January 2025

[TexasBreeze]

The 18 gfs has a fairly sharp cutoff northern Harris to the north with only about an inch or so in Northern Harris.

[Nuby33]

In 2004 with the christmas eve snow didn't totals end up being much higher than forecasted by the models or am I remembering wrong..

Don might know the answer to this. That’s a great question.

I remember I made a last second decision to drive down to Galveston during the storm to see the snowfall based on the fact that something crazy was happening that I wasn't expecting, and I was down there during the event, the snowfall was crazy heavy that night.

[jabcwb2]

Montgomery isd is closed Tuesday ans Wednesday.

[TXWeatherMan]

The 18 gfs has a fairly sharp cutoff northern Harris to the north with only about an inch or so in Northern Harris.

I think it’s time to throw out the global models and start looking at the short term models

[snowman65]

There are probaly several people that only have a few places to look for models which are manly global models and not have access to short term specialized models

[Stratton20]

The pictures ive posted, like the rgem snow map above, thats from a paid site, it has a feature which allows me to zoom into certain regions in texas to see actual snowfall numbers for counties that it puts out, same features for all the other short range models on weatherbell, global models will almost never see the heavy snow bands

[Scott747]

2004 was completely unexpected. If I remember correctly there were some soundings out of Corpus the evening before or day of that suggested the potential for some light snow but that was about it. Advisories weren't even issued until the late afternoon and upgraded to a warning before midnight after it was already coming down. Modeling was definitely different back then.

[jabcwb2]

Just honest models!

[Nuby33]

2004 was completely unexpected. If I remember correctly there were some soundings out of Corpus the evening before or day of that suggested the potential for some light snow but that was about it. Advisories weren't even issued until the late afternoon and upgraded to a warning before midnight after it was already coming down. Modeling was definitely different back then.

I agree models have come a long way since back then.. Still can't shake the feeling that this is gonna come with surprises

[jasons2k]

Wonder why the big total differences in some of the models?

This is not a model, it’s the snow forecast issued from the NWS local office at 9am this morning.

[snowman65]

The pictures ive posted, like the rgem snow map above, thats from a paid site, it has a feature which allows me to zoom into certain regions in texas to see actual snowfall numbers for counties that it puts out, same features for all the other short range models on weatherbell, global models will almost never see the heavy snow bands

ok thanks. Can you do a shot of golden triangle, please?

[Stratton20]

thats as close as i can get to beaumont on that model, certain models have the option to zoom into specific regions of texas like se texas on that rgem run i shared , that regem a regional picture, some models on weatherbell even have a section called us cities where you can specifically zoom in to a city to see totals , the rgem cant zoom into specific cities, but i know a couple of models have houston as an option, beaumont might be one too, but ill look and see if i can find that one

[Stratton20]

snowman65 here is the 18z HRRR run from today, i was able to zoom into the golden triangle a bit more, hope this helps!

[jabcwb2]

The 18 gfs has a fairly sharp cutoff northern Harris to the north with only about an inch or so in Northern Harris.

That is absolutely heartbreaking.

[christinac2016]

Does this change for south Montgomery county?

[jasons2k]

The 18 gfs has a fairly sharp cutoff northern Harris to the north with only about an inch or so in Northern Harris.

That is absolutely heartbreaking.

Don’t worry. I’ve hated the 18z GFS for 25 years

It’s an old joke. But seriously, I expect the 00z runs to change around again. They will fluctuate and you’ll probably see some banding pop-up in spots to the N and NW and NE again with gaps in-between. It’s impossible to say where. The overnight mesoscale models should have the “zone” for favored banding (especially the most-favored deformation zone) nailed down pretty good when we all wake up tomorrow. I’m getting my rest tonight after the next football game. Maybe some light snow at the stadium south of Buffalo.

[tireman4]

The 18 gfs has a fairly sharp cutoff northern Harris to the north with only about an inch or so in Northern Harris.

That is absolutely heartbreaking.

Don’t worry. I’ve hated the 18z GFS for 25 years

It’s an old joke. But seriously, I expect the 00z runs to change around again. They will fluctuate and you’ll probably see some banding pop-up in spots to the N and NW and NE again with gaps in-between. It’s impossible to say where. The overnight mesoscale models should have the “zone” for favored banding (especially the most-favored deformation zone) nailed down pretty good when we all wake up tomorrow. I’m getting my rest tonight after the next football game. Maybe some light snow at the stadium south of Buffalo.

Everything Jason said about the 18z GFS, I echo.

[user:null]

Globals are useless at this range, right?

But even mesoscales don't look all that so far. For example, with the NAMs, there has been a clear trend towards suppression. And all of them actually warm the area up above freezing by Tuesday afternoon (most evident on NAM3km). Maybe something is amiss, but these are supposedly the models that "do well with shallow arctic air."

Same for FV3, ICON, etc.

HRRR12z and RGEM are exceptions, but they also have (almost) the entire state below freezing with little warm up (contrary to NWS DFW forecasts).

Trend for NAMs today below. May look similar to UKMET options if it continues. Maybe things move north ... but that also would increase warm nose and make everything a guaranteed sleet job.

[TexasBreeze]

I wouldnt worry too much. This is a mesoscale model time frame now and also now casting as tomorrow comes around. I just posted that as an FYI for my area of Spring.

[sswinney]

Dickinson ISD closed Tuesday and Wednesday.

ICON has near blizzard conditions in my area.