Page 94 of 122
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:25 am
by MontgomeryCoWx
I only have my 3500 watt generator. May get a second today
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:26 am
by Andrew
mcheer23 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:18 am
UKMET west shift...
Code: Select all
HURRICANE LAURA ANALYSED POSITION : 23.3N 85.9W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132020
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.08.2020 0 23.3N 85.9W 993 52
0000UTC 26.08.2020 12 24.6N 89.1W 986 50
1200UTC 26.08.2020 24 26.0N 91.9W 978 60
0000UTC 27.08.2020 36 27.8N 94.0W 969 69
1200UTC 27.08.2020 48 30.3N 94.6W 961 46
0000UTC 28.08.2020 60 33.4N 94.2W 977 36
1200UTC 28.08.2020 72 35.8N 92.8W 986 35
0000UTC 29.08.2020 84 37.4N 90.0W 985 38
1200UTC 29.08.2020 96 37.7N 84.4W 982 35
0000UTC 30.08.2020 108 37.2N 76.9W 988 36
1200UTC 30.08.2020 120 37.7N 70.1W 981 50
0000UTC 31.08.2020 132 39.7N 63.3W 967 63
1200UTC 31.08.2020 144 43.6N 54.1W 944 82
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:27 am
by MontgomeryCoWx
Where is Ukie landfall? I’m going to be dark the next 90 minutes on a conf call.
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:27 am
by mcheer23
CMC west.
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:29 am
by christinac2016
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:20 am
Damnit, that’s 0z... it’s lurking off the coast south of Galveston at 48 hours.
What model is this?
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:30 am
by Tx2005
What is the landfall location for the recent UKMET and CMC, and how much of a west shift?
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:30 am
by Andrew
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:27 am
Where is Ukie landfall? I’m going to be dark the next 90 minutes on a conf call.
Hard to say for sure but probably just east of Bolivar.
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:30 am
by DoctorMu
12Z GEFS-Para - Bolivar Peninsula landfall.
Check out potential wind levels in your area. They've shifted west.
https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=hgx#hti
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:30 am
by mcheer23
Tx2005 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:30 am
What is the landfall location for the recent UKMET and CMC, and how much of a west shift?
Chambers county for UK
Galveston for CMC
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:31 am
by MontgomeryCoWx
christinac2016 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:29 am
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:20 am
Damnit, that’s 0z... it’s lurking off the coast south of Galveston at 48 hours.
What model is this?
Mesoscale NMM-WRF
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:31 am
by Scott747
Looks like the Ukie comes up just e of Galveston and up through Bolivar and Winnie.
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:33 am
by DoctorMu
12z CMC landfall:
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:33 am
by tireman4
[#NerdTweet] Low-level clouds have been consistently evaporating in this region NW of #Laura for the last several hours. While many things could cause this, one potential cause is a slight cool wake from Marco. We can't know for sure, but it's a possible speed-bump for Laura atm. pic.twitter.com/oFZtt0U1yJ
-- Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits) August 25, 2020
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:33 am
by Andrew
CMC (Usually not the most reliable model FWIW)
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:37 am
by christinac2016
tireman4 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:33 am
[#NerdTweet] Low-level clouds have been consistently evaporating in this region NW of #Laura for the last several hours. While many things could cause this, one potential cause is a slight cool wake from Marco. We can't know for sure, but it's a possible speed-bump for Laura atm. pic.twitter.com/oFZtt0U1yJ
-- Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits) August 25, 2020
can you elaborate? What would this mean?
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:38 am
by davidiowx
Cromagnum wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:23 am
I'm not messing around. Just bought me a 6000 watt generator. On prowl now for portable AC
I bought one two days ago lol. Still looking for a 120 portable AC. If you find one please let me know!
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:43 am
by don
Yep 12z UKMET shifts more west by a good margin it moved from the border to Bolivar peninsula.
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:44 am
by Tx2005
Assuming the Euro holds to its last spot plus the ensembles, it’s hard to imagine that they won’t move the track west at 4.
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:46 am
by srainhoutx
Just finished loading up a trailer headed to Houston. My business partner just left driving back for the sale of the business. Most folks other than chasers drive away. Closing set for Friday is still a go. That chapter is almost over. Perhaps I can slow down soon.
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:46 am
by tireman4
christinac2016 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:37 am
tireman4 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:33 am
[#NerdTweet] Low-level clouds have been consistently evaporating in this region NW of #Laura for the last several hours. While many things could cause this, one potential cause is a slight cool wake from Marco. We can't know for sure, but it's a possible speed-bump for Laura atm. pic.twitter.com/oFZtt0U1yJ
-- Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits) August 25, 2020
can you elaborate? What would this mean?
Marco caused an upwelling in the water in the GOM. That cool wake is causing hiccups in the intensification of Laura. This might be temporary.