weather with some light over running precip of later next week...

[redneckweather]

Sorry but the talks of possible wintry type weather down this far south next weekend will not happen. I mean seriously, where is the cold air? It's just not there, at least this far south that is and with a huge lack of snow cover off to our north? Come on.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro continues to suggest a southern track of the U/L across Central Texas. The Coastal low develops near Corpus as well and the next U/L is shown off shore of N California heading S as a Canadian front dives S into the Plains as a robust Winter Storm develops across the N Plains into the Great Lakes...

[srainhoutx]

Sorry but the talks of possible wintry type weather down this far south next weekend will not happen. I mean seriously, where is the cold air? It's just not there, at least this far south that is and with a huge lack of snow cover off to our north? Come on.

I don't think anyone is honking wintry precip down here (SE TX)...yet. What I do see is big changes ahead as the pattern change progresses and the 'stepping down' process begins in earnest. There are too many indicators from an SSW event near the 20th, +/- a couple of days to a crashing -AO/-EPO/+/-PNA regime and even a -NAO developing. Taking all the signals together, Arctic air will likely build on our side of the globe and that is what is most important regarding any wholesale pattern change, IMO.

[biggerbyte]

All snowpack does is limit moderation of any cold air pushing south. You get a really strong cold front, it will come barreling south to bring sub-freezing temps to our area, snowpack, or no snowpack. Conditions only have to be right in our area to bring winter precip., and with major outbreaks of cold weather, it is non dependent of what is going on up north. It can happen, it has happened, and it will happen again.

[ticka1]

Will we be seeing more rain with the stair-stepping weather pattern change?

[Belmer]

I've noticed all the local weather mets, have lowered there late next week/weekend temps quiet a bit since Friday. Most had forecast temps of about 58-62 for Friday and Saturday of next week. As of this morning news, Local 2, Khou, and abc13 all have lowered daytime highs to 51~54 and all have lows at or near freezing. David Tillman (on abc13) added a 20% of "precipitation". That is the only local met that has added something for the weekend. Wasn't too specific on what 'may' happen as we get into the weekend. I don't expect any of the mets to mention anything (If models continue how they are now) till around Tuesday. 
Also, the Weather Channel's 10 day forecast is always hard to ever trust. Mainly 5+ days out. However, it is starting to get my attention as they have been dropping temps quiet a bit for next Friday. Yesterday morning they had 56 degrees for the Houston area and a low of 40 overnight with a 30% chance of rain. As of this morning, they now have a high of 51 with a low of 37 and still a 30% chance of 'rain'. 

Still about 6 days off and hard to pin point something like this in the working, but definitely something to keep monitoring. If anything, our north and northwest will really need to keep an eye on this. Well, for the ones who like wintry stuff. 

As Srainhoutx says, stay tuned...  

[srainhoutx]

Right on que, showers are starting fire as the boundary slowly lift N and the U/L taps Pacific moisture...

[srainhoutx]

For what it's worth, the 12Z Euro ensmble mean is 'colder' for Central/SE TX on Friday than the operation run suggested...

01082012 12Z Euro Ensembles 12zECMWFENS500mbHeightAnomalyNA120.gif

01082012 12Z Euro Ensembles 12zecmwfenshourly850mbTempAnomalyNA120.gif

01082012 12Z Euro Ensembles Temperature32at32850hPa_North32America_120.gif

[srainhoutx]

The 18Z NAM is a great example of why one needs to focus on the pattern ~vs~ run to run changes. Big differences showing up with the current U/L track and the second...lol...

12Z...offshore...

01082012 12Z NAM nam_namer_072_500_vort_ht.gif

18Z...onshore...

01082012 18Z NAM nam_namer_072_500_vort_ht.gif

[srainhoutx]

And changes out of Midland/Odessa this afternoon increasing snowfall amounts...significantly, for that matter...

.DISCUSSION...
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE MAF CWA
STARTING LATE TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SLOWLY DIGGING SOUTHEAST
AND IS CENTERED NEAR SE AZ AND SW NM. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE
SOUTH AND EAST AND IMPACT THE CWA AFTER 00Z. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. AGAIN...DECIDED
TO GO WITH A NAM/GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE
NAM.

THE STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO START AS RAIN. THE TRANSITION TIME
FROM RAIN TO SNOW FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATION IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND WEST TEXAS AND AND FOR FAR NORTHERN LEA COUNTY IN SE NM WILL BE
BY 06Z. CAA WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST AND SLOWLY TRANSITION
THE RAIN TO SNOW. THE TRANSITION TIME FOR RAIN TO SNOW IN THE
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS...UPPER TRANS PECOS AND THE PERMIAN
BASIN WILL BE FROM 11 TO 12Z...AND LOWER TRANS PECOS AND SOUTHWARD
WILL BE BY 16Z. THE NAM IS FASTER WITH THE CAA MOVING INTO THE
REGION THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF...AND BELIEVE THE NAM HAS A BETTER
HANDLE ON THE CAA AND LEANED MORE TOWARD PRECIP TYPE WITH THE NAM.

MODELS ARE INDICATING GREATER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE THAN PREVIOUS
MODELS RUNS...SO OVERALL RAIN AND SNOWFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED. WITH STRONG INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA...CONVECTIVE
SNOW BANDS ARE POSSIBLE AND ISOLATED THUNDER HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE
FORECAST. AREAS OF CONVECTIVE BANDING COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED AMOUNTS
UP TO 10 INCHES. OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE THIS SYSTEM WILL
RANGE FROM 3 TO 7 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED 10. KEPT CURRENT HAZARDS THE
SAME...CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO LOW WITH SRN COUNTIES WITHIN THE WSW
AS THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW COULD BE LATER THAN THOUGHT...BUT
DUE TO A HIGH END EVENT HAVE LEFT WSW AS IS.

MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT 5H LOW WILL GO JUST S OF KMAF MONDAY NIGHT
AROUND 03Z. AS SUCH WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL STILL PERSIST EVEN THRU
THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS UP 3 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE INTO THE NIGHT ACRS THE PB ESPECIALLY E OF A GENERAL
LINE FROM SEMINOLE TO MIDLAND TO ST. LAWRENCE. WINTER STORM
WARNING WILL EXTEND INTO MONDAY NIGHT IN THE E. FARTHER S WHERE
THE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT SNOW WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT. WITH SO MUCH SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND TUE IT WILL BE A
COLD DAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT MOS...NAM12 SFC TEMPS ARE
MORE REALISTIC BUT PROBABLY STILL TO WARM IN THE W.

[srainhoutx]

A very lengthy and informative discussion from HGX this afternoon. Heavy rainfall and flood potential has been increased and then later in the week, some interesting comments...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
317 PM CST SUN JAN 8 2012

...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE MONDAY ACROSS SE TEXAS...

.DISCUSSION...
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN QUARTER OF SE TX WILL SLOWLY
NUDGE NORTH THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT OVER RED RIVER AND N TX. SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT
THE WARM SECTOR HAS BECOME MORE UNSTABLE WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW OVER THE S ROCKIES
PUSHES INTO TEXAS TOMORROW. SFC LOW TRYING TO TAKE SHAPE IN THE
BIG BEND OF TX AND THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED
AND MOVE INTO S TX BY MON MORNING.

UNDER NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES A FLOOD WATCH MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR
TOMORROW. WHILE GROUNDS HAVE GOTTEN SOME MOISTURE BACK INTO THEM
ACROSS THE AREA...STILL NOT ENOUGH TO NEED A WATCH. HOWEVER...DO
THINK THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT TRAIN COULD PRESENT A SMALL
THREAT OF FLOODING SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY
TOMORROW. WITH ALL OF THE MODELS BASICALLY AGREEING THAT IT IS
GOING TO RAIN TOMORROW...FINALLY BUMPED POPS UP TO 100 AREA WIDE
AND MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL.

MODELS HAVE UPPER LOW REACHING BIG BEND AREA BY 00Z TUE WITH
STRONG JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS S AND C TX. STRONG LARGE SCALE
ASCENT IS EXPECTED OVER SE TX FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WHICH WILL
SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL. BOTH THE NAM/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRECIP
WATER REACHING 1.4-1.6 INCHES WHICH MAKE HEAVY RAINFALL A
POSSIBILITY. THINK RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE CLOSER TO 2 INCHES
ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL INCREASE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE
FORECAST AND HWO TO 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISO 4. AREAS THAT REACH
3-4 INCHES OF RAIN WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR FLOODING. THE
OTHER ISSUE WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER PRIMARILY FROM 09Z TO 18Z MON.
BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST SHOW
INSTABILITY OF AROUND 1000 J/KG WHICH WILL BE JUST MARGINAL
ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY SUPPORT STRONGER UPDRAFTS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE QUITE STRONG SO POSSIBLE TO GET SOME UPDRAFTS TO ROTATE.
LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENOUGH BUT THE NAM SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN
THE WINDS IN THE 800-700MB LAYER WHICH MAY LIMIT LOW LEVEL
ROTATION. STILL 0-3KM SRH VALUES RANGE FROM 100-200 M2/S2 ALONG
THE COAST AND WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR ANY ROTATING STORMS THAT
ORGANIZE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A BRIEF TORNADO. AGAIN THE THREAT
SEEMS TO BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF I-10 WHERE
INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR CAN BE MAXIMIZED. THE THREAT
MAINLY HINGES ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WHICH LOOKS TO BE
LIMITED AT THIS TIME BUT STILL NEEDS TO BE MONITORED. OTHERWISE
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE THE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.

UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES ACROSS THE STATE ON TUE WITH A DRY SLOT
PUNCHING IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS SE TX. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MON NIGHT WITH NW WINDS BEHIND IT ON TUE.
THERE MAY BE SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUE WITH
THE UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX. SFC LOW SHOULD BE WELL
EAST INTO N LA. FORECAST WILL KEEP SOME POPS GOING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUE FOR THE FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH AND ANY
WRAP AROUND PRECIP. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END DURING THE AFTERNOON
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT.
LONG WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO DEEPEN OVER THE MIDWEST BY 12Z THU.
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING
INTO THE AREA. ECMWF/GFS NOW HAVE THE FRONT PUSHING OFF THE COAST
BY 12Z THU WITH SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA BY FRI MORNING. HAVE
LOWERED TEMPS ACROSS THE BOARD WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION THU AND
THE SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA FRI. MAY HAVE A SHORTWAVE OR TWO PUSH
BY THE AREA THU/FRI SO WILL KEEP SOME CLOUD COVER IN THE FORECAST
AS WELL. MODELS BRING BACK SOME MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND SO WILL GO
WITH 20 POPS ON DAY 8. LOOKS LIKE THE END OF NEXT WEEK WILL
FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR A CHANGE AND FEEL MORE LIKE WINTER.

[srainhoutx]

I missed this earlier, but it gives you an idea just how fluid this situation may well be as the hours pass...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
329 PM CST SUN JAN 8 2012

TXZ212-082145-
WALLER-
329 PM CST SUN JAN 8 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 328 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTH CENTRAL WALLER COUNTY ABOUT 10 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF TODD MISSION...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THIS STORM
HAS SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING.

FUNNEL CLOUDS...HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...WINDS GREATER
THAN 40 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER RURAL PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WALLER
COUNTY.

[srainhoutx]

San Angelo issues Winter Storm Warning for their NW CWA including Sweetwater and expand the Winter Storm Watch closer to San Angelo and Abilene.

[srainhoutx]

Lubbock issues Winter Storm Warning for their southern CWA S of LUB proper.

[Katdaddy]

We just had a heavy but brief burst of tropical rain in League City. Picked up a quick 0.08" however this just the beginning to what is shaping up to a significant weather event for tomorrow. Its been along time since the Houston-Galveston AFD has mentioned a potential for flooding should training set up over a specific area. Also the possibilty of severe weather remains for areas S of I-10.

[Belmer]

We just had a heavy but brief burst of tropical rain in League City. Picked up a quick 0.08" however this just the beginning to what is shaping up to a significant weather event for tomorrow. Its been along time since the Houston-Galveston AFD has mentioned a potential for flooding should training set up over a specific area. Also the possibilty of severe weather remains for areas S of I-10.

Yep, it made it's way up 45 and we got it good in Pasadena as well. Sunshining will it's pouring. Don't see that very often.