tireman4 wrote:I hope it is cool and dry for the Olympic Trials Marathon January 14, 2012. It will be a great day for Houston and I will be watching it. It will not be shown live ( At least not that I have seen), but on tape delay on NBC at 2 pm later in the day.
I didn't realize that the Olympic trials were going to be held here the day before the Houston marathon. Too bad it's looking cold that morning, as once again you won't find me on my bike at the start/finish line. No way I'm biking the 15 miles to the start with temps in the 30s.
Don't be a wuss... I used to run 4 miles in 15 degree weather when I lived in Columbus, Ohio.
Yeah and the kicker is that there is NO LIVE COVERAGE. In the 2008 trials in New York (men) and Boston (women), Universal had the women and NBC had the men. This is a major event and nothing but tape delay. Sad. Very sad. How far down has track and field gone down? Sigh.
MontgomeryCoWx wrote:any chance it could bring us in line with the freezing mark during precip?
Instability could be enough to increase elevated storms and small hail if the southern track is correct. I will add a stray sleet pellet or two could be possible as the cold core U/L passes if it is close enough to our area. We will see...
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The 00Z GFS suggests the U/L will pass over the area mid day Monday. 6-12 hours earlier and things could get interesting as 'colder air' filters in. I would not be surprised to see some chatter from the SPC next next few days.
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Check out the latest CMC. It is a LOT more progressive with the ULL but also allows for more cold air advection to come down with it and that is creating a cold pocket when it tracks through. A much different run compared to the 12z and tells me that there are still a lot of uncertainties with this next system. With the long range the CMC continues to indicate a setup for colder weather.
The SPC is thinking there may be a chance of storms Monday as the upper low treks across TX. We'll need to monitor over the next couple of days to see if severe chances increase with this potent upper level disturbance and its journey across our area...
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 AM CST THU JAN 05 2012
VALID 081200Z - 131200Z
...DISCUSSION...
00Z ECMWF/GEFS/UKMET SUGGEST THAT SPLIT UPPER FLOW WITH A GENERAL
TENDENCY FOR LONGWAVE TROUGHING EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE DAY 4-8 PERIOD. FOCUS WILL BE ON EARLY NEXT WEEK
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH AS IT
GRADUALLY EMERGES FROM THE SOUTHWEST STATES. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
VARIABILITY REGARDING THIS SYSTEM IS LESSER THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS...ALTHOUGH SOME VARIABILITY INHERENTLY REMAINS REGARDING THE
STRENGTH/TIMING/LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM. WHAT CURRENTLY SEEMS
PROBABLE IS THAT TSTM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE/GENERALLY DEVELOP
EASTWARD EACH DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CONUS THROUGH
DAYS 5-7 MONDAY-WEDNESDAY. GIVEN ACCESS TO AN
INCREASINGLY/RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SOME SEVERE THREAT MIGHT BE
POSSIBLE BY AROUND DAY 5/MONDAY ACROSS AREAS SUCH AS SOUTH TX
/MAINLY PER THE ECMWF/ AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH/COLD FRONT. SUBSEQUENTLY...AS THE UPPER SYSTEM SPREADS
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...WHAT MAY ULTIMATELY BE A MORE PROBABLE SEVERE
THREAT MAY EXIST ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION/PERHAPS MID-SOUTH ON
DAY 6/TUESDAY...AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES/CAROLINAS ON DAY
7/WEDNESDAY.
WHILE AT LEAST SOME SEVERE THREAT SEEMS POSSIBLE DAY 5/MONDAY AND
MORE SO INTO DAYS 6/7 TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED...SPECIFIC PREDICTABILITY/CONFIDENCE IN THIS TIME FRAME
REMAINS MODEST. AS SUCH...NO 30 PERCENT EQUIVALENT SEVERE RISK AREAS
ARE CURRENTLY DELINEATED. SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS WILL BETTER BE ABLE TO
ASCERTAIN THE MAGNITUDE/EXTENT OF ANY SEVERE RISK DURING THIS
PERIOD.
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A quick perusal to this amateur eye of the 0z operational runs (GFS, Euro, CMC, UKMet) didn't show any polar air/winter storms (outside of some of the models suggesting the upper-level low later this weekend could cause some west/north Texas excitement) in the next 6-10 days for Texas. Interesting.
The HPC morning update suggests a very wet Monday into Tuesday for Eastern Texas and Louisiana...
MODELS HAVE HAD TROUBLE FORECASTING HOW QUICKLY THE CLOSED LOW
EXITS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN ON
THE SLOWER SIDE WHILE THE GFS HAS GENERALLY BEEN QUICKER.
HOWEVER... OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS THERE HAS BEEN A GREATER
TREND IN THE ECMWF FOR A QUICKER PROGRESSION COMPARED TO A SLOWER
TREND IN THE GFS... WITH A NOTICEABLE QUICKER TREND IN THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN AS WELL. THE 00Z/05 OPERATIONAL RUNS AND ENSEMBLES
GENERALLY FAVOR A QUICKER PACE THAN THE 00Z ECMWF... THOUGH THE
SPREAD IS STILL BROAD. FOLLOWED A 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BLEND
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AS THEIR BLEND CORRELATED WELL WITH THE
WELL-PERFORMING 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL EXISTS OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A DECENT INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE. BY THU/D7... AS THE
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW HEADS UP I-81... THE EASTERN TROUGH MAY BE
REINFORCED AS CANADIAN ENERGY DIVES DOWN THROUGH MINNESOTA.
OTHERWISE... TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER MILD FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE CONUS.
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Yes, it does. No indication of anything but rain by the 12Z GFS. The rain ends Monday evening, long before the cool pocket aloft moves across our area. Looks like the rain may begin Sunday afternoon.
The next feature we'll need to watch is the short wave trough diving S through the Intermountain West and Plains mid next week. There have been some indications of a merging of the northern stream and a disturbance in the southern stream combining to make for a very strong push of colder air and light wintry mischief across the S Plains. We will see...
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