FEBRUARY 2018 - Roller Coaster WX To End February

[don]

National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
310 PM CST Fri Feb 9 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Early afternoon temperatures range from the upper 50s to lower 60s underneath
the thicker cloud cover to the lower to mid 70s where some sunshine
has actually occurred. Some showers have begun to develop with the
greatest concentration so far to the east and southeast of Galveston
Island and off the Deep South Texas coast. Expect to see a general
increase in coverage later this afternoon and on through this evening.
Conditions are still favorable for more widespread shower and thunderstorm
coverage and an increasing risk for locally heavy rainfall late tonight
through tomorrow morning as precipitable water values rise to very high
early February levels (approaching 1.75 inches) while low level winds
strengthen and a favorable upper level jet structure sets up (see WPC`s
Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook). Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches
with isolated 4 inch amounts will be possible through the weekend with
the higher totals generally along and south of a line from Livingston
to Conroe to Edna. Since rainfall totals are expected to stay just
below flash flood guidance values and probably only produce our normal
localized street flooding on major roads and highways, feeder roads
and intersections, will hold off on issuing a Flash Flood Watch at
this time. A Watch is still possible this evening or overnight if higher
amounts appear likely to develop via radar trends or future model runs.
Anticipate decreasing coverage from west to east as the day progresses
tomorrow and on into tomorrow night. Temperatures will fall and gusty
north winds will develop after the passage of a strong cold front Saturday
night through Sunday morning. With the mid/upper level flow staying
out of the southwest, will be keeping rain chances in the forecast
and indicate a warming trend for the first half of the week. Models
are still indicating mid/upper level ridging building into the area
from the Gulf during the second half of the week, so will continue
to advertise warmer temperatures and lower rain chances. 42

&&

[mckinne63]

I have been advised by KHOU Web Director that the Weather Forum link on KHOU.com will be re established as soon as possible. Their new site is still being attended to by the developer and a request has been sent to restore the Weather Forum link today, if possible.

Awesome news! This is my go to site for what is going on with the weather. I had a hard time getting back here. And I noticed that previously I could click above and go back to KHOU but no longer can do so. They are losing traffic because I just come here first and not worth the trouble to go back to the NEWS section.

[srainhoutx]

Link to the KHOU Weather Forum has been re estblished with the new and improved khou.com site. Click on menu (upper left) and then click on the Weather & Traffic tab to access the KHOU Weather Forum!

[srainhoutx]

I have been advised by KHOU Web Director that the Weather Forum link on KHOU.com will be re established as soon as possible. Their new site is still being attended to by the developer and a request has been sent to restore the Weather Forum link today, if possible.

Awesome news! This is my go to site for what is going on with the weather. I had a hard time getting back here. And I noticed that previously I could click above and go back to KHOU but no longer can do so. They are losing traffic because I just come here first and not worth the trouble to go back to the NEWS section.

Thanks to KHOU Web Director Christine DiStadio we are back live on khou.com. KHOU fully understands the importance of our KHOU Weather Forum to our community and beyond. Thanks for your patience during this transition.

[DoctorMu]

Here's the Direct URL for the KHOU weather forum. It has not changed.

http://forums.khou.com/viewforum.php?f=2


Just add it to your Bookmarks!

[srainhoutx]

Wet morning underway across SE Texas and that should continue through the early morning hours as a jet streak and Coastal trough lift across our Area. Rain should taper down to light rain by the noon hour and we may get a brief break for an hour or two before that cold front arrives early this evening. The overnight shorter range meso guidance have sped up the arrival of the very chilly and shallow dense cold air suggesting the potential of some freezing rain/sleet mixed with rain mainly along and N of a Burnett to Georgetown line in Central Texas. There is a chance that the freezing line may move a bit closer to the I-35 Corridor with the earlier arrival of the cold front. There is an outside chance that some wintry mix may near College Station to Crocket line, but that is low confidence at this early morning hour.

Tonight and tomorrow looks to be very raw with temperatures struggling to get out of the Upper 30's to low 40's most of the day. Rain chances right now appear to taper off Sunday evening leaving us with cloudy and chilly conditions on Monday. A slow warming trends begins Tuesday throughout the work week before a cut off Upper Low that will develop over California moves our way bringing another chance of rain next weekend and possibly another front, if the ECMWF solution is correct.

[Ounce]

2.35" at the WeatherBug site at Memorial and Chimney Rock, since midnight.

[Ounce]

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
814 AM CST SAT FEB 10 2018

TXC039-167-201-101615-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0003.180210T1414Z-180210T1615Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Galveston TX-Brazoria TX-Harris TX-
814 AM CST SAT FEB 10 2018

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
Northwestern Galveston County in southeastern Texas...
Central Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 1015 AM CST.

* At 813 AM CST, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. This will cause minor flooding in the advisory area.
Up to two inches of rain have already fallen.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Southeastern Pasadena, southeastern Pearland, League City, Texas
City, Friendswood, La Porte, Deer Park, Alvin, Angleton, Dickinson,
La Marque, Santa Fe, Seabrook, Webster, Hitchcock, Manvel, Kemah,
Clear Lake, South Belt / Ellington and Nassau Bay.

Additional rainfall of 1 inch is expected over the area. This
additional rain will result in minor flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 2906 9555 2922 9562 2971 9512 2961 9499
2960 9498 2955 9502 2951 9498 2950 9491
2947 9493 2948 9494 2947 9495 2945 9493
2944 9489 2942 9489

$$

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0011
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
928 AM EST SAT FEB 10 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...SE TEXAS...SW LOUISIANA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 101425Z - 102015Z

SUMMARY...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA WITH SMALL TRAINING HEAVY RAIN BANDS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOURLY RAIN RATES COULD REACH 2 IN/HR AND RAINFALL
TOTALS COULD EXCEED 4 INCHES IN LOCALIZED AREAS.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AS OF 12Z INDICATED BROAD 5-10
KT SOUTHEASTERLY INFLOW FROM THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO
COASTAL TEXAS AND LOUISIANA...WITH CALM WINDS AROUND 15-25 MILES
INLAND. THIS WAS SETTING UP A RIBBON OF BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE
FROM NEAR BAY CITY TX...TO NEAR LEAGUE CITY TX...TO NEAR BEAUMONT
TX...AND FURTHER ENE TO JUST NORTH OF LAFAYETTE LA. AS A BROAD
AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL TO THE NORTH OF THIS AXIS...AND
CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG IT...THE THETAE GRADIENT AND CONVERGENCE
MAY BECOME FURTHER ENHANCED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IF THAT
OCCURS...TRAINING CONVECTION WOULD BE INCREASINGLY LIKELY GIVEN
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE 850-300MB LAYER PER THE 12Z LCH
SOUNDING. AND GIVEN OBSERVED PWATS BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.8 INCHES ON
THAT SOUNDING AND GPS-PW ACROSS THE REGION (NEAR RECORD VALUES FOR
FEBRUARY)...ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS.

HGX RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND
40-50 MILES IN LENGTH THAT HAS BEEN TRAINING FOR THE PAST COUPLE
HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF BRAZORIA... GALVESTON... AND FAR SOUTHEAST
HARRIS COUNTIES. THIS APPEARS TO BE ANCHORED RIGHT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE AXIS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK MESOLOW (SLIGHTLY REDUCED
PRESSURE AND MORE FOCUSED CONVERGENCE) IN THIS AREA...AND THE 12Z
RAP ACTUALLY TRIES TO SHIFT SUCH A MESOLOW NORTHEAST INTO PORTIONS
OF LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FOCUSED AREA OF BOUNDARY LAYER
CONVERGENCE. IF THIS WERE TO BECOME MORE COHERENT...IT COULD
FURTHER HELP FOCUS CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS.

BASED ON MESONET OBSERVATIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF BRAZORIA
COUNTY...RAIN RATES HAVE ALREADY APPROACHED 2 IN/HR IN SOME
LOCATIONS....AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN DUAL POL ESTIMATES
FROM THE HGX RADAR. MRMS HAS BEEN UNDERESTIMATING RAINFALL RATES
SLIGHTLY...BUT THE CREST HYDROLOGIC MODEL (DRIVEN BY MRMS
RAINFALL) IS STILL BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE AND
POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING DEVELOPING FROM THIS RAIN BAND.
THEREFORE...DESPITE HIGHER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN THIS
REGION...THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CONVECTION AND RAIN RATES UP
TO AROUND 2 IN/HR SHOULD SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING FROM SE TX INTO SW LA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

LAMERS

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...SHV...

[stormlover]

Srain, when will this end for Beaumont area ?

[srainhoutx]

Srain, when will this end for Beaumont area ?

Looks like around 11 to 1 PM for you folks in the Golden Triangle. Watch those stronger cells over Galveston Bay/Chambers County as they are capable of dropping high rainfall rates with lightning.

[stormlover]

Thanks my man!!

[srainhoutx]

I am getting a bit concerned that our temperatures forecasted for highs tomorrow and Monday may be in jeopardy. The latest NAM solutions suggest most, if not all of SE Texas may struggle to reach the mid to upper 30's with little in a diurnal change from overnight lows. Breezy frigid Northerly winds are likely to drop wind chills down to the low 20's, possibly upper teens across the Hill Country and College Station. The 2 meter temperatures suggest no freezing, but is precariously close to 32F for some locations. There is still a very slight chance someone to the N and W of Metro Houston may see a wintry mix tomorrow.

[mckinne63]

I am getting a bit concerned that our temperatures forecasted for highs tomorrow and Monday may be in jeopardy. The latest NAM solutions suggest most, if not all of SE Texas may struggle to reach the mid to upper 30's with little in a diurnal change from overnight lows. Breezy frigid Northerly winds are likely to drop wind chills down to the low 20's, possibly upper teens across the Hill Country and College Station. The 2 meter temperatures suggest no freezing, but is precariously close to 32F for some locations. There is still a very slight chance someone to the N and W of Metro Houston may see a wintry mix tomorrow.

Even though we are further south, I just told hubby we should drip the faucets just in case. Better to be safe than sorry. Our outside faucets are still wrapped up.

Any indication what time the temps will start dropping?

[srainhoutx]

I don't see pipe busting type cold with this front. The front is passing the Hill Country now way ahead of schedule and may make into Metro Houston shortly after dark and off the Coast by midnight, if the forward progression SE continues at its current rate.

[mckinne63]

Thanks Srain! We are going to the movies, will bring a jacket with me!

[stormlover]

Any more rain chances tonight into the morning ?

[srainhoutx]

Any more rain chances tonight into the morning ?

There is a shortwave rotating in from the Rio Grande Valley that may generate a bit of lift later today and once the front passes, upglide from the Gulf and that noisy sub tropical jet overhead likely will spread above the very shallow/dense cold front suggesting light drizzle/light rain chances continue into tomorrow.

[srainhoutx]

The Arctic front is now in the Northwestern areas of SE Texas. Caldwell is reporting 48F with gusty North winds to 23 MPH and drizzle. There is roughly a 20F drop associated with this front in about an hour.

[srainhoutx]

Front just arrived in Brenham