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biggerbyte wrote:Hmmm! Rita Redux

I thought you gave no credence to modeling so far out?

The 18z GFS is rolling now and is looking further south on the onset than previous runs. Looking more like the 12z Euro so far. Will be interesting.

Edit update: Meh, nevermind. Looks to make Fla landfall near southern tip around 78 hrs. Almost further east than 12z run.

Portastorm wrote:The 18z GFS is rolling now and is looking further south on the onset than previous runs. Looking more like the 12z Euro so far. Will be interesting.

Actually ends up a tad further N through hr 78 impacting S Fla before heading just off Naples.

I was thinking it might just give us one crazy last run before the 0z runs with the G-IV data is ingested but for the most part has remained consistent.

Time to narrow it down some more. SE Texas to just the western tip of the Florida Panhandle. As mentioned, things change daily. As of today, an impact in SE Texas or East Texas is possible. Way to early still to say what the final outcome is likely to be.

Scott747 wrote:

biggerbyte wrote:Hmmm! Rita Redux

I thought you gave no credence to modeling so far out?

LOL! I don't. What you get is a simple comment on what the Euro is showing. Never said I bought into it.
I hope that helps you to understand, Scott. Tootles!

BB

biggerbyte wrote:

Scott747 wrote:

biggerbyte wrote:Hmmm! Rita Redux

I thought you gave no credence to modeling so far out?

LOL! I don't. What you get is a simple comment on what the Euro is showing. Never said I bought into it.
I hope that helps you to understand, Scott. Tootles!

BB

Great to hear! We don't won't those models to in any way influence your forecast. Thanks for the update!

So much for that crazy last run of the 18Z GFS...

On the other hand I love me some modeling to try and gauge mid and longer range pattern changes along with chase planning potential intercept points.

While the 18z GFS doesn't have the data from the G-IV mission it has switched over to what the Euro is hinting at and definitely has raised an eyebrow to potentially longer term impacts to our neck of the woods.

Oddly enough, the 18z GFS ended up a lot more west than the 12z run. Further north/east early on and then further west in the land. Landfall looks to be in Mississippi.

Tonight's 0z runs are gonna be huge!

srainhoutx wrote:So much for that crazy last run of the 18Z GFS...

Extended out it joins the Euro.

You know, one thing about today's trends which strike me. East Texas may very well be dealing with an inland rain/wind threat from this tropical cyclone even if it does make landfall well east of the Lone Star State.

Portastorm wrote:Oddly enough, the 18z GFS ended up a lot more west than the 12z run. Further north/east early on and then further west in the land. Landfall looks to be in Mississippi.

Tonight's 0z runs are gonna be huge!

Bring the popcorn out and get ready

Alvin Girl wrote:"I know it's a total different storm - but I'm having flash backs from Ike and waking up that Wednesday morning to see a bullseye over Freeport! Thankfully, we were prepared that year (pre-cut plywood and all). If it counts for anything, my guess is a TX/LA boarder hit.....but I have absolutely no basis on that other than "my gut" feeling. Wouldn't be surprised to see our area in the western part of that cone in a few days....for now its wait and see. And a great time to check your kits everyone.

We recut all our boards earlier this year. They were warped and messed up. Just did a new thingie in the brick that should make putting the boards up eaiser than using the hurricane clips. I am hoping we don't have to use them, but we are ready if we do. We boarded up for Rita, which wasn't necessary, boarded up for Ike which was. Will board up again if any hint of trouble.

Hope Issac doesn't hit LA either as MIL was already freaking out this morning.

Thanks to all the weather folks here that keep us informed! I enjoy reading and following what is going on, giving people the real scoop.

Still looks like the gfs is dealing with convective feedback. It continues to spawn multiple vort max's in the 850mb analysis short range. While land interaction could cause this it does look a little suspicious, especially since most convection has been south of the center. Isaac is still having organization issues but does look a little more organized. Still isn't vertically stacked though. Planes were finding the 700mb center south of the LLC.

Depending on a few factors, Isaac could even go poof at some point before entering the Gulf.

biggerbyte wrote:Depending on a few factors, Isaac could even go poof at some point before entering the Gulf.

What factors did you have in mind BB?

Andrew wrote:Still looks like the gfs is dealing with convective feedback. It continues to spawn multiple vort max's in the 850mb analysis short range. While land interaction could cause this it does look a little suspicious, especially since most convection has been south of the center. Isaac is still having organization issues but does look a little more organized. Still isn't vertically stacked though. Planes were finding the 700mb center south of the LLC.

There hasn't been a definitive center for over 24 hrs and it times it was probably barely a TD. AF Recon has had to do some strange flight patterns looking for one. It really isn't that much more organized then yesterday though winds are beginning to respond. Should be just a matter of time but many of us have been saying that for almost two days now.

Scott747 wrote:

Andrew wrote:Still looks like the gfs is dealing with convective feedback. It continues to spawn multiple vort max's in the 850mb analysis short range. While land interaction could cause this it does look a little suspicious, especially since most convection has been south of the center. Isaac is still having organization issues but does look a little more organized. Still isn't vertically stacked though. Planes were finding the 700mb center south of the LLC.

There hasn't been a definitive center for over 24 hrs and it times it was probably barely a TD. AF Recon has had to do some strange flight patterns looking for one. It really isn't that much more organized then yesterday though winds are beginning to respond. Should be just a matter of time but many of us have been saying that for almost two days now.

Still not confident on that wnw movement. MIMIC still shows a relatively west movement (hasn't updated lately though). Where a definitive center forms will be telling for how strong Isaac can get before land interaction. It would almost be better for the US if Isaac strengthened a lot before hitting the islands so it could have a complete collapse of the core. That would take longer to rebuild in my opinion.

How much land interaction, and how strong he is before getting there. Not saying that is going to happen, but Isaac isn't exactly at his best ATM.

Andrew wrote:

Scott747 wrote:

Andrew wrote:Still looks like the gfs is dealing with convective feedback. It continues to spawn multiple vort max's in the 850mb analysis short range. While land interaction could cause this it does look a little suspicious, especially since most convection has been south of the center. Isaac is still having organization issues but does look a little more organized. Still isn't vertically stacked though. Planes were finding the 700mb center south of the LLC.

There hasn't been a definitive center for over 24 hrs and it times it was probably barely a TD. AF Recon has had to do some strange flight patterns looking for one. It really isn't that much more organized then yesterday though winds are beginning to respond. Should be just a matter of time but many of us have been saying that for almost two days now.

Still not confident on that wnw movement. MIMIC still shows a relatively west movement (hasn't updated lately though). Where a definitive center forms will be telling for how strong Isaac can get before land interaction. It would almost be better for the US if Isaac strengthened a lot before hitting the islands so it could have a complete collapse of the core. That would take longer to rebuild in my opinion.

Actually the guidance has been rather accurate in suggesting development really would not occur until passing Hispainola/Cuba. While it may not be the impressive looking tropical system that is vertically stacked and rapid strengthening, Isaac is behaving as many had expected at this point in its life cycle.