Euro AI and the Ensembles are the best chance to stay under 100°F Wednesday and Thursday.
Regardless, it's going to suck. We're out of town for the weekend to NC. Naturally the heat follows us. It's rainy and 70°F now.
May 2025
I am not liking this heat wave. 
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6091
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
641
FXUS64 KHGX 131130
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
630 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025
Hey there Southeast Texas...that`s a nice spring you got there! It`d
be such a shame if we did a speedrun any% right to summer...and of
course we will. The upper level cutoff low that kept temperatures
below normal to seasonal over the weekend is on a northeastward
trajectory out of here as mid to upper level ridging builds in over
the Southern Plains. 500mb heights as of early this morning are
around 572-576 dam, but by Wednesday we`ll bump those numbers up to
586-588 dam. Pair that with southwesterly flow aloft bringing in
850mb temperatures that will be approaching their MAX percentiles
(NAEFS/GEFS) AND southwesterly winds at the surface for portions of
the day AND a high sun angle with it being in late spring AND most
of that radiation reaching the surface (low cloud coverage in the
daytime)...and we have a pretty decent setup for hot temperatures.
Oh yeah...with surface high pressure building into the eastern Gulf
onshore flow is back in action, so increasing humidity has been
added to the equation!
Temperatures today are expected to reach the low to mid 90s for most
of the area with some upper 90s possible in the Brazos Valley. We`ll
be flirting with record high temperatures today, tomorrow, and the
next day, and the next day, and the...well you get the drift (see
the Climate section for the current records). High temperatures on
Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 90s with the potential for a
couple of spots in the Brazos Valley to reach the 100F mark. The
combination of these hot temperatures and elevated humidity means
that we`ll be monitoring heat indices as well. Heat indices today
will be in the upper 90s with a few spots feeling like the triple
digits. On Wednesday, it`ll feel like the triple digits for most
locations along and north of I-10 as heat indices top out in the 101-
105F range. Since this is our first exposure to these kind of
temperatures this year, keep in mind that our bodies are yet
acclimated. These "shoulder" season events tend to cause spikes in
heat-related illnesses, so be sure to take the proper precautions to
keep you and your loved ones safe from the heat.
There won`t be much relief overnight either as low temperatures only
fall into the low to mid 70s. Taking a look at the HeatRisk map,
beginning on Wednesday most of Southeast Texas will be in a level 2
out of 4 (moderate heat-related impacts) with some spots reaching a
level 3 out of 4 (major heat-related impacts). The map fills in with
quite a bit more red (level 3) going into the long term period, so
please be sure to freshen up on your heat safety practices. Do you
know the signs of heat-related illnesses?
Batiste
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025
An omega block pattern will setup over the CONUS through most of the
week, leaving SE Texas in a ridge. This will lead to increasing
temperatures through the week as 850 mb temperatures climb above the
90th percentile (26-28 C) for Wednesday and Thursday. Surface
temperatures will peak in the 94-100F range inland and 84-88F along
the coast. In addition to the increase in surface temperatures,
onshore flow will result in an increase in humidity. The combination
of increasing temperatures and humidity will contribute to heat
index values peaking in the 100-105F range. As the pattern begins to
transition and the ridge begins an eastward progression,
temperatures will lower slightly. Highs will generally be in the 90s
inland and in the low to mid 80s along the coast going into the
weekend. The area will remain rain-free through the week. Isolated
showers will be possible going into the weekend as an upper level
low moves into the state.
With heat indices approaching the 100-105F degree range for the
first time this season, it is important to be mindful of heat
safety. Avoid strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day,
remember if the pavement is too hot for your hand, it is too hot for
your pets` paws, and LOOK BEFORE YOU LOCK.
Adams
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025
Satellite imagery reveals widespread IFR ceilings spreading across
Southeast TX this morning. Some of this comes along with decreased
visibilities as well...expect conditions to gradually improve
back to VFR by 15Z. Gusty south-southwesterly winds will prevail
throughout the afternoon with sustained winds around 12-16 kt with
gusts up to 20-25 kt. These elevated winds stick around through
the overnight hours as a 35-40 kt LLJ remains overhead. This is
expected to cause a window for LLWS tonight into Wednesday
morning. The elevated winds aloft will make it more difficult for
decreased ceilings/visibilities to occur as well...probabilities
for both are on the low side.
Batiste
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025
Onshore flow continues tonight and increases tomorrow into
Wednesday. With rising winds and seas, Small Craft Advisories will
likely be warranted at times Tuesday through Thursday. Tides will
begin running 1.0-1.5ft above normal, but are not currently expected
to pose a coastal flood risk. There will high risks of rip currents
along area beaches. Winds and seas slightly decrease near the end of
the work week into the upcoming weekend, but would still not
anticipate great boating conditions with 15kt winds and 4-5ft seas.
47/Adams
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025
With multiple days of near-record to record-breaking heat expected
over the upcoming week, here`s a look at the daily high temperature
records spanning from Tuesday (May 13th) through Sunday (May 18th).
May 13th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 99F (1925)
- Houston/IAH: 94F (1907)
- Houston/Hobby: 92F (2011)
- Palacios: 93F (2011)
- Galveston: 93F (2011)
May 14th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 96F (1925)
- Houston/IAH: 93F (2018)
- Houston/Hobby: 93F (1961)
- Palacios: 91F (2024)
- Galveston: 90F (2024)
May 15th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 95F (1925)
- Houston/IAH: 94F (2018)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (1978)
- Palacios: 93F (1943)
- Galveston: 89F (2022)
May 16th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 95F (2003)
- Houston/IAH: 94F (2022)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (2022)
- Palacios: 88F (2010)
- Galveston: 90F (2022)
May 17th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 96F (1925)
- Houston/IAH: 96F (2018)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (2018)
- Palacios: 93F (2003)
- Galveston: 90F (2020)
May 18th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 98F (2022)
- Houston/IAH: 95F (2022)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (2022)
- Palacios: 89F (2022)
- Galveston: 90F (2022)
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 96 72 99 73 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 94 74 97 74 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 85 77 87 77 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this evening for
GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT
Wednesday for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....Adams
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...47
FXUS64 KHGX 131130
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
630 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025
Hey there Southeast Texas...that`s a nice spring you got there! It`d
be such a shame if we did a speedrun any% right to summer...and of
course we will. The upper level cutoff low that kept temperatures
below normal to seasonal over the weekend is on a northeastward
trajectory out of here as mid to upper level ridging builds in over
the Southern Plains. 500mb heights as of early this morning are
around 572-576 dam, but by Wednesday we`ll bump those numbers up to
586-588 dam. Pair that with southwesterly flow aloft bringing in
850mb temperatures that will be approaching their MAX percentiles
(NAEFS/GEFS) AND southwesterly winds at the surface for portions of
the day AND a high sun angle with it being in late spring AND most
of that radiation reaching the surface (low cloud coverage in the
daytime)...and we have a pretty decent setup for hot temperatures.
Oh yeah...with surface high pressure building into the eastern Gulf
onshore flow is back in action, so increasing humidity has been
added to the equation!
Temperatures today are expected to reach the low to mid 90s for most
of the area with some upper 90s possible in the Brazos Valley. We`ll
be flirting with record high temperatures today, tomorrow, and the
next day, and the next day, and the...well you get the drift (see
the Climate section for the current records). High temperatures on
Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 90s with the potential for a
couple of spots in the Brazos Valley to reach the 100F mark. The
combination of these hot temperatures and elevated humidity means
that we`ll be monitoring heat indices as well. Heat indices today
will be in the upper 90s with a few spots feeling like the triple
digits. On Wednesday, it`ll feel like the triple digits for most
locations along and north of I-10 as heat indices top out in the 101-
105F range. Since this is our first exposure to these kind of
temperatures this year, keep in mind that our bodies are yet
acclimated. These "shoulder" season events tend to cause spikes in
heat-related illnesses, so be sure to take the proper precautions to
keep you and your loved ones safe from the heat.
There won`t be much relief overnight either as low temperatures only
fall into the low to mid 70s. Taking a look at the HeatRisk map,
beginning on Wednesday most of Southeast Texas will be in a level 2
out of 4 (moderate heat-related impacts) with some spots reaching a
level 3 out of 4 (major heat-related impacts). The map fills in with
quite a bit more red (level 3) going into the long term period, so
please be sure to freshen up on your heat safety practices. Do you
know the signs of heat-related illnesses?
Batiste
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025
An omega block pattern will setup over the CONUS through most of the
week, leaving SE Texas in a ridge. This will lead to increasing
temperatures through the week as 850 mb temperatures climb above the
90th percentile (26-28 C) for Wednesday and Thursday. Surface
temperatures will peak in the 94-100F range inland and 84-88F along
the coast. In addition to the increase in surface temperatures,
onshore flow will result in an increase in humidity. The combination
of increasing temperatures and humidity will contribute to heat
index values peaking in the 100-105F range. As the pattern begins to
transition and the ridge begins an eastward progression,
temperatures will lower slightly. Highs will generally be in the 90s
inland and in the low to mid 80s along the coast going into the
weekend. The area will remain rain-free through the week. Isolated
showers will be possible going into the weekend as an upper level
low moves into the state.
With heat indices approaching the 100-105F degree range for the
first time this season, it is important to be mindful of heat
safety. Avoid strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day,
remember if the pavement is too hot for your hand, it is too hot for
your pets` paws, and LOOK BEFORE YOU LOCK.
Adams
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025
Satellite imagery reveals widespread IFR ceilings spreading across
Southeast TX this morning. Some of this comes along with decreased
visibilities as well...expect conditions to gradually improve
back to VFR by 15Z. Gusty south-southwesterly winds will prevail
throughout the afternoon with sustained winds around 12-16 kt with
gusts up to 20-25 kt. These elevated winds stick around through
the overnight hours as a 35-40 kt LLJ remains overhead. This is
expected to cause a window for LLWS tonight into Wednesday
morning. The elevated winds aloft will make it more difficult for
decreased ceilings/visibilities to occur as well...probabilities
for both are on the low side.
Batiste
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025
Onshore flow continues tonight and increases tomorrow into
Wednesday. With rising winds and seas, Small Craft Advisories will
likely be warranted at times Tuesday through Thursday. Tides will
begin running 1.0-1.5ft above normal, but are not currently expected
to pose a coastal flood risk. There will high risks of rip currents
along area beaches. Winds and seas slightly decrease near the end of
the work week into the upcoming weekend, but would still not
anticipate great boating conditions with 15kt winds and 4-5ft seas.
47/Adams
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025
With multiple days of near-record to record-breaking heat expected
over the upcoming week, here`s a look at the daily high temperature
records spanning from Tuesday (May 13th) through Sunday (May 18th).
May 13th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 99F (1925)
- Houston/IAH: 94F (1907)
- Houston/Hobby: 92F (2011)
- Palacios: 93F (2011)
- Galveston: 93F (2011)
May 14th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 96F (1925)
- Houston/IAH: 93F (2018)
- Houston/Hobby: 93F (1961)
- Palacios: 91F (2024)
- Galveston: 90F (2024)
May 15th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 95F (1925)
- Houston/IAH: 94F (2018)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (1978)
- Palacios: 93F (1943)
- Galveston: 89F (2022)
May 16th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 95F (2003)
- Houston/IAH: 94F (2022)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (2022)
- Palacios: 88F (2010)
- Galveston: 90F (2022)
May 17th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 96F (1925)
- Houston/IAH: 96F (2018)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (2018)
- Palacios: 93F (2003)
- Galveston: 90F (2020)
May 18th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 98F (2022)
- Houston/IAH: 95F (2022)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (2022)
- Palacios: 89F (2022)
- Galveston: 90F (2022)
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 96 72 99 73 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 94 74 97 74 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 85 77 87 77 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this evening for
GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT
Wednesday for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....Adams
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...47
Our local met has jokes.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5382
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Disgusting, just pure and utter 
97 here already with a forecast high of 95.
It’s what I expected and I still expect to roll triple digits here tomorrow.
Sorry Tireman, soil moisture won’t do much with this amount of mixing with the hot and dry SW flow aloft.
It’s what I expected and I still expect to roll triple digits here tomorrow.
Sorry Tireman, soil moisture won’t do much with this amount of mixing with the hot and dry SW flow aloft.
Only 90°F here. Much more tolerable.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6091
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
094
FXUS64 KHGX 141048
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
548 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025
The early preview of summer started out with a bang as both Houston
sites (Hobby Airport and the City of Houston/IAH) tied and broke
their daily max temperature records respectively yesterday. The best
way to describe this extended period of hot temperatures is the
angry sun from a certain 2D platformer game. It`s just downright hot
and it`s going to be even hotter out there today. Today looks to be
the hottest day of the period with 850mb temperatures firmly at
their MAX percentiles areawide combined with 500mb heights between
586-589 dam. That will allow for temperatures to reach the mid to
upper 90s along and north of I-10 with upper 80s to mid 90s south of
I-10. It`s not out of the question for a few spots in the Brazos
Valley to hit 100F this afternoon. I`m sure y`all felt how humid it
was yesterday and that definitely hasn`t changed today with surface
high pressure remaining over the eastern Gulf.
The combination of hot temperatures and elevated humidity will lead
to heat indices reaching the 104-107F range this afternoon for
portions of the Brazos Valley. Normally this wouldn`t result in a
Heat Advisory, but given that this is an early season heat event,
we`re giving more leeway on the 108F heat index criteria.
Additionally, WBGT this afternoon are expected to reach the high
threat level nearly areawide with some spots in the Brazos Valley
flirting with the extreme threat level. This means that there will
be an increased risk for heat-related illnesses, so with that in
mind there will be a Heat Advisory in effect for portions of the
Brazos Valley this afternoon. Remember that our bodies are not yet
acclimated to these temperatures this early in the season. These
"shoulder" season events tend to cause spikes in heat-related
illnesses, so be sure to take the proper precautions to keep you and
your loved ones safe from the heat. It also goes without saying that
we`ll likely break a few more record high temperatures today...and
maybe tomorrow too...see the Climate section below for the records.
Temperatures on Thursday will be about the same as what we see today
give or take a degree, so the heat goes on. There won`t be much
relief from the heat overnight either as low temperatures will only
fall into the low to mid 70s tonight and the mid to upper 70s on
Thursday night...so we`ll have to monitor for record high minimum
temperatures at some point too. If there`s any good news whatsoever,
it`s that there will be occasional LLJ`s overhead (especially on
Thursday) which will keep us on the breezy side. That`ll help it to
feel more like being in an air fryer rather than in an oven! In all
seriousness though, please be sure to practice heat safety this
week.
Batiste
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025
High pressure will continue to prevail through the long-term period.
A brief and very slight transition will take place this weekend as
the high slips further south into the Gulf and a low pressure system
moves through the Great Plains into the Great Lakes region. At most
this will allow for the possibility of a few showers in the far
northern portion of our CWA. Temperatures may drop a degree or two,
but not anticipating relief from the 90 degree days anytime soon.
The omega block pattern will setup again going into next week and
will continue the streak of 90 degree days. Onshore flow will
continue to draw in moisture and increase humidity. The
combination of heat and humidity will continue to result in heat
indices in the 100-105F range through next week.
Adams
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 548 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025
Intermittent periods of MVFR ceilings will be possible over the
next few hours with VFR conditions returning areawide around 15Z.
Expecting another round of gusty southerly winds today with
sustained winds around 12-17 kt with gusts up to 20-25+ kt at
times. MVFR ceilings are expected to fill in across the area from
south to north overnight alongside strengthening winds aloft as a
35-45 kt LLJ develops overhead. For now, only included LLWS at
the northern sites but this could be added to additional sites
in future TAF packages.
Batiste
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025
Moderate to strong south to southeast winds will continue across the
upper TX coast this evening and Wednesday. Building seas are also
expected with heights around 5 to 8ft, occasionally higher well
offshore. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through Wednesday
afternoon, and will likely need to be extended into late Thursday.
Overall, dry weather continues with winds and seas slightly
decreasing towards the end of the week.
Above average water levels are expected, especially during the high
tide cycles on Wednesday - Friday. Therefore, hazardous
beach/swimming conditions are also anticipated with strong rip
currents and minor coastal flooding due to elevated tides. A Beach
Hazards Statement is in effect through Wednesday evening...it may
also need to be extended into Friday.
JM
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025
With multiple days of near-record to record-breaking heat expected
over the upcoming week, here`s a look at the daily high temperature
records through Monday (May 19th).
May 14th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 96F (1925)
- Houston/IAH: 93F (2018)
- Houston/Hobby: 93F (1961)
- Palacios: 91F (2024)
- Galveston: 90F (2024)
May 15th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 95F (1925)
- Houston/IAH: 94F (2018)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (1978)
- Palacios: 93F (1943)
- Galveston: 89F (2022)
May 16th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 95F (2003)
- Houston/IAH: 94F (2022)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (2022)
- Palacios: 88F (2010)
- Galveston: 90F (2022)
May 17th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 96F (1925)
- Houston/IAH: 96F (2018)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (2018)
- Palacios: 93F (2003)
- Galveston: 90F (2020)
May 18th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 98F (2022)
- Houston/IAH: 95F (2022)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (2022)
- Palacios: 89F (2022)
- Galveston: 90F (2022)
May 19th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 94F (2022)
- Houston/IAH: 95F (2003)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (2008)
- Palacios: 89F (2024)
- Galveston: 90F (2022)
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 98 72 97 76 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 96 75 96 77 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 87 77 85 77 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
TXZ176-195>198.
Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ330-335-350-
355.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from Thursday afternoon
through Thursday evening for GMZ330-335-350-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....Adams
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...JM
FXUS64 KHGX 141048
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
548 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025
The early preview of summer started out with a bang as both Houston
sites (Hobby Airport and the City of Houston/IAH) tied and broke
their daily max temperature records respectively yesterday. The best
way to describe this extended period of hot temperatures is the
angry sun from a certain 2D platformer game. It`s just downright hot
and it`s going to be even hotter out there today. Today looks to be
the hottest day of the period with 850mb temperatures firmly at
their MAX percentiles areawide combined with 500mb heights between
586-589 dam. That will allow for temperatures to reach the mid to
upper 90s along and north of I-10 with upper 80s to mid 90s south of
I-10. It`s not out of the question for a few spots in the Brazos
Valley to hit 100F this afternoon. I`m sure y`all felt how humid it
was yesterday and that definitely hasn`t changed today with surface
high pressure remaining over the eastern Gulf.
The combination of hot temperatures and elevated humidity will lead
to heat indices reaching the 104-107F range this afternoon for
portions of the Brazos Valley. Normally this wouldn`t result in a
Heat Advisory, but given that this is an early season heat event,
we`re giving more leeway on the 108F heat index criteria.
Additionally, WBGT this afternoon are expected to reach the high
threat level nearly areawide with some spots in the Brazos Valley
flirting with the extreme threat level. This means that there will
be an increased risk for heat-related illnesses, so with that in
mind there will be a Heat Advisory in effect for portions of the
Brazos Valley this afternoon. Remember that our bodies are not yet
acclimated to these temperatures this early in the season. These
"shoulder" season events tend to cause spikes in heat-related
illnesses, so be sure to take the proper precautions to keep you and
your loved ones safe from the heat. It also goes without saying that
we`ll likely break a few more record high temperatures today...and
maybe tomorrow too...see the Climate section below for the records.
Temperatures on Thursday will be about the same as what we see today
give or take a degree, so the heat goes on. There won`t be much
relief from the heat overnight either as low temperatures will only
fall into the low to mid 70s tonight and the mid to upper 70s on
Thursday night...so we`ll have to monitor for record high minimum
temperatures at some point too. If there`s any good news whatsoever,
it`s that there will be occasional LLJ`s overhead (especially on
Thursday) which will keep us on the breezy side. That`ll help it to
feel more like being in an air fryer rather than in an oven! In all
seriousness though, please be sure to practice heat safety this
week.
Batiste
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025
High pressure will continue to prevail through the long-term period.
A brief and very slight transition will take place this weekend as
the high slips further south into the Gulf and a low pressure system
moves through the Great Plains into the Great Lakes region. At most
this will allow for the possibility of a few showers in the far
northern portion of our CWA. Temperatures may drop a degree or two,
but not anticipating relief from the 90 degree days anytime soon.
The omega block pattern will setup again going into next week and
will continue the streak of 90 degree days. Onshore flow will
continue to draw in moisture and increase humidity. The
combination of heat and humidity will continue to result in heat
indices in the 100-105F range through next week.
Adams
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 548 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025
Intermittent periods of MVFR ceilings will be possible over the
next few hours with VFR conditions returning areawide around 15Z.
Expecting another round of gusty southerly winds today with
sustained winds around 12-17 kt with gusts up to 20-25+ kt at
times. MVFR ceilings are expected to fill in across the area from
south to north overnight alongside strengthening winds aloft as a
35-45 kt LLJ develops overhead. For now, only included LLWS at
the northern sites but this could be added to additional sites
in future TAF packages.
Batiste
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025
Moderate to strong south to southeast winds will continue across the
upper TX coast this evening and Wednesday. Building seas are also
expected with heights around 5 to 8ft, occasionally higher well
offshore. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through Wednesday
afternoon, and will likely need to be extended into late Thursday.
Overall, dry weather continues with winds and seas slightly
decreasing towards the end of the week.
Above average water levels are expected, especially during the high
tide cycles on Wednesday - Friday. Therefore, hazardous
beach/swimming conditions are also anticipated with strong rip
currents and minor coastal flooding due to elevated tides. A Beach
Hazards Statement is in effect through Wednesday evening...it may
also need to be extended into Friday.
JM
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025
With multiple days of near-record to record-breaking heat expected
over the upcoming week, here`s a look at the daily high temperature
records through Monday (May 19th).
May 14th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 96F (1925)
- Houston/IAH: 93F (2018)
- Houston/Hobby: 93F (1961)
- Palacios: 91F (2024)
- Galveston: 90F (2024)
May 15th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 95F (1925)
- Houston/IAH: 94F (2018)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (1978)
- Palacios: 93F (1943)
- Galveston: 89F (2022)
May 16th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 95F (2003)
- Houston/IAH: 94F (2022)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (2022)
- Palacios: 88F (2010)
- Galveston: 90F (2022)
May 17th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 96F (1925)
- Houston/IAH: 96F (2018)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (2018)
- Palacios: 93F (2003)
- Galveston: 90F (2020)
May 18th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 98F (2022)
- Houston/IAH: 95F (2022)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (2022)
- Palacios: 89F (2022)
- Galveston: 90F (2022)
May 19th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 94F (2022)
- Houston/IAH: 95F (2003)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (2008)
- Palacios: 89F (2024)
- Galveston: 90F (2022)
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 98 72 97 76 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 96 75 96 77 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 87 77 85 77 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
TXZ176-195>198.
Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ330-335-350-
355.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from Thursday afternoon
through Thursday evening for GMZ330-335-350-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....Adams
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...JM
I’m seeing signs of rain returning to our area next week, but it’s a long ways out so low confidence for now.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6091
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Ntxw ( over at s2K, who I admire and is a great range forecaster) feels like this will be short lived...
"We'll see if 100F actually occurs. If it does, note in May of 2022 and 2023 as hot as they were we did not achieve 100F or greater. Heights aren't that impressive so crazy to see such temps. Short but very sharp heat spell."
"We'll see if 100F actually occurs. If it does, note in May of 2022 and 2023 as hot as they were we did not achieve 100F or greater. Heights aren't that impressive so crazy to see such temps. Short but very sharp heat spell."
God, I hope so. The Space City Wx duo seems to have a much greater sense of foreboding regarding this heat wave and what it likely (in their opinion) portends for the rest of the Summer.tireman4 wrote: ↑Wed May 14, 2025 9:03 am Ntxw ( over at s2K, who I admire and is a great long range forecaster) feels like this will be short lived...
"We'll see if 100F actually occurs. If it does, note in May of 2022 and 2023 as hot as they were we did not achieve 100F or greater. Heights aren't that impressive so crazy to see such temps. Short but very sharp heat spell."
To quote their entry this morning directly....
"This is not particularly where one wants to be in the middle of May, with at least four months of summer ahead. But here we are. Matt and I are working on a summer preview, which we will publish in a couple of days. I don’t want to spoil anything, but I don’t think there will be any surprises. This high pressure pattern currently in place, known as an Omega block, can be fairly persistent. And seeing one at this time of year is not a good sign."
I can deal with the 90’s if the wind keeps blowing like this.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5382
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Its gonna be the same thing every summer, hot miserable, droughts, yes the strength of this heat wave is very unusual for may, but in a couple of weeks- july and august, its just gonna be youre typical texas heat wave
It’s not even that bad out there, IMO, but then again it seems to be several degrees cooler in my location compared to most others on here.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6091
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025
VFR conditions and gusty south/southwest winds are expected
throughout the rest of the daytime. Wind gusts should diminish
this evening with MVFR CIGS slowly filling in from the coast
overnight into Thursday. During this time frame, a low level jet
will strengthen, bringing wind shear from strong southwest winds
of 35-45 knots around 2000 feet. This jet & wind shear will be
most prominent over the northern TAF sites, though wind shear
groups may be expanded to include southern terminals. Gusty winds
resume Thursday morning as CIGS clear and wind shear weakens.
03
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025
VFR conditions and gusty south/southwest winds are expected
throughout the rest of the daytime. Wind gusts should diminish
this evening with MVFR CIGS slowly filling in from the coast
overnight into Thursday. During this time frame, a low level jet
will strengthen, bringing wind shear from strong southwest winds
of 35-45 knots around 2000 feet. This jet & wind shear will be
most prominent over the northern TAF sites, though wind shear
groups may be expanded to include southern terminals. Gusty winds
resume Thursday morning as CIGS clear and wind shear weakens.
03
The clouds are gonna keep me from hitting 100.
Fine with me. I was doing some yard work and it’s not bad, the breeze even felt a little cool in the shade. Definitely not a blast furnace yet.
Fine with me. I was doing some yard work and it’s not bad, the breeze even felt a little cool in the shade. Definitely not a blast furnace yet.
To be fair SE Texas can and does have wet Summers occasionally. It isn’t always dominated by a heat ridge every Summer. Being near the Gulf helps.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed May 14, 2025 11:37 am Its gonna be the same thing every summer, hot miserable, droughts, yes the strength of this heat wave is very unusual for may, but in a couple of weeks- july and august, its just gonna be youre typical texas heat wave
Now up here is a different story though… As flash drought and extreme heat is almost a guarantee from July-August. What helps to balance things out at least is that Wichita Falls sees all 4 seasons. So once September is here the fronts start to return again and cool things off. But the heart of Summer can be brutal lol. I’ve said this before but I find it fascinating that this area can get so extremely cold but also so extremely hot.
-
- Information
-
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Ahrefs [Bot], Bing [Bot], Google [Bot] and 9 guests