July 2025

[tireman4]

403
FXUS64 KHGX 081807
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
107 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 107 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

- Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected
each day through the weekend, and even into early next week
though we should see a downward trend in storm coverage by that
point.

- Isolated strong thunderstorms will lead to gusty winds and localized
downpours. If more than one of these storms moves over the same
area, or happens to fall over an area of poor drainage, then
minor street flooding/ponding will be possible.

- Near seasonal temperatures will persist, but seasonal this time
of year is still hot. Make sure to take breaks if working
outside and stay hydrated.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 107 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Numerous showers and storms are already strewn across Southeast
Texas early this afternoon, and for the next several
days...probably through at least this weekend...today makes a
pretty good template for the forecast. Look for convection to
follow the typical diurnal pattern - offshore pre-dawn, making
its way to the immediate coast in the morning, and spreading
inland through the afternoon, generally increasing in intensity
until the sun goes down enough that everything fades away for a
quiet end to the evening. Temperatures will start from a high
floor thanks to typically humid conditions in the 70s and lower
80s, rising to highs in the low to mid 90s. Just how high you get
depends on if, when, and how strong any storms you see during the
day end up being.

Today`s activity is very clearly getting a boost from an upper
trough making its way in from across the Gulf. Though that trough
will fade out, it`s made a clear weakness in the subtropical ridge
over us, and a parade of troughs in the northern stream will take
advantage. Expect them to dig a little deeper into this weakness
in the subtropical ridge, helping it persist into and likely
through the weekend, with the scattered to numerous storms to show
for it.

This high confidence scenario leads me right into my primary break
from the deterministic NBM output, which presents a (rather
unrealistic) scenario in which we have high rain chances daily,
but also hotter than typical temperatures; even high enough that
taken verbatim, might have me worrying about the heat advisory
threshold. But obviously, cloud cover and convective activity are
going to be a downward pressure on temperatures, so I find it very
unlikely that we see both. For instance, at 1 pm, temperatures
range from the upper 80s all the way down into the upper 70s! This
is definitely not a "Porque no los dos?" situation. And since the
current presence of the upper trough and high confidence in the
stream of northern stream troughs is here, I`m opting to stick
with the higher PoPs.

I`ve largely replaced NBM highs with the 50th percentile/median
NBM numbers, which puts me much closer to seasonal averages and
pulls us back from being unrealistically close to a heat advisory.
Of course, seasonable in SE Texas is still potentially dangerous
for folks sensitive to heat, and for those who are required to
exert themselves strenuously outdoors away from shade. Highs in
the lower 90s and a humid environment will still push the heat
index above 100, and wet bulb globe temperatures into the high
risk range. Fortunately, we should at least have plenty of winners
in the "afternoon rain lottery", and a passing shower will help
make things more comfortable...at least until the sun comes back.

And while we`re on notes of caution, those afternoon storms need
one as well. Storms, by definition, carry lightning and means you
want to be inside of well-constructed shelter to avoid that
threat. But also, "seasonable" storms can also cause localized
issues with gusty winds and heavy rain. Overall, each day`s
activity will be manageable, but the strongest storms of the day
could cause isolated problems if they occur in the wrong spot.



&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 107 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Main focus of this cycle is to handle timing and impacts of
scattered to numerous afternoon storms. Primary change so far is
to slide things up to accommodate slightly earlier start to
activity, and will continue to keep TAFs in line with actual
storms as the afternoon drags on. Also introduced PROB30s for
tomorrow`s development in the IAH extended.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 107 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue through the end of
the week. Though more numerous than usual for the next few days,
they should follow the typical daily pattern of beginning over the
Gulf waters in the pre-dawn hours, then gradually shifting towards
the immediate coast later in the morning and farther inland
through the afternoon. Light to moderate winds and low seas are
expected through Wednesday. Occasionally higher gusts up to 15 to
20 knots are possible. Winds and seas may increase towards the end
of the week. Locally higher winds and seas possible in the
vicinity of any thunderstorm that develops over the bays and Gulf
waters this week.

At the shore, the persistent light to moderate onshore flow will
modestly boost tidal levels and risk of rip currents for the next
couple of days. Beyond that, the expectation for somewhat higher
winds may boost concern about rip current - but, for now,
Galveston Beach Patrol reports they are flying yellow flags.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 74 91 75 93 / 30 30 10 20
Houston (IAH) 76 92 77 94 / 20 60 10 50
Galveston (GLS) 82 90 81 90 / 20 40 20 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchs
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Luchs

[DoctorMu]

No Death Ridge on the models/Ensembles for the next 14 day. GFS leans to a DR after that...but GFS and 14 day forecast = lol. the Euro and Euro AI are leaning rainier than the rest of the models.

Your Zen Moment: EURO-AI has a FROPA easing into SETX on July 18.

[DoctorMu]

I'll allow this.

[jasons2k]

In the dome today.

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu one thing ive noticed in the models this summer, is that they have consistently been over doing ridging over texas, especially the GFS with its bog “ death ridge” idea lol, dont wanna jinx it, but definitely hope that trend of over doing ridging continues for the rest of summer lol

[DoctorMu]

DoctorMu one thing ive noticed in the models this summer, is that they have consistently been over doing ridging over texas, especially the GFS with its bog “ death ridge” idea lol, dont wanna jinx it, but definitely hope that trend of over doing ridging continues for the rest of summer lol

Not enough weather balloon launches are cutting the legs under the already iffy GFS. Mets and NWS appear to just ignore it more now, especially after the tragedy in Kerr Co.

[DoctorMu]

Even my phone weather app has gone full Euro with low 90s for highs and a chance of rain over a portion of the next 14 days.

[TxLady]

These daily Thunderstorms remind me so much of the early 1970's, growing up in South Houston. Our local swimming pool opened every day at 1:00 pm. It was staffed by our High School Football coach and lifeguards were the Football players. Every dang day, there would come a storm at around 2:00-3:00 pm. Of course, if there's even a hint of lightning or a dark suggestive cloud anywhere near the neighborhood...the pool opening would be delayed or cancelled. My sister and I were in Junior High/Early High School. Any day without swimming pool = no interaction with cute Football players!