Tropical Depression Isaac:
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Portastorm
- Posts: 800
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The 10 pm NHC advisory indicates northwest movement still at 8 mph for Isaac. You can call it a wobble or whatever you want but recon clearly confirmed that this thing moved southwest for about 15 miles and the center is actually back out in the Gulf. NHC may be selling but I ain't buying. Sorry.
Not bashing them Portastorm but I'm not buying into their sales pitch either - it did go WSW and get back over water - has it moved north again and back over land?Portastorm wrote:The 10 pm NHC advisory indicates northwest movement still at 8 mph for Isaac. You can call it a wobble or whatever you want but recon clearly confirmed that this thing moved southwest for about 15 miles and the center is actually back out in the Gulf. NHC may be selling but I ain't buying. Sorry.
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biggerbyte
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Portastorm wrote:The 10 pm NHC advisory indicates northwest movement still at 8 mph for Isaac. You can call it a wobble or whatever you want but recon clearly confirmed that this thing moved southwest for about 15 miles and the center is actually back out in the Gulf. NHC may be selling but I ain't buying. Sorry.
Radar and Sat. views do not lie. Wnw, west, even wsw, but is has NOT been moving nw.
Last edited by biggerbyte on Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Did they extend the TS Warning westward under Lake Charles to the border? It was a watch!!
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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Portastorm
- Posts: 800
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- Location: Southwest Austin/Oak Hill, TX
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Nor am I bashing them ... I greatly respect the men and women who work at the NHC. But facts are facts. I'm truly at a loss to understand how they classify that movement as "northwest at 8 mph." I guess I have a lot to learn.ticka1 wrote:Not bashing them Portastorm but I'm not buying into their sales pitch either - it did go WSW and get back over water - has it moved north again and back over land?Portastorm wrote:The 10 pm NHC advisory indicates northwest movement still at 8 mph for Isaac. You can call it a wobble or whatever you want but recon clearly confirmed that this thing moved southwest for about 15 miles and the center is actually back out in the Gulf. NHC may be selling but I ain't buying. Sorry.
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cristina99
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please someone tell me what this means! 
I may end up with egg on my face,but i'm buying either.
They DID extend the warning westward to the border! LC was in a watch before the 10pm! Watch still remains to High Is land though...Trend? Maybe....
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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Andrew
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000
WTNT34 KNHC 290252
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1000 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012
...ISAAC PRODUCING A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST...FLOODING FROM RAINFALL TO FOLLOW...
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 89.7W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA TO SABINE
PASS TEXAS HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...
INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE
MAUREPAS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA
* MORGAN CITY TO SABINE PASS TEXAS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO JUST WEST OF SABINE PASS
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS
LOCATED BY NOAA DOPPLER RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE
89.7 WEST. ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13
KM/H. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
HURRICANE ISAAC WILL CONTINUE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF LOUISIANA TONIGHT...AND MOVE FARTHER INLAND OVER
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ISAAC IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
TONIGHT. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THAT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND
ALABAMA. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 56 MPH WITH A GUST TO 69 MPH WAS
OBSERVED WITHIN THE PAST HOUR AT A NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE SITE AT
SHELL BEACH LOUISIANA. A WIND GUST TO 67 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED
AT LAKEFRONT AIRPORT ON THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN NEAR
NEW ORLEANS.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 968 MB...28.59 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
* MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...6 TO 12 FT
* ALABAMA...4 TO 8 FT
* SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...3 TO 6 FT
* FLORIDA PANHANDLE...3 TO 6 FT
* APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
* REMAINDER OF FLORIDA WEST COAST...1 TO 3 FT
THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WINDS. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
A STORM SURGE OF 10.3 FEET WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT A NATIONAL
OCEAN SERVICE TIDE GAUGE AT SHELL BEACH LOUISIANA. A STORM SURGE
OF 6.7 FEET WAS OBSERVED AT A NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE TIDE GAUGE IN
WAVELAND MISSISSIPPI.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA OVERNIGHT...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ONSHORE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.
WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL. AT ABOUT THE
30TH STORY...WINDS WOULD LIKELY BE ONE SAFFIR-SIMPSON CATEGORY
STRONGER THAN AT THE SURFACE.
RAINFALL...ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
7 TO 14 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20
INCHES...OVER MUCH OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...AND THE EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THESE RAINS
COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT LOWLAND FLOODING.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION AND PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES...1200 AM CDT AND 200 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
WTNT34 KNHC 290252
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1000 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012
...ISAAC PRODUCING A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST...FLOODING FROM RAINFALL TO FOLLOW...
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 89.7W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA TO SABINE
PASS TEXAS HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...
INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE
MAUREPAS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA
* MORGAN CITY TO SABINE PASS TEXAS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO JUST WEST OF SABINE PASS
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS
LOCATED BY NOAA DOPPLER RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE
89.7 WEST. ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13
KM/H. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
HURRICANE ISAAC WILL CONTINUE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF LOUISIANA TONIGHT...AND MOVE FARTHER INLAND OVER
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ISAAC IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
TONIGHT. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THAT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND
ALABAMA. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 56 MPH WITH A GUST TO 69 MPH WAS
OBSERVED WITHIN THE PAST HOUR AT A NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE SITE AT
SHELL BEACH LOUISIANA. A WIND GUST TO 67 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED
AT LAKEFRONT AIRPORT ON THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN NEAR
NEW ORLEANS.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 968 MB...28.59 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
* MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...6 TO 12 FT
* ALABAMA...4 TO 8 FT
* SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...3 TO 6 FT
* FLORIDA PANHANDLE...3 TO 6 FT
* APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
* REMAINDER OF FLORIDA WEST COAST...1 TO 3 FT
THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WINDS. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
A STORM SURGE OF 10.3 FEET WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT A NATIONAL
OCEAN SERVICE TIDE GAUGE AT SHELL BEACH LOUISIANA. A STORM SURGE
OF 6.7 FEET WAS OBSERVED AT A NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE TIDE GAUGE IN
WAVELAND MISSISSIPPI.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA OVERNIGHT...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ONSHORE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.
WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL. AT ABOUT THE
30TH STORY...WINDS WOULD LIKELY BE ONE SAFFIR-SIMPSON CATEGORY
STRONGER THAN AT THE SURFACE.
RAINFALL...ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
7 TO 14 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20
INCHES...OVER MUCH OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...AND THE EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THESE RAINS
COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT LOWLAND FLOODING.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION AND PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES...1200 AM CDT AND 200 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
For Your Infinite Source For All Things Weather Visit Our Facebook
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cristina99
- Posts: 125
- Joined: Fri Jan 21, 2011 2:33 pm
- Location: The Woodlands / Spring / Conroe
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okay, the reporters in Lake Ponchetrain (sp) say it is getting ready to come ashore -- again! I am sooo confused! 
Yes west to my untrained eye......i don't see north that is for sure.
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srainhoutx
- Site Admin
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For those interested, Doc is about to offer some analysis.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
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cristina99
- Posts: 125
- Joined: Fri Jan 21, 2011 2:33 pm
- Location: The Woodlands / Spring / Conroe
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ticka1 wrote:Yes west to my untrained eye......i don't see north that is for sure.
I see west -- but mine are even more untrained. Maybe someone can offer some input.
....and FWIW, the track was moved westward a hair! Compare it to the 8pm!
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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cristina99
- Posts: 125
- Joined: Fri Jan 21, 2011 2:33 pm
- Location: The Woodlands / Spring / Conroe
- Contact:
srainhoutx wrote:For those interested, Doc is about to offer some analysis.
Doc just offered his opinion and said it wasn't moving NNW....he thinks it will hug the coast.
Winds are picking up just a bit in Pearland.
Hmmm intersting Neil.
Hmmm intersting Neil.
He seemed to say it with such confidence too. I am inclined to agree with him. Hats off Dr. Neil. You seem to know what a storm thinks.cristina99 wrote:srainhoutx wrote:For those interested, Doc is about to offer some analysis.
Doc just offered his opinion and said it wasn't moving NNW....he thinks it will hug the coast.
Ready for severe weather season!!
cristina99 wrote:srainhoutx wrote:For those interested, Doc is about to offer some analysis.
Doc just offered his opinion and said it wasn't moving NNW....he thinks it will hug the coast.
Guys and gals - last night Doc told us not to write this one off - I think this man knows what he is talking about - his years of wisdom and experience are trumping over any model that is being run out there. He says it will hug the coast - I think that is what it is going to do.
What kind of weather will we get if it hugs the coast? Severe?