That's a bit of an odd forecast which show how uncertain the forecasters are.
First you don't ofen see a red zone in excessive outlooks and its such a confines area that barely show much land mass when basing it on the graphic.
Secondly, the moderate areas on day two could be anywhere depending on where the low shears out.
Only saving grace so far is that it hasn't displayed true warm core characteristics of the past. Still early though.....
JUNE 2016: Showers/Storms Possible
-
houstonia
- Posts: 138
- Joined: Sun Jun 14, 2015 6:51 pm
- Location: Houston, Texas (Southwest side; Sharpstown)
- Contact:
12 AM Aviation discussion:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1156 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016
.AVIATION...
A couple of areas of thunderstorms were moving northeastward from
the South Texas plains toward SE Texas at 05Z. The first area
appears to have slowly weakened during the past hour. However, the
storms were moving fast enough to include wind gusts at least over
the coastal sites through 10Z. Do expect thunderstorm and MVFR
chances to increase with the storms moving over most of the sites
between 06Z and 11Z.
The reasoning for Friday continues. The upper low over North Texas
will continue to slowly meander eastward and keep conditions
primed for thunderstorm development. Another break in the activity
should occur sometime during Friday evening.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1156 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016
.AVIATION...
A couple of areas of thunderstorms were moving northeastward from
the South Texas plains toward SE Texas at 05Z. The first area
appears to have slowly weakened during the past hour. However, the
storms were moving fast enough to include wind gusts at least over
the coastal sites through 10Z. Do expect thunderstorm and MVFR
chances to increase with the storms moving over most of the sites
between 06Z and 11Z.
The reasoning for Friday continues. The upper low over North Texas
will continue to slowly meander eastward and keep conditions
primed for thunderstorm development. Another break in the activity
should occur sometime during Friday evening.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
428 AM EDT FRI JUN 03 2016
...VALID 12Z FRI JUN 03 2016 - 12Z SAT JUN 04 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 NNW 1F9 20 SSW PVJ 10 WNW ADH 10 W MLC 40 SSE MLC 10 SW PRX
15 W 3T1 15 WNW PSN 35 NW UTS 10 SE UTS 25 SSE LFK 20 WNW POE
10 SE ESF 35 N BTR 25 NNW ASD 25 S BIX 10 W RAM 10 NNE KMYT
20 SSE GSM 30 SSE W60 20 NW KHHV 55 SSE KMZG 30 ESE KMIU
15 SW KMIU 25 SE NQI NQI 15 NW ALI 35 E COT 30 NE COT 25 NW UVA
25 S ECU 20 WNW ECU 10 SW E29 25 SSW SJT 25 NNE SJT 25 WNW 1F9
25 NNW 1F9.
MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 SW SRN 40 NNE KEHC 15 ENE KCRH 15 WNW KCRH 25 SE KXIH
15 ENE KGVX 10 N KBBF 25 NW KMZG 15 W RKP 45 N ALI 45 S SSF
20 SE HDO 10 SW JCT 20 W BWD 10 N SEP INJ 30 SSW CRS 10 SSW LHB
15 ESE 11R 10 WNW DWH 10 S CXO 20 ESE CXO 40 E CXO 40 SW JAS
10 SSW JAS 10 E JAS 20 WNW DRI DRI 20 SE DRI 25 SSW ACP
10 WNW LFT 10 NNE ARA 15 W PTN 10 SSE SRN 25 SW SRN.
CENTRAL TO EASTERN TX---WESTERN TO CENTRAL GULF COAST
THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL TO EASTERN TEXAS AND EAST OF
THIS INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST. FOR QPF
DETAILS THIS PERIOD---WPC IS FAVORING THE HI RES ARW AND CMC GEM
AS THESE MODELS HAVE PERFORMED WELL OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND
GENERALLY PERFORM BETTER WITH LARGER SCALE CONVECTIVE EVENTS.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SLOW MOVING
CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL TO EASTERN TX AND FARTHER EASTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL GULF COAST IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST ONSHORE
FLOW OFF THE WESTERN GULF. WHILE THE CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE CLOSED LOW ARE NOT HIGH---THE LOWERED FFG
VALUES FROM RECENT RAINS WARRANTS AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST TX WHERE ADDITIONAL MAX AMOUNTS
OF 2-4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. THE SAME WILL IS TRUE ACROSS THE
WESTERN TO CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGIONS WHERE THE CURRENT
DEVELOPING CONVECTION OFF THE LOWER TO CENTRAL TX COAST IS
EXPECTED TO PRESS NORTHEASTWARD---IMPACTING AREAS WHERE HEAVY
RAINS HAVE FALLEN RECENTLY AND LOWERED FFG VALUES. THERE IS SOME
TIMING UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS DEVELOPING CONVECTION. WHILE WPC
FAVORED THE HI RES ARW TIMING THE MOST---A SLOWER SOLUTION IS
STILL POSSIBLE WHICH WOULD POSE THE THREAT OF MORE RAIN OVER THE
LOWER FFG VALUE AREA OF THE UPPER TX COAST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EITHER WAY--INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2"+ IN AN HOUR AND ISOLATED TOTALS OF 5"+
POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS.
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
428 AM EDT FRI JUN 03 2016
...VALID 12Z FRI JUN 03 2016 - 12Z SAT JUN 04 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 NNW 1F9 20 SSW PVJ 10 WNW ADH 10 W MLC 40 SSE MLC 10 SW PRX
15 W 3T1 15 WNW PSN 35 NW UTS 10 SE UTS 25 SSE LFK 20 WNW POE
10 SE ESF 35 N BTR 25 NNW ASD 25 S BIX 10 W RAM 10 NNE KMYT
20 SSE GSM 30 SSE W60 20 NW KHHV 55 SSE KMZG 30 ESE KMIU
15 SW KMIU 25 SE NQI NQI 15 NW ALI 35 E COT 30 NE COT 25 NW UVA
25 S ECU 20 WNW ECU 10 SW E29 25 SSW SJT 25 NNE SJT 25 WNW 1F9
25 NNW 1F9.
MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 SW SRN 40 NNE KEHC 15 ENE KCRH 15 WNW KCRH 25 SE KXIH
15 ENE KGVX 10 N KBBF 25 NW KMZG 15 W RKP 45 N ALI 45 S SSF
20 SE HDO 10 SW JCT 20 W BWD 10 N SEP INJ 30 SSW CRS 10 SSW LHB
15 ESE 11R 10 WNW DWH 10 S CXO 20 ESE CXO 40 E CXO 40 SW JAS
10 SSW JAS 10 E JAS 20 WNW DRI DRI 20 SE DRI 25 SSW ACP
10 WNW LFT 10 NNE ARA 15 W PTN 10 SSE SRN 25 SW SRN.
CENTRAL TO EASTERN TX---WESTERN TO CENTRAL GULF COAST
THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL TO EASTERN TEXAS AND EAST OF
THIS INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST. FOR QPF
DETAILS THIS PERIOD---WPC IS FAVORING THE HI RES ARW AND CMC GEM
AS THESE MODELS HAVE PERFORMED WELL OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND
GENERALLY PERFORM BETTER WITH LARGER SCALE CONVECTIVE EVENTS.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SLOW MOVING
CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL TO EASTERN TX AND FARTHER EASTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL GULF COAST IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST ONSHORE
FLOW OFF THE WESTERN GULF. WHILE THE CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE CLOSED LOW ARE NOT HIGH---THE LOWERED FFG
VALUES FROM RECENT RAINS WARRANTS AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST TX WHERE ADDITIONAL MAX AMOUNTS
OF 2-4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. THE SAME WILL IS TRUE ACROSS THE
WESTERN TO CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGIONS WHERE THE CURRENT
DEVELOPING CONVECTION OFF THE LOWER TO CENTRAL TX COAST IS
EXPECTED TO PRESS NORTHEASTWARD---IMPACTING AREAS WHERE HEAVY
RAINS HAVE FALLEN RECENTLY AND LOWERED FFG VALUES. THERE IS SOME
TIMING UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS DEVELOPING CONVECTION. WHILE WPC
FAVORED THE HI RES ARW TIMING THE MOST---A SLOWER SOLUTION IS
STILL POSSIBLE WHICH WOULD POSE THE THREAT OF MORE RAIN OVER THE
LOWER FFG VALUE AREA OF THE UPPER TX COAST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EITHER WAY--INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2"+ IN AN HOUR AND ISOLATED TOTALS OF 5"+
POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
Good Friday morning everyone .... More of the same today I'm afraid...Flash Flood Watch continues today ..... here's the morning NWS Discussion.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
433 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Next impulse rounding the base of the upper low situated over
ncntl Tx is triggering shra/tstms off the coast early this
morning. Rough trajectory should take the bulk of expanding precip
along/ESE of the Highway 59 corridor this morning. Suspect higher
coverage offshore will (at least temporarily) disrupt more
significant moisture inflow further inland to the NW. GPSMet data
shows PW`s have also diminished across the region - now running
1.5-1.7". Based on this...would tend to think higher QPF amounts
will be along the coast and E/SE of Highway 59 into the early
afternoon where training cells will still need to be monitored. Do
anticipate additional precip to generate with afternoon heating
and as additional disturbances rotate around the low and PW`s
trend back upward. Though we could probably get away with trimming
parts of the the Flash Flood Watch...am going to leave it as/is.
Have seen too many crazy things happen in these patterns in the
past. There have been some model signals showing potential for
some significant core rains overnight into Sat morning. Overall
fcst confidence regarding details is low, but need to keep a close
eye on our western counties.
The low pressure area will gradually sink southward in to the
Valley by Sunday afternoon which should gradually allow some drier
air to filter into the region from the north. But in the
meantime...look for "spokes" of precipitation to continue across
the area.
Lingering shear axis & seabreeze near the coast will allow for
some iso/sct precip during the early and middle parts of next
week. But...overall pattern won`t be as favorable for widespread
significant wx that we`ve been in - transitioning to more of a
usual summer pattern. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Quite a bit of activity moving into the coastal waters from the W/SW
this morning. Variable and elevated winds in and near the storms are
likely during the short-term, but still expecting an overall pattern
of mostly light/moderate onshore winds through the weekend. All this
unsettled weather should persist at least a few more days as the re-
sponsible upper level low meanders around south central TX before it
weakens/retrogrades further SW with time. This scenario will help to
push a cold front into the coastal waters late Sun/Mon. The Tropical
Weather Outlook as some interesting happenings in/around the Yucatan
or southern Gulf by the start of next week. Will have to wait to see
how this affects our offshore wind forecasts. 41
&&
.AVIATION...
A messy forecast will likely continue as there is a lot of unsettled
weather developing in and around the area in response to the meander-
ing upper low over south central TX. IFR conditions possible in/near
thunderstorms that do form today. Confidence remains low with timing
of these storms from guidance. Will be leaning heavily on radar/meso
trends with the 12z TAF set likely. 41
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
433 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Next impulse rounding the base of the upper low situated over
ncntl Tx is triggering shra/tstms off the coast early this
morning. Rough trajectory should take the bulk of expanding precip
along/ESE of the Highway 59 corridor this morning. Suspect higher
coverage offshore will (at least temporarily) disrupt more
significant moisture inflow further inland to the NW. GPSMet data
shows PW`s have also diminished across the region - now running
1.5-1.7". Based on this...would tend to think higher QPF amounts
will be along the coast and E/SE of Highway 59 into the early
afternoon where training cells will still need to be monitored. Do
anticipate additional precip to generate with afternoon heating
and as additional disturbances rotate around the low and PW`s
trend back upward. Though we could probably get away with trimming
parts of the the Flash Flood Watch...am going to leave it as/is.
Have seen too many crazy things happen in these patterns in the
past. There have been some model signals showing potential for
some significant core rains overnight into Sat morning. Overall
fcst confidence regarding details is low, but need to keep a close
eye on our western counties.
The low pressure area will gradually sink southward in to the
Valley by Sunday afternoon which should gradually allow some drier
air to filter into the region from the north. But in the
meantime...look for "spokes" of precipitation to continue across
the area.
Lingering shear axis & seabreeze near the coast will allow for
some iso/sct precip during the early and middle parts of next
week. But...overall pattern won`t be as favorable for widespread
significant wx that we`ve been in - transitioning to more of a
usual summer pattern. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Quite a bit of activity moving into the coastal waters from the W/SW
this morning. Variable and elevated winds in and near the storms are
likely during the short-term, but still expecting an overall pattern
of mostly light/moderate onshore winds through the weekend. All this
unsettled weather should persist at least a few more days as the re-
sponsible upper level low meanders around south central TX before it
weakens/retrogrades further SW with time. This scenario will help to
push a cold front into the coastal waters late Sun/Mon. The Tropical
Weather Outlook as some interesting happenings in/around the Yucatan
or southern Gulf by the start of next week. Will have to wait to see
how this affects our offshore wind forecasts. 41
&&
.AVIATION...
A messy forecast will likely continue as there is a lot of unsettled
weather developing in and around the area in response to the meander-
ing upper low over south central TX. IFR conditions possible in/near
thunderstorms that do form today. Confidence remains low with timing
of these storms from guidance. Will be leaning heavily on radar/meso
trends with the 12z TAF set likely. 41
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19622
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
Quick note on the longer range guidance into late next week/weekend. The Global guidance suggest a upper ridge moving out of the NW Caribbean Sea into the Gulf. Very deep tropical moisture near 2.4 inches appears to advance towards the Mexico and Texas Coast during that time. The GFS solution at this longer range suggest a weak surface reflection hugging the Western Gulf Coast from Vera Cruz up to Brownsville while the ECMWF suggests a weak surface reflection moving off the Yucatan Peninsula moving a bit further up the Coast into SW Louisiana.
Snip from NWS Austin/San Antonio:
Beyond the forecast, for next weekend the 11th and 12th of June,
the GFS brings a slug of tropical moisture with PWS above 2 inches
and as high as 2.4 inches. This would bring more potential rounds
of heavy rains. Stay tuned.
We have enough on our weather plate the next couple of days to monitor, but will monitor the trends next week since it's that time of year when we keep one eye on the Tropics. The disturbance that the NHC is monitor now appears to be heading for Florida with heavy rainfall and possibly some gusty thunderstorm winds.
Back in watching our pesky upper low/trough for the rest of the weekend.
Snip from NWS Austin/San Antonio:
Beyond the forecast, for next weekend the 11th and 12th of June,
the GFS brings a slug of tropical moisture with PWS above 2 inches
and as high as 2.4 inches. This would bring more potential rounds
of heavy rains. Stay tuned.
We have enough on our weather plate the next couple of days to monitor, but will monitor the trends next week since it's that time of year when we keep one eye on the Tropics. The disturbance that the NHC is monitor now appears to be heading for Florida with heavy rainfall and possibly some gusty thunderstorm winds.
Back in watching our pesky upper low/trough for the rest of the weekend.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19622
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
600 AM EDT FRI JUN 03 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX...FAR SOUTHWEST LA
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 030959Z - 031559Z
SUMMARY...CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND SPREAD
INLAND THROUGH SUNRISE INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS...POTENTIALLY
SPREADING ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS OVER SATURATED SOILS.
DISCUSSION...AS A MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS TO THE
WEST...CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO DIRECT DEEP MOISTURE
INTO SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTHWEST LA. THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS
PWS AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES ALONG MUCH OF THE UPPER TX COAST WITH
THE 08 UTC RAP SHOWING A GRADUAL INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF LA AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES. MUCAPES ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG
AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN THAT RANGE THROUGH SUNRISE. THIS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH INCREASING LIFT AFFORDED IN
PART BY FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALONG AN AMPLIFYING UPPER SPEED MAX
POSITIONED EAST OF THE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THE EXPANSION
OF CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN GULF INTO AREAS ALONG THE UPPER TX
AND WESTERN LA COASTS. WHILE MANY OF THE OVERNIGHT HI-RES
GUIDANCE MEMBERS HAVE PROVEN TO BE TOO QUICK TO SPREAD CONVECTION
INLAND...DO AGREE THAT AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES THE THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS WILL INCREASE. AND GIVEN THE WET ANTECEDENT
SOIL CONDITIONS...ANY HEAVY AMOUNTS THAT DO OCCUR ARE LIKELY CAUSE
RUNOFF CONCERNS.
PEREIRA
ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19622
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
718 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2016
GALVESTON TX-
718 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2016
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
* UNTIL 915 AM CDT
* AT 716 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED CLUSTER OF STORMS PRODUCING RAIN
RATES BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES PER HOUR. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL
WHICH WILL LIMIT EFFICIENT DRAINAGE. RAIN RATES THIS HIGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SOME STREET FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
GALVESTON ISLAND WEST END...GALVESTON CAUSEWAY...TEXAS CITY...LA
MARQUE...SANTA FE...HITCHCOCK...GALVESTON PIER 21...BAYOU VISTA...
JAMAICA BEACH...TIKI ISLAND...GALVESTON PLEASURE PIER...SAN LEON...
GALVESTON STATE PARK...THE STRAND...PORT BOLIVAR...OFFATTS BAYOU...HIGH
ISLAND...BOLIVAR PENINSULA...PELICAN ISLAND AND CRYSTAL BEACH.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
718 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2016
GALVESTON TX-
718 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2016
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
* UNTIL 915 AM CDT
* AT 716 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED CLUSTER OF STORMS PRODUCING RAIN
RATES BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES PER HOUR. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL
WHICH WILL LIMIT EFFICIENT DRAINAGE. RAIN RATES THIS HIGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SOME STREET FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
GALVESTON ISLAND WEST END...GALVESTON CAUSEWAY...TEXAS CITY...LA
MARQUE...SANTA FE...HITCHCOCK...GALVESTON PIER 21...BAYOU VISTA...
JAMAICA BEACH...TIKI ISLAND...GALVESTON PLEASURE PIER...SAN LEON...
GALVESTON STATE PARK...THE STRAND...PORT BOLIVAR...OFFATTS BAYOU...HIGH
ISLAND...BOLIVAR PENINSULA...PELICAN ISLAND AND CRYSTAL BEACH.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19622
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
Examining the short fuse meso guidance, there is growing concern particularly this evening into the overnight hours of a potential core rain event. HGX is also concerned about what these shorter term models are suggesting, so it warrants monitoring throughout the day.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Not good if that's the case.
I do see the eastward movement in the frames above.
I do see the eastward movement in the frames above.
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19622
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
GALVESTON TX-CHAMBERS TX-
754 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2016
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHEASTERN GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
EASTERN CHAMBERS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
* UNTIL 1000 AM CDT
* AT 752 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED CLUSTER OF STORMS PRODUCING RAIN
RATES BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES PER HOUR MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL WHICH WILL LIMIT EFFICIENT DRAINAGE.
RAIN RATES THIS HIGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME STREET FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
ANAHUAC...HIGH ISLAND...WINNIE...STOWELL...SMITH POINT...BOLIVAR
PENINSULA AND OAK ISLAND.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
GALVESTON TX-CHAMBERS TX-
754 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2016
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHEASTERN GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
EASTERN CHAMBERS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
* UNTIL 1000 AM CDT
* AT 752 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED CLUSTER OF STORMS PRODUCING RAIN
RATES BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES PER HOUR MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL WHICH WILL LIMIT EFFICIENT DRAINAGE.
RAIN RATES THIS HIGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME STREET FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
ANAHUAC...HIGH ISLAND...WINNIE...STOWELL...SMITH POINT...BOLIVAR
PENINSULA AND OAK ISLAND.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Flooding as we speak in Beaumont. Dangerous training happening and this lightning is un real. Stay safe my friends.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19622
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
Friday morning briefing from Jeff:
***Potentially dangerous flash flood situation remains across SE TX***
Mid level low pressure system over C TX this morning is slowly drifting toward the SSE and will become located over the western counties of SE TX tonight roughly in the region from Austin to College Station to Victoria. Currently disturbances rotating around this system are focusing thunderstorms along and off the upper TX coast currently. Recent radar trends have shown some attempts for showers and thunderstorms trying to develop inland over SE TX in banding type lines, but thus far the activity has not been able to sustain itself…likely due to low level inflow being cut off by the complex of storms off the coast.
As the air mass destabilizes this afternoon expect showers and thunderstorms to gradually develop across the region likely in SSW to NNE bands. This does support a cell training threat, but expecting coverage to be fairly small. However areas that get hit will have a good threat for seeing 2-3 inches of rainfall.
Tonight:
Critical period is tonight as low pressure nears SE TX and models are suggesting a warm core excessive rainfall event is possible near and to the east side of this feature between roughly 1000pm and 800am. Favorable low level inflow will combine with the warm core “tropical” characteristics of the low pressure system to produce sustained convection on the favored vented flank of the system. HRRR and TX TECH WRF both are showing this signal which is concerning. Rainfall amounts with such event can be extreme and have in the past produced tremendous flooding. Think areas west of I-45 are most favored, but the exact location of where the storms develop will be critical in determining where significant flooding may result.
Hydro:
Grounds are super saturated and watershed running very high or in flood. There is little room for additional rainfall and run-off will be maximized even with 1-2 inches of rain.
Brazos River:
Major flooding continues along the Brazos River in Fort Bend and Brazoria Counties. Several subdivisions remain nearly surrounded by water and numerous roadways are flooded and impassable. The river has begun a slow fall at Richmond and is expected to continue a very slow fall.
At Rosharon the river is slowly rising and will crest near 53.0 ft this weekend and hold into early next week. Widespread flooding continues across the floodplain with flow crossing the basin divide into Oyster Creek impacting several communities.
San Jacinto River:
River is in major flood levels on the West Fork at Humble, but has crested and is starting to fall. However the river will remain above flood stage through the weekend.
San Jacinto River at Sheldon:
The river will crest this morning and then begin a slow fall
Tropics:
An area of showers and thunderstorms has increased over the western Caribbean Sea overnight in association with a trade wind burst and surge of tropical moisture. Global models are in good agreement that surface low pressure will develop over the western Caribbean Sea and track into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend into early next week. Models are in good agreement on the general track of the system toward the NNE and NE across the eastern Gulf of Mexico along the tail end of a trough over the SE US coast. Upper level winds do appear somewhat favorable for the system to develop into a tropical storm as it tracks toward the west coast of FL early next week.
[/i]
***Potentially dangerous flash flood situation remains across SE TX***
Mid level low pressure system over C TX this morning is slowly drifting toward the SSE and will become located over the western counties of SE TX tonight roughly in the region from Austin to College Station to Victoria. Currently disturbances rotating around this system are focusing thunderstorms along and off the upper TX coast currently. Recent radar trends have shown some attempts for showers and thunderstorms trying to develop inland over SE TX in banding type lines, but thus far the activity has not been able to sustain itself…likely due to low level inflow being cut off by the complex of storms off the coast.
As the air mass destabilizes this afternoon expect showers and thunderstorms to gradually develop across the region likely in SSW to NNE bands. This does support a cell training threat, but expecting coverage to be fairly small. However areas that get hit will have a good threat for seeing 2-3 inches of rainfall.
Tonight:
Critical period is tonight as low pressure nears SE TX and models are suggesting a warm core excessive rainfall event is possible near and to the east side of this feature between roughly 1000pm and 800am. Favorable low level inflow will combine with the warm core “tropical” characteristics of the low pressure system to produce sustained convection on the favored vented flank of the system. HRRR and TX TECH WRF both are showing this signal which is concerning. Rainfall amounts with such event can be extreme and have in the past produced tremendous flooding. Think areas west of I-45 are most favored, but the exact location of where the storms develop will be critical in determining where significant flooding may result.
Hydro:
Grounds are super saturated and watershed running very high or in flood. There is little room for additional rainfall and run-off will be maximized even with 1-2 inches of rain.
Brazos River:
Major flooding continues along the Brazos River in Fort Bend and Brazoria Counties. Several subdivisions remain nearly surrounded by water and numerous roadways are flooded and impassable. The river has begun a slow fall at Richmond and is expected to continue a very slow fall.
At Rosharon the river is slowly rising and will crest near 53.0 ft this weekend and hold into early next week. Widespread flooding continues across the floodplain with flow crossing the basin divide into Oyster Creek impacting several communities.
River is in major flood levels on the West Fork at Humble, but has crested and is starting to fall. However the river will remain above flood stage through the weekend.
The river will crest this morning and then begin a slow fall
An area of showers and thunderstorms has increased over the western Caribbean Sea overnight in association with a trade wind burst and surge of tropical moisture. Global models are in good agreement that surface low pressure will develop over the western Caribbean Sea and track into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend into early next week. Models are in good agreement on the general track of the system toward the NNE and NE across the eastern Gulf of Mexico along the tail end of a trough over the SE US coast. Upper level winds do appear somewhat favorable for the system to develop into a tropical storm as it tracks toward the west coast of FL early next week.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19622
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
845 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2016
HARRIS TX-LIBERTY TX-CHAMBERS TX-
845 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2016
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHERN CHAMBERS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
* UNTIL 1145 AM CDT
* AT 845 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED
HEAVY RAIN DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA. UP TO ONE INCH OF RAIN HAS
ALREADY FALLEN IN THE PAST HOUR.
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BAYTOWN...LIBERTY...DAYTON...BEACH CITY...BARRETT...CHANNELVIEW...
HIGHLANDS...CLOVERLEAF...KINGWOOD...CROSBY...MONT BELVIEU...OLD
RIVER-WINFREE...AMES...DAISETTA...COVE...DEVERS...SHELDON...HUNTERWOOD...
NORTHSHORE AND ATASCOCITA.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
845 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2016
HARRIS TX-LIBERTY TX-CHAMBERS TX-
845 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2016
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHERN CHAMBERS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
* UNTIL 1145 AM CDT
* AT 845 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED
HEAVY RAIN DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA. UP TO ONE INCH OF RAIN HAS
ALREADY FALLEN IN THE PAST HOUR.
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BAYTOWN...LIBERTY...DAYTON...BEACH CITY...BARRETT...CHANNELVIEW...
HIGHLANDS...CLOVERLEAF...KINGWOOD...CROSBY...MONT BELVIEU...OLD
RIVER-WINFREE...AMES...DAISETTA...COVE...DEVERS...SHELDON...HUNTERWOOD...
NORTHSHORE AND ATASCOCITA.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19622
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1014 AM EDT FRI JUN 03 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN TX...WESTERN LA
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
VALID 031400Z - 031630Z
SUMMARY...HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST TX WILL BE FALLING OVER AREAS OF SATURATED GROUND...AND
WITH INTENSE RAINFALL RATES...FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY.
DISCUSSION...STRONG CONVECTION LIFTING NORTH OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO IS OVERSPREADING THE UPPER TX COAST AND CONTINUES
TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST TX AND PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN
LA. THE ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING
THE BASE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL TX THIS MORNING...AND THE
ENERGY MEANWHILE IS INTERACTING WITH A DEEP POOL OF VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR FOCUSED ALONG THE TX/LA COASTLINE.
THE BLENDED-TPW PRODUCT SHOWS PWATS BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2 INCHES OVER
THE REGION AND THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW OVERSHOOTING TOPS SEEN IN THE
IR-DRIVEN OTD ALGORITHM. THUS THERE SHOULD BE SOME LOCALLY VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES THAT ARE AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES/HR.
WHILE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IS NOT EXPECTED TO
NECESSARILY BE AS FOCUSED OR CONCENTRATED AS IT WAS
YESTERDAY...THE ADDITION OF ANY MORE HEAVY RAIN WILL EXACERBATE
ONGOING RUNOFF PROBLEMS. THE GROUND IS SATURATED AND THUS THE
NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NEAR THE UPPER TX COAST
AND FAR SOUTHWEST LA WITH SUCH INTENSE RAINFALL RATES WILL LIKELY
CAUSE SOME FLASH FLOODING.
ORRISON
ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...SHV...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19622
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
The Weather Prediction Center Expands Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall in their Update Day 1 Outlook.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1055 AM EDT FRI JUN 03 2016
...VALID 15Z FRI JUN 03 2016 - 12Z SAT JUN 04 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
...TEXAS AND LOUISIANA ALONG WITH ADJACENT PORTIONS OF OK/AR/MS...
ALTHOUGH NOT STRONGLY FOCUSED...THE INGREDIENTS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL STAY IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION. THE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BEING FORECAST ARE NOT EXTREME...BUT DO SUPPORT A
BROAD MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL GIVEN THE UNPRECEDENTED
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...MUCH OF WHICH IS BETTER REFLECTED IN THE
STATE OF THE RIVERS AND STREAMS...ALONG WITH DEPARTURES FROM
NORMAL RAINFALL...RATHER THAN THE GRIDDED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
WHICH TENDS TO RECOVER TOO QUICKLY. IN THE 15Z UPDATE WE EXPANDED
THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISK
AREAS...BUT OTHERWISE MADE RELATIVELY LITTLE CHANGE. THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
FOR QPF DETAILS THIS PERIOD---WPC IS FAVORING THE HI RES ARW AND
CMC GEM AS THESE MODELS HAVE PERFORMED WELL OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
AND GENERALLY PERFORM BETTER WITH LARGER SCALE CONVECTIVE EVENTS.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SLOW MOVING
CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL TO EASTERN TX AND FARTHER EASTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL GULF COAST IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST ONSHORE
FLOW OFF THE WESTERN GULF. WHILE THE CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE CLOSED LOW ARE NOT HIGH---THE LOWERED FFG
VALUES FROM RECENT RAINS WARRANTS AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST TX WHERE ADDITIONAL MAX AMOUNTS
OF 2-4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. THE SAME IS TRUE ACROSS THE WESTERN TO
CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGIONS WHERE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAD
COME ONSHORE. INTENSE RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2"+ IN AN HOUR AND
ISOLATED TOTALS OF 5"+ ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG COASTAL
SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1055 AM EDT FRI JUN 03 2016
...VALID 15Z FRI JUN 03 2016 - 12Z SAT JUN 04 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
...TEXAS AND LOUISIANA ALONG WITH ADJACENT PORTIONS OF OK/AR/MS...
ALTHOUGH NOT STRONGLY FOCUSED...THE INGREDIENTS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL STAY IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION. THE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BEING FORECAST ARE NOT EXTREME...BUT DO SUPPORT A
BROAD MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL GIVEN THE UNPRECEDENTED
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...MUCH OF WHICH IS BETTER REFLECTED IN THE
STATE OF THE RIVERS AND STREAMS...ALONG WITH DEPARTURES FROM
NORMAL RAINFALL...RATHER THAN THE GRIDDED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
WHICH TENDS TO RECOVER TOO QUICKLY. IN THE 15Z UPDATE WE EXPANDED
THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISK
AREAS...BUT OTHERWISE MADE RELATIVELY LITTLE CHANGE. THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
FOR QPF DETAILS THIS PERIOD---WPC IS FAVORING THE HI RES ARW AND
CMC GEM AS THESE MODELS HAVE PERFORMED WELL OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
AND GENERALLY PERFORM BETTER WITH LARGER SCALE CONVECTIVE EVENTS.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SLOW MOVING
CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL TO EASTERN TX AND FARTHER EASTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL GULF COAST IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST ONSHORE
FLOW OFF THE WESTERN GULF. WHILE THE CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE CLOSED LOW ARE NOT HIGH---THE LOWERED FFG
VALUES FROM RECENT RAINS WARRANTS AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST TX WHERE ADDITIONAL MAX AMOUNTS
OF 2-4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. THE SAME IS TRUE ACROSS THE WESTERN TO
CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGIONS WHERE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAD
COME ONSHORE. INTENSE RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2"+ IN AN HOUR AND
ISOLATED TOTALS OF 5"+ ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG COASTAL
SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Ok guys, is what came from the gulf towards the TX/LA line our "main event" for today or is more expected to develop out west or south and cross SETX? Ready for all of this to slow down. Thanks in advance.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19622
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
Still believing that the "Main Event" would come in the overnight hours as the circulation over Austin begins to meander South to SW with waves of thunderstorms developing around that circulation. Lower pressures during the night time hours with core rain events are extremely difficult to predict or forecast beyond an hour or two of thunderstorm development...if then. We may not know until the heavy rainfall begins as to where, which neighborhoods or what specific locations could see the greatest threat for flooding. Fingers crossed this will just not develop as some of the guidance suggests and everyone will be just fine. That said with some many weather weary neighbors across our Region, it is prudent to at least explain the potential and prepare as if it is going to happen. We just cannot take any additional heavy rainfall with the saturated soils, very swollen Rivers, Creeks, Bayou's and Regional Lakes.djmike wrote:Ok guys, is what came from the gulf towards the TX/LA line our "main event" for today or is more expected to develop out west or south and cross SETX? Ready for all of this to slow down. Thanks in advance.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
-
Heat Miser
- Posts: 229
- Joined: Wed Nov 27, 2013 12:48 pm
- Location: FM 528 @ I45 border of League City, Webster, Friendswood
- Contact:
I think Jeff answered that in his briefing.djmike wrote:Ok guys, is what came from the gulf towards the TX/LA line our "main event" for today or is more expected to develop out west or south and cross SETX? Ready for all of this to slow down. Thanks in advance.
Tonight:
Critical period is tonight as low pressure nears SE TX and models are suggesting a warm core excessive rainfall event is possible near and to the east side of this feature between roughly 1000pm and 800am. Favorable low level inflow will combine with the warm core “tropical” characteristics of the low pressure system to produce sustained convection on the favored vented flank of the system. HRRR and TX TECH WRF both are showing this signal which is concerning. Rainfall amounts with such event can be extreme and have in the past produced tremendous flooding. Think areas west of I-45 are most favored, but the exact location of where the storms develop will be critical in determining where significant flooding may result.