June 2021:

[Stormlover2020]

Gfs and cmc dropped it

[Stormlover2020]

Oh I don’t trust anything till something actually develops

[Stratton20]

I will say this though, as good as the gfs is, it absolutely sucks with developing systems and cyclogenisis, as for the CMC well its an ok model but not the greatest, The GFS is notorious for not picking up on a system until it develops into a depression, not saying the model cant be right here, but I definitely have noticed that with the GFS, definitely had that problem last year

[Stratton20]

I will say this though, as good as the gfs is, it absolutely sucks with developing systems and cyclogenisis, as for the CMC well its an ok model but not the greatest, The GFS is notorious for not picking up on a system until it develops into a depression, not saying the model cant be right here, but I definitely have noticed that with the GFS, definitely had that problem last year, and the CMC hasnt dropped the storm, just looked at the run, its just further south going into mexico lol, the GFS still shows that area of moisture moving into Texas, regardless looks like more rain next week

[mcheer23]

Gfs and cmc dropped it

CMC didn't drop it

GFS wanted to develop the system, but all the energy went into Mexico.
GEFS looks about the same as 6z.
We'll see what EURO does.

[mcheer23]

EURO keeps the system. Shows a slow moving Tropical Storm taking aim at Texas coast.

[don]

12z EURO

[Stratton20]

Yep definitely watching that, even though models have been flipp flopping especially the GFS, I did notice prior to this run the GFS also had a slow moving system, Euro definitely seems the most bullish but definitely worth watching, steering currents also

[Cpv17]

EURO keeps the system. Shows a slow moving Tropical Storm taking aim at Texas coast.

Probably would be taking aim at the TX/LA border unless it hooks left. That would leave us high and dry but that’s gonna change 100 times in the next few days.

[Stormlover2020]

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/ ... 2-240.html

[jasons2k]

The timing of the Euro, if headed this way, would be after our hole is dug but before the plaster is blasted. Not good timing for me personally on that run.

[Cpv17]

Regardless if we get a system here or not, we could see a return to wet weather next week.

[Rip76]

Regardless if we get a system here or not, we could see a return to wet weather next week.

I’m in

[don]

From HGX discussion this afternoon.

.TROPICAL...
The Gulf Coast weathersphere is abuzz with the potential for
tropical development around the Central American gyre, with some
model guidance suggesting a tropical cyclone at some point next
week. Will this happen? Well, it`s hurricane season, so of course
it can happen! Really though, the models that do develop a
tropical cyclone are plausible, but so are the models that do not.
We`ll be keeping a close eye on things in the days to come, but at
this point, we just simply don`t know enough to say with
confidence just yet how this plays out. Stick with us, trust the
process - we`ll continue to tell you everything we do know, and
the important things we still need to figure out

[Stratton20]

Man the GFS is going to give us a headache, it doesn't know what to do with this potential system

[Cpv17]

Man the GFS is going to give us a headache, it doesn't know what to do with this potential system

Hopefully by this weekend we’ll know a lil more.

[Stratton20]

I agree

[Kingwood36]

Man the GFS is going to give us a headache, it doesn't know what to do with this potential system

Hopefully by this weekend we’ll know a lil more.

There isnt a storm...that's why it's having problems lol

[Kingwood36]

Off topic...can we change our usernames on here? I don't live in Kingwood anymore and I'd like my name to reflect where I'm at now...anyone know if that's possible and how you go about doing it?

[jasons2k]

Off topic...can we change our usernames on here? I don't live in Kingwood anymore and I'd like my name to reflect where I'm at now...anyone know if that's possible and how you go about doing it?

Send a request to the Admins. That's how they changed mine.

Latest TWO:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Jun 9 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad trough of low pressure has developed over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea associated with a westward-moving tropical wave.
However, significant development of this system is not expected
while the disturbance moves west-northwestward over Central America
during the next couple of days. Regardless, this system could
produce heavy rainfall across northern Colombia and portions of
Central America from Honduras southward late this week and over the
weekend. See products from your local meteorological service for
more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart