LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025
SE Texas will find itself under the influence of a large, deep
subtropical ridge through the duration of the long term forecast
period. Thus, the hot pattern that is blessing us with its
presence in the short term will continue into the long term.
Though the ridge will be relatively well stacked, the center of
the ridging is expected to be farther east in the lower levels,
allowing for continued deep LL southeasterly flow from the Gulf.
This will keep conditions relatively humid. So expect more
afternoons in the 90s with heat index values over 100. Coastal
areas are expected to be in the mid/upper 80s. Area-wide overnight
lows will generally be in the 70s.
In terms of hazardous heat, the primary concern is near the
beginning of the long term, where high temperatures coupled with
high humidity and lower winds will likely enhance the risk
associated with the heat. As we head into early next week,
subtle changes in the LL pattern may result in increasing
southeasterly winds, which would reduce (though not eliminate) the
heat`s associated health risk. Regardless, the long term is very
hot, especially for May. PLEASE remember to practice heat safety
precautions.
Self
&&
.
.MARINE...
Issued at 101 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025
South to south-southeast winds are expected to increase again
overnight and into Thursday morning. Gusts over 30 knots will be
possible once again. These winds are expected to decrease somewhat
again as we head into Thursday afternoon, with a Small Craft
Advisory in effect through Thursday. That being said, hazardous
winds and especially seas may continue into Friday. Winds and seas
should decrease on Friday into Saturday as the gradient eases. The
gradient may steepen again early next week, bringing another
chance of increasing southeast winds and seas.
May 2025
Just curious, are we getting some haze from somewhere?
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6091
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
This may save our bacon.....may....although I have an outdoor meet to work this weekend. Ughh
Though the ridge will be relatively well stacked, the center of
the ridging is expected to be farther east in the lower levels,
allowing for continued deep LL southeasterly flow from the Gulf.
This will keep conditions relatively humid. So expect more
afternoons in the 90s with heat index values over 100. Coastal
areas are expected to be in the mid/upper 80s. Area-wide overnight
lows will generally be in the 70s.
Though the ridge will be relatively well stacked, the center of
the ridging is expected to be farther east in the lower levels,
allowing for continued deep LL southeasterly flow from the Gulf.
This will keep conditions relatively humid. So expect more
afternoons in the 90s with heat index values over 100. Coastal
areas are expected to be in the mid/upper 80s. Area-wide overnight
lows will generally be in the 70s.
Max temp busted 10 degrees too high. Only hit mid 90s where I'm at.
It never reached 100°F in Aggieland yesterday. 97°G high with a breeze and *only* a 95°F high. It didn't suck as much as it could. Heading to NC Friday after hosting a conference. It looks like low 90s in NC (about 10°F above average), so ironically not much different.
Good news. Same here. The ridge stayed Gulf side. Small victories!
The ridge will remain mostly south of us, but is bouncing lows off like a rubber ball in long range forecasts until the end of the month.
Yep, a steady 15 mph southerly breeze pumping through. Not quite hot enough for the wind not to have a cooling effect.tireman4 wrote: ↑Wed May 14, 2025 1:52 pm This may save our bacon.....may....although I have an outdoor meet to work this weekend. Ughh
Though the ridge will be relatively well stacked, the center of
the ridging is expected to be farther east in the lower levels,
allowing for continued deep LL southeasterly flow from the Gulf.
This will keep conditions relatively humid. So expect more
afternoons in the 90s with heat index values over 100. Coastal
areas are expected to be in the mid/upper 80s. Area-wide overnight
lows will generally be in the 70s.
98 here today. Didn’t have much full sun today. Noticed some lawns are already starting to look parched. The countdown to the Florida trip is on. Pretty soon I’ll be done with this place for awhile.
Tireman and other administrators and moderators- I am still getting a red-pink bar with the message
"You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post". I have cookies enabled and am a paying member every month. But I can’t see the different things that people are posting. It’s been going on a couple of weeks and this is the second time I have requested the problem be cleared up. Help!
"You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post". I have cookies enabled and am a paying member every month. But I can’t see the different things that people are posting. It’s been going on a couple of weeks and this is the second time I have requested the problem be cleared up. Help!
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6091
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
234
FXUS64 KHGX 151052
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
552 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025
I really don`t wanna sound like a broken record (our temperatures
have that covered already) buuut the forecast is still hot.
Southeast TX will remain under the influence of mid to upper level
ridging aloft and onshore flow at the surface leading to the
dreaded combination of heat and humidity. If there`s any
consolation though, it`s that temperatures may be about a degree
or so lower today compared to yesterday and we`ll keep that
southerly breeze going...hey I`m looking for any morsel of good
news just like y`all! However, that comes with the tradeoff of
gradually increasing moisture as a frontal boundary approaches the
region later today...just close enough for convergence along the
boundary to bring PW values near the 75th percentile (~1.55"). The
end result of that is widespread heat indices in the triple
digits with air temperatures mainly topping out in the mid to
upper 90s. Expecting more of the same for Friday with one key
difference...a non-zero chance for rain?!
The previously mentioned frontal boundary will remain just north of
the Brazos Valley going into Friday. There will also be a dry line
to the west/northwest. Most of the 00Z CAM guidance depicts some
convection firing off of that dry line and drifting eastward. There
will be a capping inversion aloft that these potential storms would
have to battle through, so it`s just a matter of will they survive
long enough to bring rain to portions of the Brazos Valley/the Piney
Woods on Friday afternoon. The chances of that occuring are low, but
not zero...so I threw in 15% PoPs to cover that possibility. Just
wanted to mention that before we get back to the well above normal
temperature talk! Friday will feature another day of high
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s with widespread heat indices in
the triple digits. Overnight temperatures will offer minimal relief
as we only bottom out in the mid to upper 70s, which would put us at
least near record high minimum temperatures.
Speaking of records, on Wednesday we set three record high maximum
temperatures at College Station, the City of Houston (Bush Airport),
and Houston/Hobby Airport along with a record high minimum
temperature at Palacios. It`s very fitting that the first day that
Palacios is reporting again it greets us with a record. Anyway, I
was curious on just how abnormal it is to be this hot this early and
did a little digging around. For the City of Houston, the average
first day for temperatures at or above 95F is June 13th...this
means that we beat the average by approximately one month. Before
this year, the last time we`ve seen temperatures this hot this early
in May was back in 1967 when the City of Houston reached 96F on May
8th. Since the CoH reached 95F on May 13th, that makes May 13, 2025
the FIFTH earliest day in the year on record to reach 95+F...neat!
Suffice to say, it`s rather unusual to be this hot this early...we
did the maths! This is highlighted in the Heat Risk map, which
reflects a moderate to major threat (levels 2 & 3 out of 4) of heat
related impacts across Southeast Texas throughout the forecast
period. Remember that our bodies are not yet acclimated to hot
temperatures this early in the season. These "shoulder" season
events tend to cause spikes in heat-related illnesses, so be sure to
take the proper precautions to keep you and your loved ones
(including your pets) safe from the heat.
Batiste
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025
The ridge pattern will continue through the long-term period,
resulting in a prolonged period of hot and humid conditions.
Afternoon temperatures will continue to rise into the 90s each day,
with heat indices in the 100 degree range. Coastal locations will
see highs reach into the mid to upper 80s. Overnight lows across the
area will be in the 70s.
Continue to be mindful of heat safety by avoiding strenuous activity
during peak heating, stay hydrated, and LOOK BEFORE YOU LOCK.
Adams
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 552 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025
A mixture of IFR/MVFR ceilings this morning as low-level clouds
continue to develop...expect this to last till around 14-15Z
before conditions steadily improve to VFR. With a 35-45 kt LLJ
overhead this morning, included in a prevailing line of LLWS for
northern and western sites through the morning hours. Another
round of gusty southerly winds is on tap for today with gusts
around 25 kt through the afternoon. Going into the evening hours,
sustained winds will subside to around 10-13 kt with MVFR ceilings
building back in from south to north. These reduced ceilings will
last into Friday morning.
Batiste
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025
South to south-southeast winds will increase again overnight through
this morning. Gusts over 30 knots will be possible once again. These
winds are expected to decrease slightly as we head into the
afternoon hours today. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through
Today; however, hazardous winds and especially seas may continue
into Friday. Winds and seas should decrease on Friday into Saturday
as the gradient eases. The gradient may steepen again early next
week, bringing another chance of increasing southeast winds and seas.
Self/Adams
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025
With multiple days of near-record to record-breaking heat expected
over the upcoming week, here`s a look at the daily high temperature
records through Tuesday (May 20th).
May 15th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 95F (1925)
- Houston/IAH: 94F (2018)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (1978)
- Palacios: 93F (1943)
- Galveston: 89F (2022)
May 16th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 95F (2003)
- Houston/IAH: 94F (2022)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (2022)
- Palacios: 88F (2010)
- Galveston: 90F (2022)
May 17th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 96F (1925)
- Houston/IAH: 96F (2018)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (2018)
- Palacios: 93F (2003)
- Galveston: 90F (2020)
May 18th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 98F (2022)
- Houston/IAH: 95F (2022)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (2022)
- Palacios: 89F (2022)
- Galveston: 90F (2022)
May 19th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 94F (2022)
- Houston/IAH: 95F (2003)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (2008)
- Palacios: 89F (2024)
- Galveston: 90F (2022)
May 20th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 96F (2022)
- Houston/IAH: 95F (2020)
- Houston/Hobby: 95F (2008)
- Palacios: 95F (1943)
- Galveston: 91F (2022)
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 97 75 96 76 / 0 0 20 0
Houston (IAH) 96 77 95 76 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 86 77 86 77 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ330-
335-350-355.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 1 PM CDT this afternoon
through Friday morning for GMZ330-335-350-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ370-375.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from this evening through
Friday morning for GMZ370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....Adams
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Self
FXUS64 KHGX 151052
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
552 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025
I really don`t wanna sound like a broken record (our temperatures
have that covered already) buuut the forecast is still hot.
Southeast TX will remain under the influence of mid to upper level
ridging aloft and onshore flow at the surface leading to the
dreaded combination of heat and humidity. If there`s any
consolation though, it`s that temperatures may be about a degree
or so lower today compared to yesterday and we`ll keep that
southerly breeze going...hey I`m looking for any morsel of good
news just like y`all! However, that comes with the tradeoff of
gradually increasing moisture as a frontal boundary approaches the
region later today...just close enough for convergence along the
boundary to bring PW values near the 75th percentile (~1.55"). The
end result of that is widespread heat indices in the triple
digits with air temperatures mainly topping out in the mid to
upper 90s. Expecting more of the same for Friday with one key
difference...a non-zero chance for rain?!
The previously mentioned frontal boundary will remain just north of
the Brazos Valley going into Friday. There will also be a dry line
to the west/northwest. Most of the 00Z CAM guidance depicts some
convection firing off of that dry line and drifting eastward. There
will be a capping inversion aloft that these potential storms would
have to battle through, so it`s just a matter of will they survive
long enough to bring rain to portions of the Brazos Valley/the Piney
Woods on Friday afternoon. The chances of that occuring are low, but
not zero...so I threw in 15% PoPs to cover that possibility. Just
wanted to mention that before we get back to the well above normal
temperature talk! Friday will feature another day of high
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s with widespread heat indices in
the triple digits. Overnight temperatures will offer minimal relief
as we only bottom out in the mid to upper 70s, which would put us at
least near record high minimum temperatures.
Speaking of records, on Wednesday we set three record high maximum
temperatures at College Station, the City of Houston (Bush Airport),
and Houston/Hobby Airport along with a record high minimum
temperature at Palacios. It`s very fitting that the first day that
Palacios is reporting again it greets us with a record. Anyway, I
was curious on just how abnormal it is to be this hot this early and
did a little digging around. For the City of Houston, the average
first day for temperatures at or above 95F is June 13th...this
means that we beat the average by approximately one month. Before
this year, the last time we`ve seen temperatures this hot this early
in May was back in 1967 when the City of Houston reached 96F on May
8th. Since the CoH reached 95F on May 13th, that makes May 13, 2025
the FIFTH earliest day in the year on record to reach 95+F...neat!
Suffice to say, it`s rather unusual to be this hot this early...we
did the maths! This is highlighted in the Heat Risk map, which
reflects a moderate to major threat (levels 2 & 3 out of 4) of heat
related impacts across Southeast Texas throughout the forecast
period. Remember that our bodies are not yet acclimated to hot
temperatures this early in the season. These "shoulder" season
events tend to cause spikes in heat-related illnesses, so be sure to
take the proper precautions to keep you and your loved ones
(including your pets) safe from the heat.
Batiste
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025
The ridge pattern will continue through the long-term period,
resulting in a prolonged period of hot and humid conditions.
Afternoon temperatures will continue to rise into the 90s each day,
with heat indices in the 100 degree range. Coastal locations will
see highs reach into the mid to upper 80s. Overnight lows across the
area will be in the 70s.
Continue to be mindful of heat safety by avoiding strenuous activity
during peak heating, stay hydrated, and LOOK BEFORE YOU LOCK.
Adams
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 552 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025
A mixture of IFR/MVFR ceilings this morning as low-level clouds
continue to develop...expect this to last till around 14-15Z
before conditions steadily improve to VFR. With a 35-45 kt LLJ
overhead this morning, included in a prevailing line of LLWS for
northern and western sites through the morning hours. Another
round of gusty southerly winds is on tap for today with gusts
around 25 kt through the afternoon. Going into the evening hours,
sustained winds will subside to around 10-13 kt with MVFR ceilings
building back in from south to north. These reduced ceilings will
last into Friday morning.
Batiste
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025
South to south-southeast winds will increase again overnight through
this morning. Gusts over 30 knots will be possible once again. These
winds are expected to decrease slightly as we head into the
afternoon hours today. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through
Today; however, hazardous winds and especially seas may continue
into Friday. Winds and seas should decrease on Friday into Saturday
as the gradient eases. The gradient may steepen again early next
week, bringing another chance of increasing southeast winds and seas.
Self/Adams
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025
With multiple days of near-record to record-breaking heat expected
over the upcoming week, here`s a look at the daily high temperature
records through Tuesday (May 20th).
May 15th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 95F (1925)
- Houston/IAH: 94F (2018)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (1978)
- Palacios: 93F (1943)
- Galveston: 89F (2022)
May 16th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 95F (2003)
- Houston/IAH: 94F (2022)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (2022)
- Palacios: 88F (2010)
- Galveston: 90F (2022)
May 17th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 96F (1925)
- Houston/IAH: 96F (2018)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (2018)
- Palacios: 93F (2003)
- Galveston: 90F (2020)
May 18th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 98F (2022)
- Houston/IAH: 95F (2022)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (2022)
- Palacios: 89F (2022)
- Galveston: 90F (2022)
May 19th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 94F (2022)
- Houston/IAH: 95F (2003)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (2008)
- Palacios: 89F (2024)
- Galveston: 90F (2022)
May 20th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 96F (2022)
- Houston/IAH: 95F (2020)
- Houston/Hobby: 95F (2008)
- Palacios: 95F (1943)
- Galveston: 91F (2022)
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 97 75 96 76 / 0 0 20 0
Houston (IAH) 96 77 95 76 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 86 77 86 77 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ330-
335-350-355.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 1 PM CDT this afternoon
through Friday morning for GMZ330-335-350-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ370-375.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from this evening through
Friday morning for GMZ370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....Adams
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Self
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6091
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025
VFR conditions and gusty southerly winds are expected this
afternoon. Wind gusts ease off this evening as daytime heating
wanes. MVFR CIGS slowly build in from the coast tonight, lowing to
IFR levels in areas mostly south of I-10 heading into Friday
morning. CIGs improve and gusty winds resume mid/late Friday
morning after sunrise.
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025
VFR conditions and gusty southerly winds are expected this
afternoon. Wind gusts ease off this evening as daytime heating
wanes. MVFR CIGS slowly build in from the coast tonight, lowing to
IFR levels in areas mostly south of I-10 heading into Friday
morning. CIGs improve and gusty winds resume mid/late Friday
morning after sunrise.
Here's a reminder that it snowed a lot just a few months ago. Lol
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6091
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
77
FXUS64 KHGX 151836
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
136 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025
Hot weather continues today with similar conditions to that of
yesterday. 500mb Heights are on the rise as the center of a midlevel
high shifts over the western Gulf of America. A 850mb low/trough
pushing eastward has tightened the pressure gradient thus
strengthening the LLJ to 30-45 knots. While 850mb temperatures are a
tad weaker than the day before, the strengthened LLJ should amplify
WAA, with the HREF showing temp advection reaching upwards of 1.0-
3.0 K/hr at times on the higher end of the distribution, though
notably less potent than previously forecast. HREF and CAMs continue
to show lackluster mixing in spite of the strong winds in the lower
levels. It`ll remain to be seen, though I wouldn`t be surprised if
we saw dewpoints drop into the upper 60s in some locations. Taking
account for all these factors, in addition to greater cloud cover,
the heat should be tolerable enough, such that to avoid the need for
a Heat Advisory today. Experimental Heat Risk has been calculated to
be Moderate to Major (3/5 - 4/5), though given the aforementioned
meteorological conditions, this level of heat will mainly affect
individuals more sensitive to heat. WBGT heat stress will peak at
Moderate to High (3/5 - 4/5) this afternoon. Overall similar to
yesterday, though broadly favoring a lesser heat risk, thus will
continue to hold of on a Heat Advisory.
Friday rolls around with broadly the same pattern, but a few
important differences. 500mb heights across the Gulf of America and
surrounding coastlines should continue to creep upwards. The
northern shift of the western trough axis should slowly weaken the
pressure gradient, causing the LLJ to weaken from 30-40 knots to as
low as 20 knots in the afternoon. This means winds won`t be as gusty
as Thursday, though still sufficient to make the heat more
tolerable. Subsequently, WAA is also reduced to 0.5-1.5 K/hr,
limiting the added heating from advection. ECMWF EFI for MaxT ranges
form 0.5-0.95 with NAEFS 850mb temps only above the 90th percentile.
850mb temps are also low than past days in the CAMs too. Once again,
models are pessimistic on the extend of mixing during the afternoon,
showing fairly high dewpoints in the uppers 60s/70s. Taking a brief
detour from talking heat, a frontal boundary/dry line may push into
the vicinity of the Brazos Valley Friday afternoon, which could
initiate some isolated thunderstorms across our northern counties.
While only select CAMs show this (Fv3), it`s still be worth
maintaining some light PoPs. Back to heat, Heat Risk is still
forecasted too be Moderate to Major (3/5 - 4/5) with WBGT heat
stress reaching Moderate (3/5) at least in the afternoon. With
similar meteorological conditions, this level of heat should
primarily affect groups more sensitive to heat.
If you plan to spend an extended amount of time outdoors, be sure
to drink plenty of water to stay hydrated.
03
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025
Mostly tranquil conditions are expected to prevail across Southeast
TX through the next several days as a mid-level high pressure
meanders over the Gulf.
Mid-level heights in the 587-590 dam range will prevail this
weekend, along with hot conditions and high temperatures remaining
in the mid to upper 90s for most locations north of I-10, the low to
mid 90s for locations south of I-10, and the upper 80s to lower 90s
along the coasts. To give you another perspective, these
temperatures are roughly between 5-11 deg above average for this
time of the year.
Aside from the highs, we will need to keep in mind the added effect
of winds and moisture. South to southeasterly flow will continue to
supply warm moist air from the Gulf this weekend while a weak
boundary stalls over Central TX. This will lead to moisture
converging over our area and increasing PWs into the 1.6" to 1.8"
range. As a consequence, conditions will feel much warmer. The
current forecast carries Heat Indices between 100-107 deg F inland.
Now...the boundary stalling over Central TX may also lead to a
tighter pressure gradient over our area, and thus, slightly stronger
winds along the surface. This could bring a little relief to some,
however, heat impacts will remain to be a concern.
Keeping in mind that many are not yet acclimated to these
conditions, there is the possibility of heat related headlines
and/or a Heat Advisory for portions of Southeast TX during weekend.
Make the proper preparations to keep yourself, your family, and pets
safe from heat related impacts, including limiting outdoor work and
activities, taking frequent breaks in the shade or a room with AC,
stay hydrated, and limit sun exposure. Be aware of heat related
illnesses and be ready to act quickly if symptoms arise.
By early next week, a mid-upper level trough will move across the
Southern Plains and some locations could see high temperatures a
couple of degrees cooler - closer to the low to mid 90s range -
although a few spots may still see highs in the upper 90s (in
particular over the Brazos Valley region). An associated weak cold
front looks to stall over Central TX again, leading to another rise
in PWs (ranging between 1.7" to 2.0"). Although the front will not
make it into Southeast TX, it will at least tighten the local
pressure gradient. This could then lead to stronger surface winds on
Monday and Tuesday, roughly 15-20 mph, which may subside some of our
heat impacts. The Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region also have a
chance for some showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday and can briefly
provide slightly cooler conditions for a few areas. Regardless, it
is recommended to remain alert and prepared for any heat impacts for
the next several days.
Cotto - 24
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025
VFR conditions and gusty southerly winds are expected this
afternoon. Wind gusts ease off this evening as daytime heating
wanes. MVFR CIGS slowly build in from the coast tonight, lowing to
IFR levels in areas mostly south of I-10 heading into Friday
morning. CIGs improve and gusty winds resume mid/late Friday
morning after sunrise.
03
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025
With a surface high pressure centered across the eastern Gulf, south
to southeast winds will continue through most of the period. Winds
are expected to weaken the rest of this afternoon and evening,
falling below advisory levels. However, seas offshore will still be
into the 6 to 7 ft range, occasionally higher through early this
evening. Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 7PM CDT. Light
to moderate onshore winds will prevail at least through next
Wednesday. Winds and seas could reach advisory levels at times early
next week. Overall, dry and warm weather will prevail within the
next 7 days.
Beach and Swimming Conditions: Above average water levels are
expected, especially during the high tide cycles. This could result
in isolated/minor coastal flooding due to elevated tides through
early this evening. The risk of rip currents also continues along
all Gulf-facing beaches and will likely persist into the weekend.
JM
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025
With multiple days of near-record to record-breaking heat expected
over the upcoming week, here`s a look at the daily high temperature
records through Tuesday (May 20th).
May 15th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 95F (1925)
- Houston/IAH: 94F (2018)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (1978)
- Palacios: 93F (1943)
- Galveston: 89F (2022)
May 16th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 95F (2003)
- Houston/IAH: 94F (2022)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (2022)
- Palacios: 88F (2010)
- Galveston: 90F (2022)
May 17th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 96F (1925)
- Houston/IAH: 96F (2018)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (2018)
- Palacios: 93F (2003)
- Galveston: 90F (2020)
May 18th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 98F (2022)
- Houston/IAH: 95F (2022)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (2022)
- Palacios: 89F (2022)
- Galveston: 90F (2022)
May 19th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 94F (2022)
- Houston/IAH: 95F (2003)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (2008)
- Palacios: 89F (2024)
- Galveston: 90F (2022)
May 20th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 96F (2022)
- Houston/IAH: 95F (2020)
- Houston/Hobby: 95F (2008)
- Palacios: 95F (1943)
- Galveston: 91F (2022)
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 97 75 96 76 / 0 0 20 0
Houston (IAH) 96 77 95 76 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 86 77 86 77 / 0 0 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Beach Hazards Statement until 7 PM CDT this evening for
TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ330-
335-350-355.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Friday morning for
GMZ330-335-350-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ370-375.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 7 PM CDT this evening
through Friday morning for GMZ370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....Cotto /24/
AVIATION...03
MARINE...JM
FXUS64 KHGX 151836
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
136 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025
Hot weather continues today with similar conditions to that of
yesterday. 500mb Heights are on the rise as the center of a midlevel
high shifts over the western Gulf of America. A 850mb low/trough
pushing eastward has tightened the pressure gradient thus
strengthening the LLJ to 30-45 knots. While 850mb temperatures are a
tad weaker than the day before, the strengthened LLJ should amplify
WAA, with the HREF showing temp advection reaching upwards of 1.0-
3.0 K/hr at times on the higher end of the distribution, though
notably less potent than previously forecast. HREF and CAMs continue
to show lackluster mixing in spite of the strong winds in the lower
levels. It`ll remain to be seen, though I wouldn`t be surprised if
we saw dewpoints drop into the upper 60s in some locations. Taking
account for all these factors, in addition to greater cloud cover,
the heat should be tolerable enough, such that to avoid the need for
a Heat Advisory today. Experimental Heat Risk has been calculated to
be Moderate to Major (3/5 - 4/5), though given the aforementioned
meteorological conditions, this level of heat will mainly affect
individuals more sensitive to heat. WBGT heat stress will peak at
Moderate to High (3/5 - 4/5) this afternoon. Overall similar to
yesterday, though broadly favoring a lesser heat risk, thus will
continue to hold of on a Heat Advisory.
Friday rolls around with broadly the same pattern, but a few
important differences. 500mb heights across the Gulf of America and
surrounding coastlines should continue to creep upwards. The
northern shift of the western trough axis should slowly weaken the
pressure gradient, causing the LLJ to weaken from 30-40 knots to as
low as 20 knots in the afternoon. This means winds won`t be as gusty
as Thursday, though still sufficient to make the heat more
tolerable. Subsequently, WAA is also reduced to 0.5-1.5 K/hr,
limiting the added heating from advection. ECMWF EFI for MaxT ranges
form 0.5-0.95 with NAEFS 850mb temps only above the 90th percentile.
850mb temps are also low than past days in the CAMs too. Once again,
models are pessimistic on the extend of mixing during the afternoon,
showing fairly high dewpoints in the uppers 60s/70s. Taking a brief
detour from talking heat, a frontal boundary/dry line may push into
the vicinity of the Brazos Valley Friday afternoon, which could
initiate some isolated thunderstorms across our northern counties.
While only select CAMs show this (Fv3), it`s still be worth
maintaining some light PoPs. Back to heat, Heat Risk is still
forecasted too be Moderate to Major (3/5 - 4/5) with WBGT heat
stress reaching Moderate (3/5) at least in the afternoon. With
similar meteorological conditions, this level of heat should
primarily affect groups more sensitive to heat.
If you plan to spend an extended amount of time outdoors, be sure
to drink plenty of water to stay hydrated.
03
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025
Mostly tranquil conditions are expected to prevail across Southeast
TX through the next several days as a mid-level high pressure
meanders over the Gulf.
Mid-level heights in the 587-590 dam range will prevail this
weekend, along with hot conditions and high temperatures remaining
in the mid to upper 90s for most locations north of I-10, the low to
mid 90s for locations south of I-10, and the upper 80s to lower 90s
along the coasts. To give you another perspective, these
temperatures are roughly between 5-11 deg above average for this
time of the year.
Aside from the highs, we will need to keep in mind the added effect
of winds and moisture. South to southeasterly flow will continue to
supply warm moist air from the Gulf this weekend while a weak
boundary stalls over Central TX. This will lead to moisture
converging over our area and increasing PWs into the 1.6" to 1.8"
range. As a consequence, conditions will feel much warmer. The
current forecast carries Heat Indices between 100-107 deg F inland.
Now...the boundary stalling over Central TX may also lead to a
tighter pressure gradient over our area, and thus, slightly stronger
winds along the surface. This could bring a little relief to some,
however, heat impacts will remain to be a concern.
Keeping in mind that many are not yet acclimated to these
conditions, there is the possibility of heat related headlines
and/or a Heat Advisory for portions of Southeast TX during weekend.
Make the proper preparations to keep yourself, your family, and pets
safe from heat related impacts, including limiting outdoor work and
activities, taking frequent breaks in the shade or a room with AC,
stay hydrated, and limit sun exposure. Be aware of heat related
illnesses and be ready to act quickly if symptoms arise.
By early next week, a mid-upper level trough will move across the
Southern Plains and some locations could see high temperatures a
couple of degrees cooler - closer to the low to mid 90s range -
although a few spots may still see highs in the upper 90s (in
particular over the Brazos Valley region). An associated weak cold
front looks to stall over Central TX again, leading to another rise
in PWs (ranging between 1.7" to 2.0"). Although the front will not
make it into Southeast TX, it will at least tighten the local
pressure gradient. This could then lead to stronger surface winds on
Monday and Tuesday, roughly 15-20 mph, which may subside some of our
heat impacts. The Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region also have a
chance for some showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday and can briefly
provide slightly cooler conditions for a few areas. Regardless, it
is recommended to remain alert and prepared for any heat impacts for
the next several days.
Cotto - 24
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025
VFR conditions and gusty southerly winds are expected this
afternoon. Wind gusts ease off this evening as daytime heating
wanes. MVFR CIGS slowly build in from the coast tonight, lowing to
IFR levels in areas mostly south of I-10 heading into Friday
morning. CIGs improve and gusty winds resume mid/late Friday
morning after sunrise.
03
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025
With a surface high pressure centered across the eastern Gulf, south
to southeast winds will continue through most of the period. Winds
are expected to weaken the rest of this afternoon and evening,
falling below advisory levels. However, seas offshore will still be
into the 6 to 7 ft range, occasionally higher through early this
evening. Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 7PM CDT. Light
to moderate onshore winds will prevail at least through next
Wednesday. Winds and seas could reach advisory levels at times early
next week. Overall, dry and warm weather will prevail within the
next 7 days.
Beach and Swimming Conditions: Above average water levels are
expected, especially during the high tide cycles. This could result
in isolated/minor coastal flooding due to elevated tides through
early this evening. The risk of rip currents also continues along
all Gulf-facing beaches and will likely persist into the weekend.
JM
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025
With multiple days of near-record to record-breaking heat expected
over the upcoming week, here`s a look at the daily high temperature
records through Tuesday (May 20th).
May 15th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 95F (1925)
- Houston/IAH: 94F (2018)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (1978)
- Palacios: 93F (1943)
- Galveston: 89F (2022)
May 16th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 95F (2003)
- Houston/IAH: 94F (2022)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (2022)
- Palacios: 88F (2010)
- Galveston: 90F (2022)
May 17th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 96F (1925)
- Houston/IAH: 96F (2018)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (2018)
- Palacios: 93F (2003)
- Galveston: 90F (2020)
May 18th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 98F (2022)
- Houston/IAH: 95F (2022)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (2022)
- Palacios: 89F (2022)
- Galveston: 90F (2022)
May 19th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 94F (2022)
- Houston/IAH: 95F (2003)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (2008)
- Palacios: 89F (2024)
- Galveston: 90F (2022)
May 20th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 96F (2022)
- Houston/IAH: 95F (2020)
- Houston/Hobby: 95F (2008)
- Palacios: 95F (1943)
- Galveston: 91F (2022)
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 97 75 96 76 / 0 0 20 0
Houston (IAH) 96 77 95 76 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 86 77 86 77 / 0 0 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Beach Hazards Statement until 7 PM CDT this evening for
TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ330-
335-350-355.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Friday morning for
GMZ330-335-350-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ370-375.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 7 PM CDT this evening
through Friday morning for GMZ370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....Cotto /24/
AVIATION...03
MARINE...JM
Yep. "only" 95°F high today. More of the same for the next week, but with highs sagging to 90°F as a mild FROPA/dry line moves through. However, no rain in the foreseeable forecast.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6091
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
869
FXUS64 KHGX 161025
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
525 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025
We`re only in mid May and I`m already running out of ways to say
that it`s hot, so let me just crack open the ol` thesaurus here and
find a good word to use. Let`s see...steamy is a good one since high
humidity is implied...there`s also sizzling but that reminds me more
of fajitas than weather...oh how about this one...sweltering! Yeah
we`ll go with that...sweltering conditions continue as we remain
under the influence of ridging aloft that will keep us at least
near record temperatures...and that`s for both daily high maximum
temperatures and daily high minimum temperatures (looking at you
Palacios). It`s not all bad news though as there are some slim
rain chances to discuss for our northern areas, but we`ll focus on
the hot topic first. High temperatures both today and Saturday
will top out in the mid to upper 90s for areas along and north of
I-10 with upper 80s to mid 90s south of I-10. Dew points remain
VERY elevated, so we`ll continue to see heat indices peaking in
the 100-105F range. The HeatRisk map through Saturday outlines
most of Southeast Texas in a major risk for heat-related impacts
(level 3 out of 4), so be sure to take the proper precautions to
keep you and your loved ones (including your pets) safe from the
heat. Heat-related illnesses typically spike during early season
heat events like this...take a little bit of time to learn the
signs/symptoms.
There won`t be much relief during the overnight hours with low
temperatures only in the mid to upper 70s. As mentioned earlier,
even the low temperatures will be near record territory (high
minimum temperatures). Our only sources of relief other than the A/C
is that we`ll keep our southerly breeze going (albeit lighter than
previous days) along with a slim chance for rain both this evening
and Saturday evening. Latest surface analysis reveals a frontal
boundary over central Texas and a dry line extending southwestward
from that boundary into western Texas. These won`t move all that
much during the day, maybe just a bit more southward. 00Z CAM
guidance is in agreement on convection firing off of either one or
both of these boundaries this afternoon and drifting eastward. Like
we talked about yesterday, there is a capping inversion aloft that
this convection would have to battle as it moves into an area of
increased subsidence. So, the main question is will these storms
survive long enough to bring any rain to the Brazos Valley/Piney
Woods going into the evening...and the answer is maybe? Giving it
about a 15-20% chance of occuring. Can you tell how desperate we are
to talk about something other than the heat that I spent nearly an
entire paragraph talking about a 20% chance of rain? Yeah...that`s
where we`re at already...
More good news! Everything I just said in the above paragraph...add
24 hours to that and apply it to Saturday. The main difference is
the dry line will be a bit further west, but the latest CAM guidance
still has decent consensus that at least a couple of storms could
survive long enough for another round low-end PoPs for our northern
areas. Is this a good time to mention that winds should subside
enough tonight into Saturday morning for a decent chance of patchy
fog development? No? Whelp...we`ll call that a mist opportunity
TL;DR: Near record to record breaking heat continues with a slim
chance of rain up north late in the day both today and Saturday.
Batiste
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025
We will remain in a benign weather period through the long-term
courtesy of a mid-level ridge stationed over the Gulf.
This positioning of the high pressure system will result in
continued southerly/onshore flow which will lead to prevailing hot
and humid conditions. Daily highs will continue to run well above
normal for this time of year Temperatures will generally be in the
mid to upper 90s north of I-10, low to mid 90s south of I-10 and in
the upper 80s to low 90s along the coast. While Heat indices are
projected to be in the 100-107F range inland, the position of a
stalled boundary may result in a tighter pressure gradient and lead
to stronger winds. This could consequently make temperatures feel
slightly cooler; however, heat impacts will still be a concern.
The mid-upper level trough will move across the Plains next week.
This could bring slightly cooler temperatures to portions of the
area; however, highs will generally be in the 90s. Another weak
front is projected to stall in Central Texas, which will lead to an
increase in moisture over SE Texas (PW around 1.7-2.0"). Again, this
could lead to a tightening pressure gradient and stronger surface
winds for Monday and Tuesday (15-20 mph). This will provide a bit of
relief with heat. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible for
the Brazos Valley and portions of the Piney woods region on Tuesday.
Otherwise, the heat and humidity continues...continue to exercise
heat safety by avoiding strenuous activity during the afternoon
hours, staying hydrated, and LOOK BEFORE YOU LOCK!
Adams
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 525 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025
MVFR ceilings will persist areawide through around 15Z when
conditions will gradually improve back to VFR. There remains some
potential for a small window for IFR ceilings just before sunrise
along the coast. Southerly winds will be gusty again later this
morning into the afternoon with gusts up to 25 kt. MVFR ceilings
filter in again later this afternoon along the coast, then spread
areawide going into the evening hours potentially becoming IFR at
times. Decreased visibilities due to patchy will be possible as
well. Another thing to note is the slim potential for isolated
convection to drift near CLL/UTS after 00Z. These chances are far too
low for a mention in any of the TAFs at the moment.
Batiste
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025
Southeast winds are expected to prevail through the period as a
surface high remains parked over the Gulf. Light to moderate onshore
winds will prevail at least through next Wednesday. Winds and seas
could reach advisory levels at times early next week. Overall, dry
and warm weather will prevail within the next 7 days.
Beach and Swimming Conditions: Above average water levels are
expected, especially during the high tide cycles. This could result
in isolated/minor coastal flooding due to elevated tides through
early this evening. The risk of rip currents also continues along
all Gulf-facing beaches and will likely persist into the weekend.
Adams
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025
With multiple days of near record to record breaking heat
possible going into early next week, here`s a look at the daily
high temperature records through Tuesday (May 20th).
May 16th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 95F (2003)
- Houston/IAH: 94F (2022)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (2022)
- Palacios: 88F (2010)
- Galveston: 90F (2022)
May 17th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 96F (1925)
- Houston/IAH: 96F (2018)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (2018)
- Palacios: 93F (2003)
- Galveston: 90F (2020)
May 18th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 98F (2022)
- Houston/IAH: 95F (2022)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (2022)
- Palacios: 89F (2022)
- Galveston: 90F (2022)
May 19th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 94F (2022)
- Houston/IAH: 95F (2003)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (2008)
- Palacios: 89F (2024)
- Galveston: 90F (2022)
May 20th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 96F (2022)
- Houston/IAH: 95F (2020)
- Houston/Hobby: 95F (2008)
- Palacios: 95F (1943)
- Galveston: 91F (2022)
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 96 76 96 75 / 10 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 95 77 95 78 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 87 77 86 78 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 AM CDT this morning
for GMZ330-335-350-355.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through late tonight for
GMZ370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....Adams
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Adams
FXUS64 KHGX 161025
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
525 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025
We`re only in mid May and I`m already running out of ways to say
that it`s hot, so let me just crack open the ol` thesaurus here and
find a good word to use. Let`s see...steamy is a good one since high
humidity is implied...there`s also sizzling but that reminds me more
of fajitas than weather...oh how about this one...sweltering! Yeah
we`ll go with that...sweltering conditions continue as we remain
under the influence of ridging aloft that will keep us at least
near record temperatures...and that`s for both daily high maximum
temperatures and daily high minimum temperatures (looking at you
Palacios). It`s not all bad news though as there are some slim
rain chances to discuss for our northern areas, but we`ll focus on
the hot topic first. High temperatures both today and Saturday
will top out in the mid to upper 90s for areas along and north of
I-10 with upper 80s to mid 90s south of I-10. Dew points remain
VERY elevated, so we`ll continue to see heat indices peaking in
the 100-105F range. The HeatRisk map through Saturday outlines
most of Southeast Texas in a major risk for heat-related impacts
(level 3 out of 4), so be sure to take the proper precautions to
keep you and your loved ones (including your pets) safe from the
heat. Heat-related illnesses typically spike during early season
heat events like this...take a little bit of time to learn the
signs/symptoms.
There won`t be much relief during the overnight hours with low
temperatures only in the mid to upper 70s. As mentioned earlier,
even the low temperatures will be near record territory (high
minimum temperatures). Our only sources of relief other than the A/C
is that we`ll keep our southerly breeze going (albeit lighter than
previous days) along with a slim chance for rain both this evening
and Saturday evening. Latest surface analysis reveals a frontal
boundary over central Texas and a dry line extending southwestward
from that boundary into western Texas. These won`t move all that
much during the day, maybe just a bit more southward. 00Z CAM
guidance is in agreement on convection firing off of either one or
both of these boundaries this afternoon and drifting eastward. Like
we talked about yesterday, there is a capping inversion aloft that
this convection would have to battle as it moves into an area of
increased subsidence. So, the main question is will these storms
survive long enough to bring any rain to the Brazos Valley/Piney
Woods going into the evening...and the answer is maybe? Giving it
about a 15-20% chance of occuring. Can you tell how desperate we are
to talk about something other than the heat that I spent nearly an
entire paragraph talking about a 20% chance of rain? Yeah...that`s
where we`re at already...
More good news! Everything I just said in the above paragraph...add
24 hours to that and apply it to Saturday. The main difference is
the dry line will be a bit further west, but the latest CAM guidance
still has decent consensus that at least a couple of storms could
survive long enough for another round low-end PoPs for our northern
areas. Is this a good time to mention that winds should subside
enough tonight into Saturday morning for a decent chance of patchy
fog development? No? Whelp...we`ll call that a mist opportunity
TL;DR: Near record to record breaking heat continues with a slim
chance of rain up north late in the day both today and Saturday.
Batiste
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025
We will remain in a benign weather period through the long-term
courtesy of a mid-level ridge stationed over the Gulf.
This positioning of the high pressure system will result in
continued southerly/onshore flow which will lead to prevailing hot
and humid conditions. Daily highs will continue to run well above
normal for this time of year Temperatures will generally be in the
mid to upper 90s north of I-10, low to mid 90s south of I-10 and in
the upper 80s to low 90s along the coast. While Heat indices are
projected to be in the 100-107F range inland, the position of a
stalled boundary may result in a tighter pressure gradient and lead
to stronger winds. This could consequently make temperatures feel
slightly cooler; however, heat impacts will still be a concern.
The mid-upper level trough will move across the Plains next week.
This could bring slightly cooler temperatures to portions of the
area; however, highs will generally be in the 90s. Another weak
front is projected to stall in Central Texas, which will lead to an
increase in moisture over SE Texas (PW around 1.7-2.0"). Again, this
could lead to a tightening pressure gradient and stronger surface
winds for Monday and Tuesday (15-20 mph). This will provide a bit of
relief with heat. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible for
the Brazos Valley and portions of the Piney woods region on Tuesday.
Otherwise, the heat and humidity continues...continue to exercise
heat safety by avoiding strenuous activity during the afternoon
hours, staying hydrated, and LOOK BEFORE YOU LOCK!
Adams
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 525 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025
MVFR ceilings will persist areawide through around 15Z when
conditions will gradually improve back to VFR. There remains some
potential for a small window for IFR ceilings just before sunrise
along the coast. Southerly winds will be gusty again later this
morning into the afternoon with gusts up to 25 kt. MVFR ceilings
filter in again later this afternoon along the coast, then spread
areawide going into the evening hours potentially becoming IFR at
times. Decreased visibilities due to patchy will be possible as
well. Another thing to note is the slim potential for isolated
convection to drift near CLL/UTS after 00Z. These chances are far too
low for a mention in any of the TAFs at the moment.
Batiste
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025
Southeast winds are expected to prevail through the period as a
surface high remains parked over the Gulf. Light to moderate onshore
winds will prevail at least through next Wednesday. Winds and seas
could reach advisory levels at times early next week. Overall, dry
and warm weather will prevail within the next 7 days.
Beach and Swimming Conditions: Above average water levels are
expected, especially during the high tide cycles. This could result
in isolated/minor coastal flooding due to elevated tides through
early this evening. The risk of rip currents also continues along
all Gulf-facing beaches and will likely persist into the weekend.
Adams
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025
With multiple days of near record to record breaking heat
possible going into early next week, here`s a look at the daily
high temperature records through Tuesday (May 20th).
May 16th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 95F (2003)
- Houston/IAH: 94F (2022)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (2022)
- Palacios: 88F (2010)
- Galveston: 90F (2022)
May 17th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 96F (1925)
- Houston/IAH: 96F (2018)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (2018)
- Palacios: 93F (2003)
- Galveston: 90F (2020)
May 18th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 98F (2022)
- Houston/IAH: 95F (2022)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (2022)
- Palacios: 89F (2022)
- Galveston: 90F (2022)
May 19th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 94F (2022)
- Houston/IAH: 95F (2003)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (2008)
- Palacios: 89F (2024)
- Galveston: 90F (2022)
May 20th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 96F (2022)
- Houston/IAH: 95F (2020)
- Houston/Hobby: 95F (2008)
- Palacios: 95F (1943)
- Galveston: 91F (2022)
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 96 76 96 75 / 10 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 95 77 95 78 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 87 77 86 78 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 AM CDT this morning
for GMZ330-335-350-355.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through late tonight for
GMZ370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....Adams
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Adams
-
MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2618
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
Summer sucks in Texas. Just post that every day through September.
Ready for Hawaii and Canada in June!
Ready for Hawaii and Canada in June!
Team #NeverSummer