March 2019: Strong Front/Rain Chance To End March

[srainhoutx]

Wednesday afternoon weather briefing from Jeff:

High pressure that has been in control of the weather over the area since the frontal passage on Monday evening is starting to shift eastward allowing a return of Gulf moisture.

ESE to SE winds this afternoon will become more SE on Thursday. With surface observations showing upper 50 degree dewpoints already into Palacios, this more moist air mass is poised to make a return to much of the region on Thursday and Friday. Not seeing anything that would be much of a focus for rainfall until Saturday, but can’t rule out a few south to north moving showers on Friday.

On Saturday as surface cold front will approach the region from the north and this feature along with disturbances embedded with the SW flow aloft will begin to work with the increased moisture in place for increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms. Appears the front will move through the region during the afternoon and evening hours on Saturday and this will focus the greatest rain chances in that time period.

Upper trough hangs back over the SW US and does not eject across TX until late Sunday. This will result in moisture flowing SSW to NNE over the top of the surface cold pool on Sunday likely resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms. With cold air advection, clouds, and rain, highs on Sunday will struggle to reach 60 over much of the area. Passage of the upper level trough on Sunday evening will allow for a much drier air mass to settle into the region for the start of next week with rain chances gradually ending Sunday night into Monday. It will also be fairly cool for early April with lows in the 40’s and highs in the 60’s.

Rainfall over the weekend is expected to average .5 to 1 inch which will be welcomed as March has been fairly dry over the region. In fact the drought monitor shows increasing “dryness” from the Rio Grande plains into the Matagorda Bay region.

[Katdaddy]

Another beautiful Spring day ahead with increasing high clouds. Temps this morning mostly in the 50s across SE TX.

[jasons2k]

Rain chances this weekend are spread out and never get over 50%. I wonder if it’s a question of if or when.

[tireman4]

FXUS64 KHGX 281759
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1259 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2019

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS have finally lifted across SE TX...likely with the aid
of the 15-20kt S/SE winds just above the surface mixing down. We
could see some gusty conditions this afternoon. Otherwise...will
keep with this morning`s trend of MVFR CIGS for tomorrow morning.
Isolated streamer WAA type showers will also be possible for the
early Fri morning hours, but will hold off any mention (probably
VCSH) at this time. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2019/

UPDATE...
No real changes necessary to ongoing forecast today. Increasing
clouds with breezy south-southeast winds areawide, with max temps
well into the mid to upper 70s away from the immediate coast.

Evans

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 78 60 79 61 74 / 0 10 20 10 30
Houston (IAH) 75 61 77 63 79 / 0 10 20 10 40
Galveston (GLS) 72 66 74 67 74 / 0 10 20 10 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

[jasons2k]

Rain chances have been bumped up this weekend. This is a good trend.

[Katdaddy]

A few lights showers this morning across SE TX as weak disturbance moves across the area. Expect a warm and breezy afternoon. Saturday will have high temps near 80F with showers and a few thunderstorms ahead of a strong cold front that will move across the area tomorrow afternoon and evening.

[srainhoutx]

Friday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

Short wave moving across the region this morning coupled with returning low level moisture is resulting in scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. This activity will move east of the area by noon with decreasing clouds this afternoon and highs near 80 under continued southerly onshore flow.

Moisture begins to deepen tonight and could start to see showers develop early on Saturday well ahead of a fairly strong cold front that will cross the area Saturday afternoon and evening. Area forecast soundings for Saturday afternoon show a fairly decent cap in place across the region and with only modest surface heating, think the capping will hold. Greatest potential for the cap to break will be south of HWY 105 during the mid to late afternoon hours if surface temperatures can reach the lower 80’s. These appears to be a bit of a stretch given cloudy skies on Saturday, but not impossible. If the cap were to break a few strong thunderstorms would be possible.

Front moves into the Gulf of Mexico Saturday evening with strong cold air advection regime post front. Temperatures will fall into the 50’s Saturday evening and into the 40’s by Sunday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will continue behind the frontal boundary as moisture continues in place and lift comes to bear across the region in to form of the sub-tropical jet stream.

Will continue at least 40% rain chances into Sunday as moisture really does not dry out much and favor the areas SW of a Columbus to Houston to High Island line. IT will be fairly cool on Sunday with cold air advection, clouds, and rain, and expect temperatures to remain in the 50’s for much of the day. With north winds, wind chills on Sunday will be in the 40’s.

Another short wave approaches on Monday afternoon, and while moisture begins to decrease, this feature looks fairly strong, so think with even meager amounts of moisture showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible on Monday afternoon.

Onshore flow begins to return next Tuesday and the overall pattern looks to remain fairly active with disturbances moving out of MX and across TX for much of next week with rain chances again on Wednesday and then toward the end of the week.

Rainfall amounts over the weekend will likely average .5 to 1 inch over the region with the greatest amounts around Matagorda Bay. This will be much needed rainfall for much of the area as it has be fairly dry recently.

[jasons2k]

Lots of capping issues...again.

[Katdaddy]

A beautiful late March evening.

[jasons2k]

Rain chances dropped to 40% now!!

[Andrew]

While a broken line of showers will be possible tomorrow, the biggest story will be the cold air filtering south. Highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s will be likely for most across SE and Central Texas. A slight chance of rain will be possible through Monday. Otherwise, gradual warming should occur late next week before another front enters the state.

[Cpv17]

Wow, the 0z Euro is wet..basically showing 2-5” across our area for the next 10 days. Wettest run of the Euro I’ve seen in a very long time. GFS is pretty similar.

[srainhoutx]

Colder air is barreling across the State and should be nearing College Station by noon, Metro Houston by around 2 PM and off the Coast by 6 PM. I don't see much of a chance for any significant rainfall. The cap looks to strong this go around and available moisture is not that impressive. Perhaps some over running light rain overnight into tomorrow morning. You'll need a jacket tomorrow morning and again on Monday morning!

[jasons2k]

30% today and down to 20% tonight. 3rd system meltdown in a row. Cap: 3, The Nino: O.

[mckinne63]

Sure could use some rain to wash this pollen away! Allergies are driving me batty! And tired of my car looking like the green hornet.

Will the chillier temps help with the pollen issue?

[Andrew]

Sure could use some rain to wash this pollen away! Allergies are driving me batty! And tired of my car looking like the green hornet.

Will the chillier temps help with the pollen issue?

Finally gave into a car wash, but that only helps for a couple of days.

Rain will help knock the pollen down, but we are just at that point in the year and will be for the next month or so.

[mckinne63]

Sure could use some rain to wash this pollen away! Allergies are driving me batty! And tired of my car looking like the green hornet.

Will the chillier temps help with the pollen issue?

Finally gave into a car wash, but that only helps for a couple of days.

Rain will help knock the pollen down, but we are just at that point in the year and will be for the next month or so.

I've washed my car 3x over the last 3 weeks. Total waste of time and money, but at least my car looked better than than the guy that pulled into the space next to me yesterday. His car had an inch thick of pollen on it. LOL

It was looking like rain earlier, had a few sprinkles, but alas nothing to write home about. Sigh...

[Cromagnum]

Could use a day, maybe 2 tops where we get a good inch or so of rain each time. I'm redoing a patio so hoping it doesn't turn into February again.

[BlueJay]

Good bye March 2019.