Tropical Discussion 2025

[tireman4]

Hummm

[tireman4]

Levi Cowan

[Stratton20]

Forst week of june and beyond could get a little interesting in the western caribbean and or gulf , nice boost from the MJO could help to spark something in that time frame, worth watching

[Cpv17]

Forst week of june and beyond could get a little interesting in the western caribbean and or gulf , nice boost from the MJO could help to spark something in that time frame, worth watching

Yep, ensemble support has increased today.

[tireman4]

Zach Nice

[tireman4]

601
WTPZ31 KNHC 282033
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression One-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025
300 PM CST Wed May 28 2025

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 104.7W
ABOUT 835 MI...1340 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One-E
was located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 104.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A
northwest to north-northwest motion should continue for the next few
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast over the next couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Mora

[tireman4]

The Eyewall
The 2025 Pacific season opens up, as the Atlantic looks to stay mainly quiet for a bit longer
By Matt Lanza on May 29, 2025

In brief: In the Pacific, while TD One-E (soon likely to be TS Alvin) isn't a serious concern, it may bring an influx of moisture to the Desert Southwest this weekend. On the Atlantic side, it looks mostly quiet for the first week or so of the season.

As a meteorologist who is devoted to communication, it's somewhat important to keep tabs on what is "out there." In other words, what are people seeing or hearing about that they might want to know more about or understand? I have a bunch of news apps and weather news apps that I get push alerts for because I'm a masochist in order to accomplish this. And let me tell you: They are itching for the Pacific season to open up so they have something to alert the masses about. Of course, they keep the push alerts somewhat vague and general to give you a good scare and force you to open the app to find out what terrors may be lurking in order to cash in on that sweet, sweet engagement revenue.

But enough about them.

Pacific system may bring welcome moisture to the Southwest
Yes, folks, the Pacific hurricane season is underway now. It officially began on May 15th. Our first depression has formed, and while it's not expected to become a big storm, it will take on the name Alvin, assuming it becomes a tropical storm.


Tropical Depression One-E is expected to become a tropical storm later today.
From a wind and surge perspective, this won't be a big story. I am somewhat intrigued by the track it takes, which should send it up into Baja because the moisture from this system is likely to push into the Desert Southwest by later this weekend.


Moisture (green and blue) gets flung into the Desert Southwest this weekend into Monday as the remnants of Alvin are funneled north around the east side of an upper-level low pressure system.
That will rev up the rain and storm chances across parts of Arizona in particular but also perhaps Utah, portions of southeast California, Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado.



At this point, it does not look like a major rainfall event, but any sort of tropical moisture plume into the desert can end with flash flooding somewhere.


The rainfall forecast through next week shows that isolated pockets of heavy rainfall are possible as tropical moisture pushes into the Southwest.
Regardless, it will help cool things off. Phoenix sees highs near 105 degrees this Saturday, but the rain chances will nudge high temps back into the mid-90s, a few degrees below normal. Overall, this should hopefully be more beneficial than troublesome.

The Atlantic stays quiet -- mostly
On the other side of Central America, the Atlantic looks to open the season Sunday on a calm note. For now, there are no signs of any realistic attempts at development and most reliable model guidance is showing quiet. That being said, by the end of next week we may start to see some semblance of unsettled weather near the Yucatan. That's a common feature in early June, and it can periodically lead to development (usually sloppy) in the southern Gulf or western Caribbean.

So, at this point, I suspect that the first 10 days of June will be mainly quiet in the Atlantic. But if I were to at least keep track of a place, it would be that Yucatan region starting late next week. More in the days ahead.

[tireman4]

and we are off....

SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 106.3W
ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES



Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025
800 AM MST Thu May 29 2025

Tropical Storm Alvin has formed several hundred n mi south of
southwestern Mexico. Satellite imagery shows thunderstorm activity
has increased and has become more organized around the center.
Although the TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates have been steady at
2.0/30 kt, the objective satellite intensity estimates are higher
and generally between 35 and 45 kt. Based on a consensus of the
data, the initial intensity has been increased to 35 kt for this
advisory.

The initial motion is 315/9 kt. The storm is expected to continue
toward the northwest today, then begin turning toward the
north-northwest tomorrow as it moves around a ridge centered over
central Mexico. By tomorrow night, Alvin will begin moving northward
as it is influenced my a mid-level cut-off low. The NHC track
forecast is generally similar to the previous one.

Alvin should continue to strengthen today, within a favorable
environment of warm sea surface temperatures and low wind shear for
about the next 24 hours. The NHC peak intensity remains at 50 kt,
which is near the high end of the model guidance. Weakening is
expected to begin tomorrow as the storm moves into progressively
higher shear and a drier environment with cooler SSTs. There is high
confidence that the system will weaken to a remnant low before it
nears the Baja California Peninsula.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 13.8N 106.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 14.7N 107.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 16.1N 108.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 17.6N 108.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 31/1200Z 19.1N 108.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 01/0000Z 20.7N 108.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/1200Z 21.9N 108.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Mora/Cangialosi

[tireman4]

Just posting this...for educational purposes only...

[tireman4]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 021721
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Offshore of the Southeastern U.S. Coast
A non-tropical area of low pressure is forecast to form near or
offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast during the next couple of
days. If the system remains offshore, the low could gradually
develop some subtropical or tropical characteristics later this
week while moving northeastward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[tireman4]

Tropical Weather Outlook

[Stratton20]

Decent signal in the EPS 12z in the 10-12 day window for the southern gulf/ bay of campache, the CAG could set up as MJO moves into phase 8 in the atlantic, thats a favorable phase for tropical development

[Pas_Bon]

I will say this....the GFS is remaining pretty steadfast with its Ghost Storm. We all know the GFS spins every fish fart into a Cat 3 in May/June, but it usually drops it as quickly as it spins them up. This is hanging on a bit.
EPS ensemble is also hinting at some sort of organization of precipitation in the BOC.
We all know here not to get too hung up on these models - especially this far out - but I, personally, will be checking model runs more frequently over the next few/several days.

[Stratton20]

Pas_Bon yeah im still convinced the GFS will eventually give up, but now with some EPS support in the southern gulf in the 10-12 day window, I think its worth keeping a casual eye on for sure

[tireman4]

441
ABNT20 KNHC 031144
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Offshore of the Southeastern U.S. Coast:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is forecast to form near or
offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast along a frontal boundary
during the next couple of days. If the low remains offshore, it
could gradually develop some subtropical or tropical characteristics
later this week while moving northeastward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[tireman4]

The Eyewall
Wee chance of tropical development near the Southeast coast the next couple days
By Matt Lanza on June 3, 2025

In brief: There is a very small chance that a weak tropical system could develop near the Florida or Georgia coasts over the next couple days. Any development would be on the lower end of the intensity scale, and the primary impact will be some heavy rainfall.


A very, very low chance of tropical development exists from a system off the Southeast coast the next couple days. (NOAA NHC)
Un-Sunshine State
A weak disturbance is crawling up and just offshore of Florida's east coast. The odds of this thing actually developing as it comes north are pretty low. Currently the NHC holds the odds around 10 percent. No real model solutions suggest that this will formally organize. Perhaps there's a slightly higher chance of development as it turns the corner past the Carolinas and heads out into the open Atlantic. Whatever the case, in terms of a formal tropical entity forming, the chances are very low.

That being said, there will be impacts from this system as it comes north, and it will primarily come in the form of rainfall. South Florida took on a good dose of rainfall yesterday.


Monday's rainfall in Florida was on the order of 3 to 4 inches in Miami, with higher amounts in Big Cypress (NWS Miami)
A flood watch is in effect for Fort Lauderdale, Miami, the Everglades, and Naples today. While official rainfall forecasts are on the order of another 2 to 4 inches of rain, some model guidance does hint at maximum totals in isolated areas hitting upwards of 6 inches or even a bit more. That would be most likely to occur south of Alligator Alley, which is to say in a less populous part of South Florida. Additional rains are likely tomorrow.


2 to 4 inches of rain in South Florida, with locally higher amounts are likely the next day or two. Additional heavy rain will occur up the Peninsula as well. (Pivotal Weather)
The actual disturbance we're tracking will be up near Jacksonville by tomorrow evening. As it comes northward, it will spread some locally heavy rain up the coast. You can see from the map above how anywhere from 1 to 3 inches of rain is plausible across central and northern Florida. Some sort of weak low will probably come ashore between Savannah and Charleston tomorrow night, bringing more locally heavy rain up the coast there as well. Since this is likely to just sort of track along the coast and move inland from there, the heaviest rains will remain offshore, but anywhere from 1 to 3 inches is possible along the coast from Jacksonville through Myrtle Beach.


About 1 to 3 inches will locally higher amounts will be possible along the coast from Jacksonville through Myrtle Beach. (Pivotal Weather)
From there, the disturbance will turn right and exit the Carolinas out to sea where it will make another attempt at low-end development.

Bottom line? Whether this is unnamed or gets tagged as something formal, the impacts will be the same with locally heavy rain and flash flooding possible on the coast of South Carolina, Georgia, and North Florida, as well as across South Florida.

Elsewhere
Meanwhile, the GFS model has Mariah Carey's "Fantasy" on repeat. It continues to show a fantasy (read: phantom) storm in the 10-to-15-day portion of the model. It remains alone, as it often is this time of year. No other model support exists. So we will continue to disregard it as fantasy. Broadly, conditions become a tinge more favorable next week in the Caribbean or southern Gulf, but we don't see any specific systems of note at this time.

[Stratton20]

Tropical mischief week two? Look where the highest odds of above normal precipitation are located and it matches up with the tropical hazards outlook in the same time frame

[Pas_Bon]

I'm not going to start getting interested at all if the GFS pops up a June Hurricane....especially when it's the only one to do so.

I am, however, going to be checking model runs more frequently if the GFS pops up a June hurricane, the NCEP issues an above normal precip outlook, and the Global Tropical Hazard outlook starts signaling potential mischief.
Like I said previously, the GFS is notorious for turning fish farts into Cat 4's, especially early in the season, but those seem to go away pretty quickly, even within the GFS.
GFS has been holding onto this thing for about a week now and seems to have a hard time letting go.
Again, though, it's nearly 2 weeks out. Way too early.

[Cpv17]

I think if anything comes of this it’ll be a weak to mid grade TS, but it could become a flood threat. I think that’s what we would have to worry about if something were to come this way. Pretty rare to get a stronger system in the Gulf during June. Usually wind shear rips them apart this time of year.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 yeah i saw a post on facebook the other day about hurricanes in june hitting texas, last one was in the very early 1900’s, so yeah that seems pretty unlikely, though even a weak system would cause issues given how saturated soils have become over the last month across se texas