July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain

[tireman4]

92L as of now...

[sau27]

Now lets see what the ensembles have to say.

[unome]

mimic-tpw 24-hr animated gif http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... latest.gif

version 2.m is better, but only in html - you can select the layer you want to view

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

[unome]

best-track data, so far (currently thru 18Z)

http://hurricanecity.com/models/archive ... _Track.txt

Code: Select all

AL, 92, 2019070712,   , BEST,   0, 350N,  856W,  15, 1012, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0, GENESIS005,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 005, 
AL, 92, 2019070718,   , BEST,   0, 346N,  851W,  15, 1012, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0, GENESIS005,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 005, 
AL, 92, 2019070800,   , BEST,   0, 341N,  846W,  15, 1011, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0, GENESIS005,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 005, 
AL, 92, 2019070806,   , BEST,   0, 336N,  841W,  15, 1011, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0, GENESIS005,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 005, 
AL, 92, 2019070812,   , BEST,   0, 331N,  837W,  15, 1011, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1013,  150,  80,  20,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 005, SPAWNINVEST, al762019 to al922019, 
AL, 92, 2019070818,   , BEST,   0, 325N,  834W,  15, 1011, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1013,  150,  80,  20,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 005, 
AL, 92, 2019070900,   , BEST,   0, 318N,  833W,  15, 1011, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  150,  80,  20,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 005, 
AL, 92, 2019070906,   , BEST,   0, 310N,  834W,  15, 1011, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1013,  150,  80,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 005, 
AL, 92, 2019070912,   , BEST,   0, 302N,  836W,  20, 1011, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1013,  150,  80,  30,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 005, 
AL, 92, 2019070918,   , BEST,   0, 295N,  840W,  20, 1011, LO,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1014,  150,  80,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 005, 

[sau27]

Thus far 12Z Euro Ensemble still largely pointing at LA. A few members still have the storm in an area that could impact us so the story isnt over yet.

[tireman4]

12Z model guidance increases confidence that #92L will become at least a TS.What it does NOT do:- Give high confidence in 92L's peak intensity- Narrow landfall location as much as you might thinkWhat is certain:- 92L is slow mover; flooding rain will accompany landfall
-- Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits) July 9, 2019

[tireman4]

Even before this Gulf system becomes a depression, likely in next day or two, @NHC_Atlantic has the option to start advisories on it as a potential tropical cyclone any time, if they also want to issue a tropical storm watch or warning for land areas. A possibility this evening. pic.twitter.com/PkVeL5x5eT
-- Dr. Rick Knabb (@DrRickKnabb) July 9, 2019

[stormlover]

Lol man people jump the gun on models, yesterday had tx and now today la. We don’t have a center yet I think we will know for tomorrow morning what could happen. I wouldn’t be surprised one bit it’s more east or more west tonight or in the morning.

[dbrooks77346]

Lol man people jump the gun on models, yesterday had tx and now today la. We don’t have a center yet I think we will know for tomorrow morning what could happen. I wouldn’t be surprised one bit it’s more east or more west tonight or in the morning.

Good Point.

[tireman4]

NAM 18z 24 Hours Out

[tireman4]

Great discussion at Storm 2k ( thanks NDG) about this ever changing situation...

[sau27]

12 Euro Ensemble spread still keeps our area in the equation. Just a reminder not to focus on the track of only the operational run.

[tireman4]

18z NAM for entertainment purposes only

[Texaspirate11]

Dude...its the NAM ...

[stormlover]

Icon shifted west also

[srainhoutx]

HGX Forecaster Overpeck provided another awesome afternoon forecast discussion for our SE Texas region. Well worth the read...

[srainhoutx]

Tuesday afternoon Update from Jeff:

Tropical cyclone likely to develop over the NE Gulf of Mexico in the next 24-36 hours

Residents along the US Gulf coast from MS to the upper TX coast should closely monitor the progress of this system

Review hurricane plans and have supplies stocked.

Discussion:

A review of visible satellite data, surface observations, and radar images across the NE Gulf and FL indicate that the broad rotation associated with the mid level disturbance is currently spreading into the extreme NE Gulf waters. A couple other features to note is an elongated WNW to ESE trough axis across the NE Gulf of Mexico from near SE LA into the eastern Gulf and spin noted on the Tampa radar west of Tampa which is likely based just above the surface and is potentially a convectively induced vort. Overall spin on satellite is largely based above the surface as was expected. There has certainly been an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity today across this region. Expect the current activity near the coast to weaken this evening with new development overnight focusing well offshore near the trough axis and possibly back east toward the “vort” west of Tampa. This convection overnight should start the process of a more defined surface low formation.

Track:

Guidance has generally trended eastward today with the overall potential landfall area converging on LA. With that said the formation of a surface center continues to be critical in the ultimate final outcome of this system as well as the steering features including a developing ridge over the SW US and trough passing across the Great Lakes. Models today have trend slightly deeper with the trough over the Great Lakes allowing a more northward pull on the system in the Gulf and hence the trend in the guidance envelope toward the east and north. I am always a bit leary in just exactly how far these mid summer troughs will actually reach…this one is really right on the cusp of grabbing the system or missing it. How quickly the mid level and surface centers align over the Gulf and where the center forms will play a crucial role in the track of the system. One other item that will need to be watched for is the potential for deep convection to “pull” any low level center in that direction. With weak NNE/NE wind shear the deep convection could be displaced on the south/southwest flank of the system resulting in a “tugging” of the surface low toward the south.

The forecast tracks remains uncertain and changes remain possible. As much as folks want answers on where this is going to go…some of these answers are just not available at this time.

Overall timing remains fairly unchanged with the system approaching the US Gulf coast on Saturday…with some of the fastest guidance showing a Saturday morning landfall and the slowest a Saturday evening.

Intensity:

Another trend today has been a general increase in the intensity guidance with most models now showing a tropical storms and a few a hurricane into the US Gulf coast. Once the surface and mid level centers align, which could take a good 36-48 hours it appears conditions will be fairly favorable for intensification. This is most noted in the recent 12Z guidance which is a bit more aggressive on intensification especially in the last 12-24 hours before landfall. This is certainly a potential case where much of the intensification could take place just before landfall as conditions near the US Gulf coast look favorable and so there could be little time to react.

A tropical storm or hurricane is possible

Impacts:

With uncertainty still fairly high the best course of action remains to just adjust for some higher rainfall chances this weekend and leave it at that. Will likely see higher period swells at some point Friday into the weekend which could result in higher than normal tides along the upper TX coast. Any impacts across our area would likely not be until late Friday at the earliest and more likely on Saturday should the system head more in our direction.

Actions:



· Monitor forecast twice a day

Check and stock hurricane kits and have plans ready to be enacted this week
Be ready to enact hurricane response and COOP plans by the middle to end of this week
Follow trusted weather sources for information (National Hurricane Center, Houston/Galveston National Weather Service, West Gulf River Forecast Center and local government) for any recommendations

[cperk]

HGX Forecaster Overpeck provided another awesome afternoon forecast discussion for our SE Texas region. Well worth the read...

That was a great discussion.

[Scott747]

At this point we're getting into a window that unless there is an about face on that trough, or the area down by Tampa were to take hold that the modeling consensus is likely to be right.

[Rip76]

Man it’s going to be hot and dry here.