March 2019: Strong Front/Rain Chance To End March

[Belmer]

The new & old GFS (and the Euro) has been doing fairly well with the system expected to come into the Southern Plains next week. It has had a good grasp on it all week that a potent ULL will drop down the California coast into the Baja region and quickly deepen over-land as it crosses over the Rockies.
Now that the mesoscale models are becoming within range, we should be able to get a better handle on the severe threat for our area.

It looks like the setup will be nearly similar to the low that developed in the Central Plains yesterday and is now making its way up to the Midwest up to the Northeast in that most of the energy looks to be concentrated up north. Still expect a squall line to develop out in west TX and move east. Places like College Station, Huntsville, Livingston and points north will have the greatest chance of some severe weather. The weather in Dallas this morning will probably mirror Wednesday's event, except the severe potential will extend further southward along the squall line. Tornado chances certainly aren't zero, but it doesn't seem to be a huge concern right now for SETX. The parameters look greater out in western, central and northern TX to have the greatest tornadic threat... as of now.

Models have pushed back on the timing of the front/line of storms. Instead of a late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning event, this looks more like a mid to late morning event on Wednesday exiting our region by early Wednesday afternoon. After this system pushes through a much more cooler front coming from Canada will push through well out into the Gulf by Thursday late morning/early afternoon with highs back into the 60s and lows in the 40s for a few days. A cooler/below average end of March looks to be on the table as Cpv17 posted.


I've attached a tweet Ryan Maue posted earlier today regarding the significance of this storm next week -

[Cpv17]

If we saw this a month ago, we would’ve probably been flirting with the teens across our area. It’s a rare sight to see this.

[jasons2k]

The run was a warm one today. It’s almost muggy out there. Kids are already swimming in the neighbor’s pool.

Yes, it’s heated.

Enjoy the extra hour of daylight in the evenings. Time to prepare the grill.

[DoctorMu]

We had a pocket of dry air last night...but not to last.

El Nino Wet and warm and humid ...is the norm for the next few days. We hit about 83°F today. Not a fan of high dew points. Major sweating unloading garden wall stones and mulch.

However, we get some wether that's more reminiscent of the Carolinas this time of year, milder and drier later in the week. Need some sun and dry air!

[srainhoutx]

Our next upper trough and associated storm system is spinning off the Southern California Coast this morning and is not in a hurry to move East. The overnight guidance has trended slower by about 18 hours regarding the development of a closed low over New Mexico tomorrow afternoon/evening. This slowing trend may not be finished as the upper trough looks to crawl out of the Baja Region tomorrow. The Global models are in fairly good agreement that an unusually strong 973mb low pressure system will be situated over Kansas Wednesday evening. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a Slight Risk for Severe Storms across portions of West and Central Texas tomorrow and a Marginal Risk for Severe Storm for our area on Wednesday. Rainfall amounts look to be in the 1/2 to 1.5 inch with the highest totals near College Station and Livingston. That may change as a slower storm system could change the sensible weather forecast.

Cooler and drier air arrives Thursday and should last into the Weekend.

[srainhoutx]

Monday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

A spring storm system will bring a round of strong to severe thunderstorms across TX late Tuesday-Wednesday.

A very moist warm sector air mass is entrenched over much of SE TX this morning with a stalled surface cool front from near Crockett to Del Rio and just about stationary. Sea fog/fog has developed in the highly moist air mass south of this front with visibilities ranging from 1.75 miles to near .25 of a mile over much of the region.

Warm air advection will be in progress today and there does not appear to be anything in the SW flow aloft to trigger any showers or thunderstorms with the surface frontal boundary located well to our north. Similar on Tuesday as the warm and humid Gulf air mass continues to spread northward and moisture deepens.

A strong storm system, currently off the southern California coast, will begin to move eastward and toward TX late today. Strong warm air advection will develop over much of the state on Tuesday resulting in a fairly large warm sector. Steepening lapse rates with cooling aloft and lift with the approaching upper level trough will likely result in the formation of thunderstorms over SW/W TX late Tuesday which will spread east across much of TX in Wednesday. Models have trended a bit slower with this system and may slow a bit more as the system comes out into the plains with a negative tilt.

As for SE TX, the area will be on the tail end of the stronger lift and the line of storms will likely be moving across the area during the early to mid morning hours on Wednesday when instability is at its lowest. SPC day 2 severe weather outlook has a large portion of C/W TX in a severe weather risk, but this risk becomes more marginal as the storms move eastward early Wednesday. Expect a line of thunderstorms, some strong, and maybe a few severe to move across SE TX Wednesday morning to early afternoon. Given the expected wind energy aloft, a few damaging wind gusts will be possible with this line, but widespread severe weather is currently not expected. The system is also fairly progressive, so rainfall totals of .50 of an inch to 1.5 inches will be possible and not result in any significant flooding threat.

Front stalls over the nearshore Gulf waters and flow remains SW aloft through the end of the week into the weekend. While most of the area should clear out, will need to keep an eye to the SW for any shortwaves that may move up and along the front and result in a round of showers or thunderstorms. Think any activity at this time will be out over the Gulf.

[jasons2k]

That rainfall map shows most of us with .25” -.50” of rain. Not very impressive rainfall totals.

[Cromagnum]

I guess changes are on the way. It's very gross outside.

[jasons2k]

Latest NWS forecast just shows lows in the mid-40’s this weekend into early next week. I can deal with that.

[Cpv17]

That rainfall map shows most of us with .25” -.50” of rain. Not very impressive rainfall totals.

Yep, like I said a few days ago. Rainfall totals don’t appear to be very impressive.

[Katdaddy]

A mild damp morning across SE TX with temps mostly in the mid 60s and fog across many areas. Some locally heavy rain and a few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible tomorrow morning and into the early afternoon. The SPC has a marginal risk area for severe thunderstorms across SE TX tomorrow. W and Central TX have an enhanced risk area for this afternoon and tonight. Cooler weather for the end of the week with some additional sun.

[Kingwood36]

What's the weather looking like for Saturday? Going to the rodeo wondering if I'm going to need to take a jacket

[Belmer]

What's the weather looking like for Saturday? Going to the rodeo wondering if I'm going to need to take a jacket

This weekend is going to one of the best weekends we’ve had all year. Mostly sunny skies are forecasted as the front that will come through on Thursday will push all the humidity and mugginess out into the Gulf as dew points will be low… in the upper 20s/low 30s.
Jacket weather will definitely be advised (unless you don’t get cold easily). High temperatures will be in the low 60s all day dropping to the 50s by evening.

[Cromagnum]

Good. I hope we don't get a drop today or tomorrow. Maybe then I can finally start to tackle my backyard that decided it's a back swamp this year. Salt in the wound was a red eared slider running around in my yard yesterday to remind me how bad it is.

[BlueJay]

Good. I hope we don't get a drop today or tomorrow. Maybe then I can finally start to tackle my backyard that decided it's a back swamp this year. Salt in the wound was a red eared slider running around in my yard yesterday to remind me how bad it is.

Cro - Are you a herpetologist? You seem to know a lot about reptiles and amphibians.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Good. I hope we don't get a drop today or tomorrow. Maybe then I can finally start to tackle my backyard that decided it's a back swamp this year. Salt in the wound was a red eared slider running around in my yard yesterday to remind me how bad it is.

Cro - Are you a herpetologist? You seem to know a lot about reptiles and amphibians.

Speaking of snakes, they are out in force already. I've seen 2 rat snakes and a water snake on my property.

I'm a part of a Snake Thread on the Outdoors board of TexAgs.com and they have herpetologists on there who will identify anything and remove.

[jasons2k]

It’s been a few weeks since I’ve had a decent rain and it’s starting to dry out. We could actually use a little rain up here. If anything, to wash away this yellow film on everything.

[Cromagnum]

Good. I hope we don't get a drop today or tomorrow. Maybe then I can finally start to tackle my backyard that decided it's a back swamp this year. Salt in the wound was a red eared slider running around in my yard yesterday to remind me how bad it is.

Cro - Are you a herpetologist? You seem to know a lot about reptiles and amphibians.

Chemist

[BlueJay]

Good to know this Cro and MontgomeryCoWx. Lots of talented people on this board!

I agree with jasons - the pollen needs to be washed away!

[jasons2k]

The squall line is really, really far west - west of the Pecos. That’s pretty far out there. I don’t have time to extrapolate timing but just based on location I would expect things to move through a bit slower/later than forecast. That may give us a better shot for thunderstorms tomorrow with better timing (later in the day).

The lowest temp the NWS has me after the front is 45. Not bad at all - looks to be a beautiful weekend ahead.