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Re: Invest 92L Central Caribbean
Posted: Wed Aug 04, 2010 9:30 am
by srainhoutx
Certainly some mid or even low level spin going on.
Loop...
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 192245.GIF
Also RECON may be possible...
000
NOUS42 KNHC 041430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT WED 04 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-066
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 05/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0204A COLIN
C. 05/1630Z
D. 23.0N 67.0W
E. 05/1730Z TO 05/2130Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. A 06/1800Z FIX ON COLIN IF STILL A VIABLE
SYSTEM NEAR 27.0N 69.0W.
B. A POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST AT 06/1500Z
NEAR 16.5N 84.5W.
Re: Invest 92L Central Caribbean
Posted: Wed Aug 04, 2010 9:39 am
by wxman57
The massive ridge over Texas and Louisiana (and quite a large region of the Gulf Coast) should steer any developing system west to west-northwest into Central America and/or the Yucatan then on into Mexico for the next week. Don't see any sign of the ridge decaying in the near future. So if 92L develops, it probably tracks across the mid Yucatan Peninsula (just north of Belize) then across the Bay of Campeche into Mexico, possibly up around the Tampico area or a little south of there.
I'm certainly not concerned about it hitting Houston. All the models would have to be completely wrong about the ridge for that to happen.
Re: Invest 92L Central Caribbean
Posted: Wed Aug 04, 2010 9:58 am
by Scott747
Yeah that recon info gives a idea on the general area it will be heading. Far enough S that it seems like C America/Belize and possibly into the BOC for a short time would be the early prognosis.
Re: Invest 92L Central Caribbean
Posted: Wed Aug 04, 2010 12:53 pm
by Scott747
12z HWRF shows 92l clipping the YP as a weak system and moving into the SW Gulf.
Re: Invest 92L Central Caribbean
Posted: Wed Aug 04, 2010 1:03 pm
by Scott747
Still at 20 on the famous NHC percentage meter.
200 PM EDT WED AUG 4 2010
2. CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20
MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Re: Invest 92L Central Caribbean
Posted: Wed Aug 04, 2010 1:26 pm
by srainhoutx
It looks like the convection has weakened a
little from earlier today, but the overall appearance is still rather impressive. Another 24-48 hours and perhaps we will see an low level circulation form.
Re: Invest 92L Central Caribbean
Posted: Wed Aug 04, 2010 1:57 pm
by srainhoutx
Code: Select all
583
WHXX01 KWBC 041823
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1823 UTC WED AUG 4 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100804 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100804 1800 100805 0600 100805 1800 100806 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.0N 73.9W 14.8N 76.7W 15.7N 79.4W 16.5N 81.8W
BAMD 14.0N 73.9W 14.9N 76.5W 15.9N 78.8W 16.9N 80.9W
BAMM 14.0N 73.9W 14.8N 76.6W 15.8N 79.1W 16.8N 81.4W
LBAR 14.0N 73.9W 14.7N 76.5W 15.7N 79.1W 16.9N 81.7W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 47KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 47KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100806 1800 100807 1800 100808 1800 100809 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.2N 84.2W 18.4N 88.7W 20.0N 93.5W 21.9N 98.2W
BAMD 17.8N 82.7W 19.0N 86.4W 20.2N 90.3W 21.1N 94.5W
BAMM 17.7N 83.5W 19.0N 87.8W 20.8N 92.2W 22.6N 96.4W
LBAR 17.9N 84.0W 19.8N 88.0W 21.9N 91.5W 24.3N 94.0W
SHIP 57KTS 69KTS 77KTS 81KTS
DSHP 57KTS 58KTS 42KTS 47KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.0N LONCUR = 73.9W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 13.9N LONM12 = 71.0W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 13.4N LONM24 = 68.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
Re: Invest 92L Central Caribbean
Posted: Wed Aug 04, 2010 3:33 pm
by wxman57
Ed Mahmoud wrote:I know the Euro doesn't show a closed low, but although its ~25 km^2 grids are the best of any global, well, I could see, if the Euro was right, based on grid scale resolution, a closed 1008 mb low with 30 to 40 knot winds. A genuine tropical storm a week from tomorrow at my house.
Just a possibility, but Euro has been King all season.
Maybe a very slim possibility, Ed. That ridge is pretty strong right over Texas, and it's not forecast to weaken for the next 3-5 days. My track is into Mexico south of Tampico if it develops. Don't think it'll get north of about 23N.
Re: Invest 92L Central Caribbean
Posted: Wed Aug 04, 2010 4:52 pm
by srainhoutx
Outflow boundries...(the line of skinny clouds to the N and W)...not looking good for development right now.
Re: Invest 92L Central Caribbean
Posted: Wed Aug 04, 2010 6:31 pm
by Ptarmigan
If the convection persists, I think 92L has a shot at becoming Danielle.
Re: Invest 92L Central Caribbean
Posted: Thu Aug 05, 2010 7:56 am
by srainhoutx
A bit of spin detected this morning...
Re: Invest 92L Central Caribbean
Posted: Thu Aug 05, 2010 9:13 am
by wxman57
But it'll be moving into the coast of Nicaragua/Honduras this evening. Time has just about run out on its chances of development.
Re: Invest 92L Central Caribbean
Posted: Fri Aug 06, 2010 11:31 am
by Scott747
Still doesn't look like anything is organizing but former 92l in appearance stands out over the other two systems.
Re: Invest 92L Central Caribbean
Posted: Fri Aug 06, 2010 12:12 pm
by srainhoutx
92L is back...
Code: Select all
AL, 92, 2010080612, , BEST, 0, 155N, 830W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Re: Invest 92L Central Caribbean
Posted: Fri Aug 06, 2010 12:26 pm
by srainhoutx
Nice banding features. The center fix is S of the stronger convection that appears to be a Mid Level spin IMO.
Re: Invest 92L Near the Yucatan
Posted: Fri Aug 06, 2010 1:03 pm
by srainhoutx
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED BEFORE IT MOVES OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA IN A DAY OR SO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Re: Invest 92L Near the Yucatan
Posted: Fri Aug 06, 2010 1:33 pm
by srainhoutx
Best Track 18Z has shifted North closer to convection...
Code: Select all
AL, 92, 2010080618, , BEST, 0, 163N, 846W, 25, 1009, DB
Code: Select all
WHXX01 KWBC 061816
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1816 UTC FRI AUG 6 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100806 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100806 1800 100807 0600 100807 1800 100808 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.3N 84.6W 16.8N 86.7W 17.5N 89.0W 18.3N 91.3W
BAMD 16.3N 84.6W 16.9N 86.6W 17.5N 88.8W 18.0N 91.0W
BAMM 16.3N 84.6W 16.9N 86.7W 17.6N 89.1W 18.3N 91.3W
LBAR 16.3N 84.6W 17.2N 86.7W 18.2N 89.0W 19.1N 91.3W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 47KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 29KTS 28KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100808 1800 100809 1800 100810 1800 100811 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.4N 93.5W 21.7N 97.8W 23.6N 102.0W 24.5N 105.9W
BAMD 18.4N 93.2W 19.1N 97.8W 19.7N 102.6W 20.1N 108.2W
BAMM 19.0N 93.6W 20.6N 98.2W 21.9N 103.0W 22.5N 108.6W
LBAR 20.0N 93.4W 22.2N 98.0W 24.4N 101.8W 25.7N 104.9W
SHIP 56KTS 71KTS 79KTS 81KTS
DSHP 36KTS 35KTS 28KTS 30KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.3N LONCUR = 84.6W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 15.0N LONM12 = 82.3W DIRM12 = 302DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 14.0N LONM24 = 80.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Re: Invest 92L Near the Yucatan
Posted: Fri Aug 06, 2010 2:16 pm
by srainhoutx
Wide view of all 3 disturbances...
Re: Invest 92L Near the Yucatan
Posted: Fri Aug 06, 2010 3:11 pm
by sambucol
When is the MJO supposed to turn positive and the shear dissipate?
Re: Invest 92L Near the Yucatan
Posted: Fri Aug 06, 2010 3:44 pm
by wxman57
sambucol wrote:When is the MJO supposed to turn positive and the shear dissipate?
The best place to go for an MJO update is the weekly MJO update link here:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... update.ppt
You'll need PowerPoint to view it. Basically, there's no sign of a true MJO for the next few weeks and probably not through the first week of September. It's weak and in the Asian region. Typically, an MJO signal takes a good 30 days to reach from there to the East Pacific. But since this one is weak, it probably won't make it. Shear, however, is steadily falling across the Tropics.
