Tropical Discussion 2025
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Stratton20
- Posts: 5395
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Forst week of june and beyond could get a little interesting in the western caribbean and or gulf , nice boost from the MJO could help to spark something in that time frame, worth watching
Yep, ensemble support has increased today.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue May 27, 2025 6:19 pm Forst week of june and beyond could get a little interesting in the western caribbean and or gulf , nice boost from the MJO could help to spark something in that time frame, worth watching
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6160
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
601
WTPZ31 KNHC 282033
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression One-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025
300 PM CST Wed May 28 2025
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 104.7W
ABOUT 835 MI...1340 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One-E
was located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 104.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A
northwest to north-northwest motion should continue for the next few
days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast over the next couple of days.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Mora
WTPZ31 KNHC 282033
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression One-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025
300 PM CST Wed May 28 2025
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 104.7W
ABOUT 835 MI...1340 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One-E
was located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 104.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A
northwest to north-northwest motion should continue for the next few
days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast over the next couple of days.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Mora
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6160
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
The Eyewall
The 2025 Pacific season opens up, as the Atlantic looks to stay mainly quiet for a bit longer
By Matt Lanza on May 29, 2025
In brief: In the Pacific, while TD One-E (soon likely to be TS Alvin) isn't a serious concern, it may bring an influx of moisture to the Desert Southwest this weekend. On the Atlantic side, it looks mostly quiet for the first week or so of the season.
As a meteorologist who is devoted to communication, it's somewhat important to keep tabs on what is "out there." In other words, what are people seeing or hearing about that they might want to know more about or understand? I have a bunch of news apps and weather news apps that I get push alerts for because I'm a masochist in order to accomplish this. And let me tell you: They are itching for the Pacific season to open up so they have something to alert the masses about. Of course, they keep the push alerts somewhat vague and general to give you a good scare and force you to open the app to find out what terrors may be lurking in order to cash in on that sweet, sweet engagement revenue.
But enough about them.
Pacific system may bring welcome moisture to the Southwest
Yes, folks, the Pacific hurricane season is underway now. It officially began on May 15th. Our first depression has formed, and while it's not expected to become a big storm, it will take on the name Alvin, assuming it becomes a tropical storm.
Tropical Depression One-E is expected to become a tropical storm later today.
From a wind and surge perspective, this won't be a big story. I am somewhat intrigued by the track it takes, which should send it up into Baja because the moisture from this system is likely to push into the Desert Southwest by later this weekend.
Moisture (green and blue) gets flung into the Desert Southwest this weekend into Monday as the remnants of Alvin are funneled north around the east side of an upper-level low pressure system.
That will rev up the rain and storm chances across parts of Arizona in particular but also perhaps Utah, portions of southeast California, Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado.
At this point, it does not look like a major rainfall event, but any sort of tropical moisture plume into the desert can end with flash flooding somewhere.
The rainfall forecast through next week shows that isolated pockets of heavy rainfall are possible as tropical moisture pushes into the Southwest.
Regardless, it will help cool things off. Phoenix sees highs near 105 degrees this Saturday, but the rain chances will nudge high temps back into the mid-90s, a few degrees below normal. Overall, this should hopefully be more beneficial than troublesome.
The Atlantic stays quiet -- mostly
On the other side of Central America, the Atlantic looks to open the season Sunday on a calm note. For now, there are no signs of any realistic attempts at development and most reliable model guidance is showing quiet. That being said, by the end of next week we may start to see some semblance of unsettled weather near the Yucatan. That's a common feature in early June, and it can periodically lead to development (usually sloppy) in the southern Gulf or western Caribbean.
So, at this point, I suspect that the first 10 days of June will be mainly quiet in the Atlantic. But if I were to at least keep track of a place, it would be that Yucatan region starting late next week. More in the days ahead.
The 2025 Pacific season opens up, as the Atlantic looks to stay mainly quiet for a bit longer
By Matt Lanza on May 29, 2025
In brief: In the Pacific, while TD One-E (soon likely to be TS Alvin) isn't a serious concern, it may bring an influx of moisture to the Desert Southwest this weekend. On the Atlantic side, it looks mostly quiet for the first week or so of the season.
As a meteorologist who is devoted to communication, it's somewhat important to keep tabs on what is "out there." In other words, what are people seeing or hearing about that they might want to know more about or understand? I have a bunch of news apps and weather news apps that I get push alerts for because I'm a masochist in order to accomplish this. And let me tell you: They are itching for the Pacific season to open up so they have something to alert the masses about. Of course, they keep the push alerts somewhat vague and general to give you a good scare and force you to open the app to find out what terrors may be lurking in order to cash in on that sweet, sweet engagement revenue.
But enough about them.
Pacific system may bring welcome moisture to the Southwest
Yes, folks, the Pacific hurricane season is underway now. It officially began on May 15th. Our first depression has formed, and while it's not expected to become a big storm, it will take on the name Alvin, assuming it becomes a tropical storm.
Tropical Depression One-E is expected to become a tropical storm later today.
From a wind and surge perspective, this won't be a big story. I am somewhat intrigued by the track it takes, which should send it up into Baja because the moisture from this system is likely to push into the Desert Southwest by later this weekend.
Moisture (green and blue) gets flung into the Desert Southwest this weekend into Monday as the remnants of Alvin are funneled north around the east side of an upper-level low pressure system.
That will rev up the rain and storm chances across parts of Arizona in particular but also perhaps Utah, portions of southeast California, Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado.
At this point, it does not look like a major rainfall event, but any sort of tropical moisture plume into the desert can end with flash flooding somewhere.
The rainfall forecast through next week shows that isolated pockets of heavy rainfall are possible as tropical moisture pushes into the Southwest.
Regardless, it will help cool things off. Phoenix sees highs near 105 degrees this Saturday, but the rain chances will nudge high temps back into the mid-90s, a few degrees below normal. Overall, this should hopefully be more beneficial than troublesome.
The Atlantic stays quiet -- mostly
On the other side of Central America, the Atlantic looks to open the season Sunday on a calm note. For now, there are no signs of any realistic attempts at development and most reliable model guidance is showing quiet. That being said, by the end of next week we may start to see some semblance of unsettled weather near the Yucatan. That's a common feature in early June, and it can periodically lead to development (usually sloppy) in the southern Gulf or western Caribbean.
So, at this point, I suspect that the first 10 days of June will be mainly quiet in the Atlantic. But if I were to at least keep track of a place, it would be that Yucatan region starting late next week. More in the days ahead.
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6160
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
and we are off....
SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 106.3W
ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025
800 AM MST Thu May 29 2025
Tropical Storm Alvin has formed several hundred n mi south of
southwestern Mexico. Satellite imagery shows thunderstorm activity
has increased and has become more organized around the center.
Although the TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates have been steady at
2.0/30 kt, the objective satellite intensity estimates are higher
and generally between 35 and 45 kt. Based on a consensus of the
data, the initial intensity has been increased to 35 kt for this
advisory.
The initial motion is 315/9 kt. The storm is expected to continue
toward the northwest today, then begin turning toward the
north-northwest tomorrow as it moves around a ridge centered over
central Mexico. By tomorrow night, Alvin will begin moving northward
as it is influenced my a mid-level cut-off low. The NHC track
forecast is generally similar to the previous one.
Alvin should continue to strengthen today, within a favorable
environment of warm sea surface temperatures and low wind shear for
about the next 24 hours. The NHC peak intensity remains at 50 kt,
which is near the high end of the model guidance. Weakening is
expected to begin tomorrow as the storm moves into progressively
higher shear and a drier environment with cooler SSTs. There is high
confidence that the system will weaken to a remnant low before it
nears the Baja California Peninsula.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/1500Z 13.8N 106.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 14.7N 107.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 16.1N 108.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 17.6N 108.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 31/1200Z 19.1N 108.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 01/0000Z 20.7N 108.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/1200Z 21.9N 108.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Mora/Cangialosi
SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 106.3W
ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025
800 AM MST Thu May 29 2025
Tropical Storm Alvin has formed several hundred n mi south of
southwestern Mexico. Satellite imagery shows thunderstorm activity
has increased and has become more organized around the center.
Although the TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates have been steady at
2.0/30 kt, the objective satellite intensity estimates are higher
and generally between 35 and 45 kt. Based on a consensus of the
data, the initial intensity has been increased to 35 kt for this
advisory.
The initial motion is 315/9 kt. The storm is expected to continue
toward the northwest today, then begin turning toward the
north-northwest tomorrow as it moves around a ridge centered over
central Mexico. By tomorrow night, Alvin will begin moving northward
as it is influenced my a mid-level cut-off low. The NHC track
forecast is generally similar to the previous one.
Alvin should continue to strengthen today, within a favorable
environment of warm sea surface temperatures and low wind shear for
about the next 24 hours. The NHC peak intensity remains at 50 kt,
which is near the high end of the model guidance. Weakening is
expected to begin tomorrow as the storm moves into progressively
higher shear and a drier environment with cooler SSTs. There is high
confidence that the system will weaken to a remnant low before it
nears the Baja California Peninsula.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/1500Z 13.8N 106.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 14.7N 107.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 16.1N 108.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 17.6N 108.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 31/1200Z 19.1N 108.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 01/0000Z 20.7N 108.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/1200Z 21.9N 108.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Mora/Cangialosi