January 2025

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Cpv17
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Brazoriatx979 wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 12:34 pm hell id be happy with 1" lol
We’ll probably have to wait till Monday till we can start figuring out which locations will be more favorable than others.
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DoctorMu
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Agreement across Euro, GFS, CMC. Be prepared.
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DoctorMu
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 8:29 am Wxman57 is all in.

“I'm in Houston. Snow likely up there starting Monday evening and ending Tuesday evening. Possible 3-5 inches snow on Tuesday. Temperatures below freezing Sunday afternoon to noon Monday then from Monday evening to Wednesday afternoon. Lowest temperature on Wednesday morning - mid teens.“
Perfect temp range for a bombout. Not too cold, not too warm.
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DoctorMu
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tireman4 wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 9:27 am Just as I figured, they are starting line up now
That limits the 700 mb Pacafic warm tongue
dac
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Thoughts on how likely flights will be cancelled out of IAH on Tuesday? I have a noon flight and already got the travel waiver notice from United.
Cpv17
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12z EPS looks solid!!
Stratton20
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dac tuesday will be a complete mess, id expect probably a-lot of flight delays or cancellations during the day on tuesday
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DoctorMu
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 10:17 am
Brazoriatx979 wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 10:14 am hopefully the euro will be better lol its always a roller coaster with this stuff. Its probably doing the same thing it did the other day. it will correct itself.
Nothing changed really with that setup.

12z GFS didn’t suck, you just didn’t like the output map based on location. It’s a good setup and will over perform in spots.
Nothing really has changed in days. With the low moving straight across, instead of dipping for a bath near Cabo, there's no mid level warm tongue.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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DoctorMu wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 1:01 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 8:29 am Wxman57 is all in.

“I'm in Houston. Snow likely up there starting Monday evening and ending Tuesday evening. Possible 3-5 inches snow on Tuesday. Temperatures below freezing Sunday afternoon to noon Monday then from Monday evening to Wednesday afternoon. Lowest temperature on Wednesday morning - mid teens.“
Perfect temp range for a bombout. Not too cold, not too warm.
The Albedo Libido for the Cold Miser is rising
Team #NeverSummer
Stratton20
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Beautiful just Beautiful!!
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DoctorMu
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 11:21 am
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 11:15 am NAM 6-10 degrees colder in our viewing area at 00z Tuesday
My guess is everything would be snow.
High density and deep column. Something in common with Christmas Eve 2004.
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DoctorMu
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Cpv17 wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 11:28 am
Brazoriatx979 wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 11:22 am
Cpv17 wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 11:19 am

How would this affect precip though?
probably freeze the entire column and have everything as snow...but i could be wrong
That’s what I was thinking too, but in Feb 21 I got sleet at 20°. Never saw snow.
Mid level warm nose. Per the models, that's allegedly happening this time...fingers crossed.

A primary snow even with temps in the 20s and teens instead of 5°F like 2021 in CLL and lack of ice on power lines should reduce the chance of power outages.
Cpv17
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Seems like this upcoming event has a much higher ceiling than others we’ve had.
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DoctorMu
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Pas_Bon wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 11:33 am
Cpv17 wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 11:19 am
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 11:15 am NAM 6-10 degrees colder in our viewing area at 00z Tuesday
How would this affect precip though?
Snow instead of ice/sleet/frozen rain, which would be a Godsend for the power grid

Generally, the more snow, the better the transmission lines will hold up
The snow actually provides insulation as well. All snow, all the time is the hope.
dac
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Stratton20 wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 1:10 pm dac tuesday will be a complete mess, id expect probably a-lot of flight delays or cancellations during the day on tuesday

I assumed as much ugh... I don't comment often but I follow you all and trust your guidance!! Long time lurker, rare poster, but a super fan of this forum!
Brazoriatx979
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dac wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 1:25 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 1:10 pm dac tuesday will be a complete mess, id expect probably a-lot of flight delays or cancellations during the day on tuesday

I assumed as much ugh... I don't comment often but I follow you all and trust your guidance!! Long time lurker, rare poster, but a super fan of this forum!
Wish more people would sign up and engage with us! makes it more fun!
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DoctorMu
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Bring it.
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DoctorMu
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GEFS
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snowman65
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looking beautiful for us.. hold the line!!
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djmike
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snowman65 wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 1:32 pm looking beautiful for us.. hold the line!!
Seems Beaumont has better odds than anyone right now. Wow!
Mike
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(IH-10 & College Street)
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