January 2019 - Active Progressive WX Pattern Ahead

[Andrew]

I’m having heck learning how to manage uploads! I am officially. T-tard...hope you guys can figure it out! Lol

Hey Crash,

What is your specific issue? You can place it inline if you want and that helps to organize it somewhat. I know it is a little more difficult to do on mobile versus a computer. Let me know if you need any help. Thanks for all the posts you have done.

Ok like when I go to library and select and then it loads I am not sure which one is which so if I tag info to it sometimes it wrong

Yea when things are uploaded and posted they sometimes can get renamed. It does make it a little difficult at times.

[snowman65]

26639F0C-4042-4412-B3A7-9EB7461512EC.pngF90DFDDE-19AC-4261-BCA4-E73ACCA841F6.pngE38C635D-E40C-40B6-BD4B-4B93DD2616DE.png2A496B41-DB88-43B7-BB94-7A22711F711F.pngYES IT COMES GOES AND HAS FOR DAYS...LOL

Nice to see but none of it reaches houston... atleast not yet

the models haven't gotten anything right yet that far out. no reason to believe it's any different this time. it will fade away like the others. anything past 5 days are unicorns, at least this year.

[cperk]

26639F0C-4042-4412-B3A7-9EB7461512EC.pngF90DFDDE-19AC-4261-BCA4-E73ACCA841F6.pngE38C635D-E40C-40B6-BD4B-4B93DD2616DE.png2A496B41-DB88-43B7-BB94-7A22711F711F.pngYES IT COMES GOES AND HAS FOR DAYS...LOL

Nice to see but none of it reaches houston... atleast not yet

the models haven't gotten anything right yet that far out. no reason to believe it's any different this time. it will fade away like the others. anything past 5 days are unicorns, at least this year.

That is not what several pro-mets that have posted on this forum and others are saying. We need to be patient.

[Belmer]

the models haven't gotten anything right yet that far out. no reason to believe it's any different this time. it will fade away like the others. anything past 5 days are unicorns, at least this year.

Synoptically... winter is one of the most challenging seasons to forecast even for the most experienced pro mets who have been doing this their whole life. I'd argue it is much more challenging than predicting a hurricane that is way out in the Atlantic forecasted to move into the Caribbean (7-10 days out) than forecasting a strong cold front with questionable precip 3-5 days out.
There are so many moving parts during all seasons but especially geographically here in the U.S. when it comes to winter. We have the Gulf that can supply warm air advection that can often times halt arctic air from reaching so far south and move it off to the east. You have the Pacific that is active which as we know can cause overrunning precip and cause a warm layer aloft giving us cold rain or even sleet/freezing rain instead of snow. As long as I have been following weather/models (8-10 years) -- every winter has provided its own challenges not only here but across the US (wxchallenge caused plenty of headaches and bust).
This really can all be summed up with the +/- EPO, +/- PNA and +/- NAO. These all can have significant implications on how our weather will materialize. Throw in a three piece split of the Polar Vortex and the SSW event that has been occurring in northern and eastern Russia and models will definitely act more chaotic than normal.

Personally, in my opinion, models actually haven't done all too terrible this year. Going back to October it had a good overall handle on the cold fall snap we had and has been consistent that we would have several pieces of energy from the Pacific move the region continuing into February. I see no signs of that pattern changing. Late November called for a mid December warmth with a possible cool down into the New Year. We have seen just that, though temperatures have been mild as of late. Models will continue to be volatile the next 3-5 days as it is starting to recognize that a significant pattern change is developing and the SSW is finally starting to show (takes 2-3 weeks to see results anyway once SSW begins which is right on cue). I have no doubt the U.S. will get slammed with very cold temperatures in the next two weeks and even beyond. Right now the set up looks to favor the brunt of the cold to the north and east of us with the Great Lakes region shaping up to be an icebox as the PV slides south of the Hudson. But all it takes is one minor change synoptically to have a 180 degree change in our weather here along the Texas coast. If you're looking for less heartbreak or less challenges in the forecast you'll have to move further up north (Kansas City, MO is my sweet spot).

NWS in Forth Worth has even put out a graphic hinting at the murky changes ahead for next weekend into the week after -

[Belmer]

Tropical Tidbits is getting a run for their money with this site (probably becoming one of my favorites)

But if you like cold, this is a great pattern shaping up for much of the U.S. (unless you're west of the Rockies). You get a cross-polar flow out of this set up and a bit more of an active STJ... it will make winter-weather lovers more than excited. Baby steps in the 'step down' process of this pattern change. Again, pattern is looking like the brunt of this will really hit the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic, but signs are slowly moving toward a more deeper, southern route.

site: wxcharts.eu

[Cromagnum]

Yep, this "winter" sucks. It's like some goody amalgamation of spring and fall every day.

[Kingwood36]

When is this cold expected to get here?

[Belmer]

When is this cold expected to get here?

This time next weekend we should be looking at a true cold front coming down from the north. This will be the first of many probably continuing into the rest of January and early February. Much of next week looks chilly relatively speaking depending on the exact displacement of the cold building up in Canada. Anytime I see -30s in Alaska followed by temperatures rising to +single/double digits followed by another dip in -10 to -20's is a good sign. Could bring highs as low as the upper 30s/low 40s across the area (that will mainly depend on cloud cover/overrunning) but as of now it is looking like temps will struggle to get much above 50F into the first half of next week.

Side note - you want cold? Wind chill in McGrath, AK yesterday morning was -74F.

[Cpv17]

Tropical Tidbits is getting a run for their money with this site (probably becoming one of my favorites)

But if you like cold, this is a great pattern shaping up for much of the U.S. (unless you're west of the Rockies). You get a cross-polar flow out of this set up and a bit more of an active STJ... it will make winter-weather lovers more than excited. Baby steps in the 'step down' process of this pattern change. Again, pattern is looking like the brunt of this will really hit the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic, but signs are slowly moving toward a more deeper, southern route.

site: wxcharts.eu

Actually, the EPS & GEFS ensemble mean has the core of the cold aimed more towards Texas rather than the southeast.

[South_Texas_Storms]

Do you have a personal weather company, or are you an on air or behind the scenes met?

I'm at a private weather company here in the Houston area. I actually work with wxman57.

[Kingwood36]

Do you have a personal weather company, or are you an on air or behind the scenes met?

I'm at a private weather company here in the Houston area. I actually work with wxman57.

Out deepest condolences lol is he not buying the cold yet or is he still on his hellish summer kick

[Cpv17]

Do you have a personal weather company, or are you an on air or behind the scenes met?

I'm at a private weather company here in the Houston area. I actually work with wxman57.

Out deepest condolences lol is he not buying the cold yet or is he still on his hellish summer kick

He posts on storm2k. I rarely see him post on here, but he’s been on the cold train ever since around Christmas time saying that he thinks around mid January things will turn cold and during the past few days he has kept on saying that the Euro is showing cross polar flow.

[South_Texas_Storms]

I'm at a private weather company here in the Houston area. I actually work with wxman57.

Out deepest condolences lol is he not buying the cold yet or is he still on his hellish summer kick

He posts on storm2k. I rarely see him post on here, but he’s been on the cold train ever since around Christmas time saying that he thinks around mid January things will turn cold and during the past few days he has kept on saying that the Euro is showing cross polar flow.

Yep, he is fearing the worst for cold weather returning soon. He's trying to build a wall in Canada to keep the cold air from making it here.

[CRASHWX]

6EC4CEF0-B60E-4C1A-9AEB-68909D416BFC.jpeg

FB1A6582-A8D5-41CA-96E9-27D371C49F5B.jpeg

97D5CB05-1B00-4741-9B89-D3B4A4BDCB27.jpeg

97D5CB05-1B00-4741-9B89-D3B4A4BDCB27.jpeg

[CRASHWX]

THE COLD WHIP IS COMING! IMO not a matter of if just when.

[Kingwood36]

6EC4CEF0-B60E-4C1A-9AEB-68909D416BFC.jpegFB1A6582-A8D5-41CA-96E9-27D371C49F5B.jpeg97D5CB05-1B00-4741-9B89-D3B4A4BDCB27.jpeg97D5CB05-1B00-4741-9B89-D3B4A4BDCB27.jpeg

That sure is pretty1

[CRASHWX]

6EC4CEF0-B60E-4C1A-9AEB-68909D416BFC.jpegFB1A6582-A8D5-41CA-96E9-27D371C49F5B.jpeg97D5CB05-1B00-4741-9B89-D3B4A4BDCB27.jpeg97D5CB05-1B00-4741-9B89-D3B4A4BDCB27.jpeg

That sure is pretty1

It sure is colorful anyway! Lol

[sambucol]

My head is spinning with all the maps. Are we in SETX going to be below freezing next Monday the 21st? And if so, for how long? Then I heard another push of Arctic air is coming down around Jan 25 or so. Is that one really cold air if what I heard was right? Thanks in advance for any help. I’ve got to make a decision about preparing 2 houses and lawns ASAP. Not much free time to do that!

[DoctorMu]

Tropical Tidbits is getting a run for their money with this site (probably becoming one of my favorites)

But if you like cold, this is a great pattern shaping up for much of the U.S. (unless you're west of the Rockies). You get a cross-polar flow out of this set up and a bit more of an active STJ... it will make winter-weather lovers more than excited. Baby steps in the 'step down' process of this pattern change. Again, pattern is looking like the brunt of this will really hit the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic, but signs are slowly moving toward a more deeper, southern route.

site: wxcharts.eu

Actually, the EPS & GEFS ensemble mean has the core of the cold aimed more towards Texas rather than the southeast.

GEFS has a solid 10 days of major cold beginning next weekend. We shall see.

[sambucol]

Will we be under freezing for hours or days? Is this a pipe busting cold for SETX?