June 2021:

[Cpv17]

Man the GFS is going to give us a headache, it doesn't know what to do with this potential system

Hopefully by this weekend we’ll know a lil more.

There isnt a storm...that's why it's having problems lol

Yeah it doesn’t have an initialization point so that’s definitely a factor.

[Stratton20]

I know haha, I just
hope we get more consistency by friday or saturday tbh

[DoctorMu]

From HGX discussion this afternoon.

.TROPICAL...
The Gulf Coast weathersphere is abuzz with the potential for
tropical development around the Central American gyre, with some
model guidance suggesting a tropical cyclone at some point next
week. Will this happen? Well, it`s hurricane season, so of course
it can happen! Really though, the models that do develop a
tropical cyclone are plausible, but so are the models that do not.
We`ll be keeping a close eye on things in the days to come, but at
this point, we just simply don`t know enough to say with
confidence just yet how this plays out. Stick with us, trust the
process - we`ll continue to tell you everything we do know, and
the important things we still need to figure out

Just hoping for some lemonade. If it heads for the LATX border as an organized system, my lawn will crisp again, just like storm after storm last year.

[DoctorMu]

Man the GFS is going to give us a headache, it doesn't know what to do with this potential system

Hopefully by this weekend we’ll know a lil more.

There isnt a storm...that's why it's having problems lol

Variance in Initial conditions, or lack thereof kills reliable iterations.

[DoctorMu]

Hopefully by this weekend we’ll know a lil more.

There isnt a storm...that's why it's having problems lol

Yeah it doesn’t have an initialization point so that’s definitely a factor.

https://youtu.be/IX2bE-OBtwk

[Stratton20]

Out of curiosity has their ever been a time when a model has picked up on a storm beyond 9-10 days and that storm actually happened or formed? That is something that has me curious if its happened before

[djmike]

From HGX discussion this afternoon.

.TROPICAL...
The Gulf Coast weathersphere is abuzz with the potential for
tropical development around the Central American gyre, with some
model guidance suggesting a tropical cyclone at some point next
week. Will this happen? Well, it`s hurricane season, so of course
it can happen! Really though, the models that do develop a
tropical cyclone are plausible, but so are the models that do not.
We`ll be keeping a close eye on things in the days to come, but at
this point, we just simply don`t know enough to say with
confidence just yet how this plays out. Stick with us, trust the
process - we`ll continue to tell you everything we do know, and
the important things we still need to figure out

Just hoping for some lemonade. If it heads for the LATX border as an organized system, my lawn will crisp again, just like storm after storm last year.

Please. No TX/La border. Us in Beaumont dont want another ANYTHING. Well...maybe cooler temps, BUT THATS IT! Lolol We’ve had our fair share for the next 50 years. Im done. (Jk...it really is all still exciting to see, watch and predict.)

[jasons2k]

Just checked the gauge - my high today was 97F. Definitely summer now.

[DoctorMu]

From HGX discussion this afternoon.

Just hoping for some lemonade. If it heads for the LATX border as an organized system, my lawn will crisp again, just like storm after storm last year.

Please. No TX/La border. Us in Beaumont dont want another ANYTHING. Well...maybe cooler temps, BUT THATS IT! Lolol We’ve had our fair share for the next 50 years. Im done. (Jk...it really is all still exciting to see, watch and predict.)

We're with you Mike!

5 times bitten, 10X shy!

[DoctorMu]

Just checked the gauge - my high today was 97F. Definitely summer now.

I thought College Station was hot. We peaked at 94-95°F. What circle of hell do you live in?

[jasons2k]

Just checked the gauge - my high today was 97F. Definitely summer now.

I thought College Station was hot. We peaked at 94-95°F. What circle of hell do you live in?

IAH hit 95F. I’m usually a degree or two hotter in the summer (along with surrounding gauges I check) and I’m usually 1-2 degrees colder in the winter mornings. Seems about right since I’m a touch further away from salt water.

[don]

Out of curiosity has their ever been a time when a model has picked up on a storm beyond 9-10 days and that storm actually happened or formed? That is something that has me curious if its happened before

Yes, and it happens more often than it use to. Due too the models being better at tropical genesis than they were 10+ years ago.Models now produce much less phantom canes than they use too also.

[Cpv17]

The only model that’s been somewhat consistent is the Euro with this system. All the other models are all over the place. No telling what’s going to happen.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 yeah thats why my biggest attention is on the EURO, not saying it will be right, but it has been pretty consistent with developing the system, Im not even gonna bother looking at the GFS until we get some sort of agreement

[Stratton20]

00z Euro has a strong tropical storm heading North towards Houston or just east of houston

[Cpv17]

The latest Euro and GFS are in complete agreement right now on timing and track lol go figure! They both have a tropical storm hitting around the TX/LA border in 10 days.

[don]

0Z Euro

[djmike]

0Z Euro

I SAID NOOOO TX/LA BORDER! Stop it! <wink wink>

[Stormlover2020]

One thing to remember this year we have airlines busy!! Last year we didn’t due to Covid so we couldn’t get as much data model wise, our commercial planes collect temps pressure dew points and it's all fed into the models, like mobile weather stations.

[Pas_Bon]

0Z Euro

I SAID NOOOO TX/LA BORDER! Stop it! <wink wink>

Well, these model runs are happening because you’re an A&M fan.