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While Isaac is still spinning and causing hardship for our neighbors to the E, I for one will be glad to get back to a 'more normal' routine and a full night sleep without texts waking me up with the latest updates. Overall, we have a lot to be proud of as a local community. This was by far the biggest weather event since we received our new platform and certainly since Ike in to 2008. Good job gang and a special thanks to our Pro Mets that offered their thoughts.

Well, then I watch this: http://weatherspark.com/#!maps;a=USA/LA/New_Orleans and he's definitely heading north.

18z Nam 24hr

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
400 PM CDT WED AUG 29 2012

...ISAAC PRODUCING LIFE-THREATENING HAZARDS FROM STORM SURGE AND
INLAND FLOODING AS IT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 91.1W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM S OF BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

I am just asking for a bit of guidance and education here, I was curious if Isaac is moving NW, then he shouldn't get back out into the Gulf, right? I mean seriously Louisiana has had enough!!!!! I know the models are still suggesting a coastal rider, but if he is moving NW, shouldn't get be moving more inland than he is right now? Why would the models still be suggesting a coastal rider? I guess I am just lost. I feel so bad for our neighbors in Louisiana! The videos I have seen so far, are heart wrenching!!

rnmm wrote:I am just asking for a bit of guidance and education here, I was curious if Isaac is moving NW, then he shouldn't get back out into the Gulf, right? I mean seriously Louisiana has had enough!!!!! I know the models are still suggesting a coastal rider, but if he is moving NW, shouldn't get be moving more inland than he is right now? Why would the models still be suggesting a coastal rider? I guess I am just lost. I feel so bad for our neighbors in Louisiana! The videos I have seen so far, are heart wrenching!!

Only one model (the NAM) suggests a 'Coastal Rider' now. The HPC has stated that there were issues with that one model, so we should disregard it, rnmm. Hope that helps. Also, we have to remember that Isaac is passing over the largest swamp in the US, the Atchafalaya Basin as well.

I so agree Steve and djmike. Still a chance we may get a few showers and some gusts of wind overnight and tomorrow however its time to switch off hurricane mode, get rest, and back to a normal routine. The last several days have been exhausting watching continuos mode runs, satellite images, analyzing AFDs, NHC forecasts/discussions, recon data, reading and studying numerous posts on S2K and CH11 forums. I feel for our friends E of TX this evening.

Is this thing moving East?

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 35A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
700 PM CDT WED AUG 29 2012

...SLOW-MOVING ISAAC DUMPING HEAVY RAINS AND STILL PRODUCING
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 91.1W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM S OF BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...90 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAMERON LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER

I also second what Steve posted "Good job gang and a special thanks to our Pro Mets that offered their thoughts." Yes we have an excellent board with great information and discussions. Again, well done everyone.

jasons wrote:This was posted on another forum, but it sums-up my opinion nicely:

At 11pm EDT the storm was 75 miles SE of Houma, LA. Now, 13 hours later the storm is directly over Houma. The NHC listed movement is to the NW at 6mph, which is pretty much exactly what the storm has done the last 12 hours. At that 11pm advisory the listed speed was NW at 8mph, which in hindsight was too fast but missing by 2mph doesn't seem like a bad forecast. I think it is unreasonable to expect them to try and account for every wobble and stall in their movement forecasts.

Let's cut the NHC a little slack. Hindsight is always 20/20 but in the big picture, they have been very close with Isaac. Go back and reference some of the previous forecast tracks and look where Isaac is now. Keep in mind some wanted to swing Issac far left or right (mostly left on this board) based on the modelling windshield wiping but to their credit the NHC held firm.

Ah, and now the post mortems begin.

I think much of what you wrote Jason is true but I want to point out that 72 hours prior to landfall, NHC said Isaac would hit the Florida panhandle. Their landfall point was a little more than 150 miles east of where Isaac actually ended up making landfall. Is that an acceptable margin? I don't know. I guess it depends on what we are willing to accept from our government-funded tropical cyclone forecasters. Personally, I'm ok with that margin because I think NHC consistently does a great job and has to deal with a lot of crud (politics, gripey public, etc) beyond the forecasting. Some may not be.

At 48 hours prior to landfall NHC had only nudged the track 10-20 miles west and were still more than 100 miles off. It was about 36 hours from landfall when they moved their projected landfall point to where Isaac actually came in.

Last night's wobblefest ended up a moot point, IMO, because the overall storm motion resumed after some brief stalls. Sure, Isaac has moved more slowly and a little more erratically than NHC suggested in their forecasts yesterday ... but overall, yes, they nailed the bigger picture at about 36 hours out and stayed the course, didn't bite on the GFS/NAM scenario, and they were right.

Now, there is one thing I have not mentioned yet which I think brings this all into perspective. The cone. As NHC always tells us, don't pay all your attention to the landfall point but pay attention to the cone. If you're in the cone, you're in the potential danger zone. As senior forecaster Jack Beven wrote in one of his advisories on Saturday: "IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF ISAAC DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST AND THE FACT THAT ISAAC HAS A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT."

So, all in all, I give them a good grade. You know, if you go back and look at the archives, you'll see that at the 10 pm advisory on Thursday, Aug. 23rd, NHC had New Orleans in the 5-day cone. The first time NOLA was in the 3-day cone was Sunday morning's advisory ... so roughly about 60 hours of notice. It is just interesting to me to go back and look at this stuff.

djmike wrote:

Andrew wrote:

djmike wrote:I give up on the "is it going west now" questioning.....I think everyone else has too. Very quiet in here now....

I for one (along with many of you) am extremely tired and will be glad for a break after this.

I was JUST sitting here at work thinking about how I get to go home and watch TV and my shows finally. ....ANNND like many of you here, GO TO BED ON TIME!!! (Maybe early..lol) No but, seriously...THIS WAS A FUN RIDE! I'll say that. Its sooo fun and exciting to go through ALL the diff emotions one storm can make us do...lol. Love hearing everyones expertise and opinions! I know Issacs still out there and I do pray for their safety, but as far as Texas/Houston goes......ON TO THE NEXT!!! (Just not tooo soon..) OH, AND IM ACTUALLY GETTING WORK DONE TOO...AT WORK! lolol

Fun and bumpy ride! At times, it was like Mr. Toad's wild ride. It saddened me to see the devastation on the news. Just shows us we must always be prepared and cautious.

Looks like the highest wind gust reported was 113mph at Belle Chase at 104am.

reverse back into the gulf

Plaquemines Parish Levee on the west bank (west side of the river) between the Gulf and the federal MS River Levee is nearly being overtopped by constant SSW winds. 3000 residents have been ordered to evacuate. Overtopping will result in a rapid rise in water levels to near or above the rooftops of homes trapping residents on their roofs or in attics. East Bank levee on the east side of the river which was severely overtopped this morning will be breached by local and COE officials to relieve pressure on the levee. 65 residents were rescued today in this area from their rooftops or attics.

Attention will now shift away from the coastal surge and win to the potential for life threatening inland fresh water flooding. The continue slow motion and good banding on the east side of the system along with core rains support a very high flash flood threat with additional rainfall of 10-15 inches on top of the 5-10 inches that has already fallen.

i notice a small rotation south of cuba?

Isaac's rising water forces more people from homes
http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/story?secti ... id=8791651

St. John the Baptist Parish is getting flooded by Isaac.

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi

Heard many tidal gages on LA coast got within foot or two of record. How does a cat one challenge cat 3 and 4s. Answer it wasnt a cat 1

http://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi

Relatives live in St John parish in La Place. Horrible Situation. They said the water rose very fast and pretty much anything in LaPlace is under water. Everyone at the church shelter was being taken to Alexandria. Water was still rising....

All this nw movement. seattle prepare