EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
428 AM EDT FRI JUN 03 2016
...VALID 12Z FRI JUN 03 2016 - 12Z SAT JUN 04 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 NNW 1F9 20 SSW PVJ 10 WNW ADH 10 W MLC 40 SSE MLC 10 SW PRX
15 W 3T1 15 WNW PSN 35 NW UTS 10 SE UTS 25 SSE LFK 20 WNW POE
10 SE ESF 35 N BTR 25 NNW ASD 25 S BIX 10 W RAM 10 NNE KMYT
20 SSE GSM 30 SSE W60 20 NW KHHV 55 SSE KMZG 30 ESE KMIU
15 SW KMIU 25 SE NQI NQI 15 NW ALI 35 E COT 30 NE COT 25 NW UVA
25 S ECU 20 WNW ECU 10 SW E29 25 SSW SJT 25 NNE SJT 25 WNW 1F9
25 NNW 1F9.
MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 SW SRN 40 NNE KEHC 15 ENE KCRH 15 WNW KCRH 25 SE KXIH
15 ENE KGVX 10 N KBBF 25 NW KMZG 15 W RKP 45 N ALI 45 S SSF
20 SE HDO 10 SW JCT 20 W BWD 10 N SEP INJ 30 SSW CRS 10 SSW LHB
15 ESE 11R 10 WNW DWH 10 S CXO 20 ESE CXO 40 E CXO 40 SW JAS
10 SSW JAS 10 E JAS 20 WNW DRI DRI 20 SE DRI 25 SSW ACP
10 WNW LFT 10 NNE ARA 15 W PTN 10 SSE SRN 25 SW SRN.
CENTRAL TO EASTERN TX---WESTERN TO CENTRAL GULF COAST
THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL TO EASTERN TEXAS AND EAST OF
THIS INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST. FOR QPF
DETAILS THIS PERIOD---WPC IS FAVORING THE HI RES ARW AND CMC GEM
AS THESE MODELS HAVE PERFORMED WELL OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND
GENERALLY PERFORM BETTER WITH LARGER SCALE CONVECTIVE EVENTS.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SLOW MOVING
CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL TO EASTERN TX AND FARTHER EASTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL GULF COAST IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST ONSHORE
FLOW OFF THE WESTERN GULF.
WHILE THE CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE CLOSED LOW ARE NOT HIGH---THE LOWERED FFG
VALUES FROM RECENT RAINS WARRANTS AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST TX WHERE ADDITIONAL MAX AMOUNTS
OF 2-4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. THE SAME WILL IS TRUE ACROSS THE
WESTERN TO CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGIONS WHERE THE CURRENT
DEVELOPING CONVECTION OFF THE LOWER TO CENTRAL TX COAST IS
EXPECTED TO PRESS NORTHEASTWARD---IMPACTING AREAS WHERE HEAVY
RAINS HAVE FALLEN RECENTLY AND LOWERED FFG VALUES. THERE IS SOME
TIMING UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS DEVELOPING CONVECTION. WHILE WPC
FAVORED THE HI RES ARW TIMING THE MOST---A SLOWER SOLUTION IS
STILL POSSIBLE WHICH WOULD POSE THE THREAT OF MORE RAIN OVER THE
LOWER FFG VALUE AREA OF THE UPPER TX COAST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EITHER WAY--INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2"+ IN AN HOUR AND ISOLATED TOTALS OF 5"+
POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS.
![Image](http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94ewbg.gif?1464947093391)