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Belmer wrote: ↑Wed Mar 06, 2019 12:46 pm As time gets closer, details will become a little bit more clear regarding next week's storm potential. But next Tuesday/Wednesday is looking worrisome for much of TX as a strong cutoff upper-level low digs in the Baja region advancing eastward. This will set up a sharp dry line out in west TX interacting with near 70F dew points along the TX coast and mid 60s for central and east TX. Look for our first quasi-linear convective system (QLCS) to develop. These are fairly common around here in the Spring and this looks to be our first one coming up... a potent one at that.

Something to keep in mind for those who have any Spring Break plans next week.

Will it be one of those events that have discrete rotating supercells ahead of the squall line? Or do we still need a few days to figure that out?

Exciting times! I hope we don’t flip from perpetually cold to perpetually capped!!

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 06, 2019 12:58 pm

Belmer wrote: ↑Wed Mar 06, 2019 12:46 pm As time gets closer, details will become a little bit more clear regarding next week's storm potential. But next Tuesday/Wednesday is looking worrisome for much of TX as a strong cutoff upper-level low digs in the Baja region advancing eastward. This will set up a sharp dry line out in west TX interacting with near 70F dew points along the TX coast and mid 60s for central and east TX. Look for our first quasi-linear convective system (QLCS) to develop. These are fairly common around here in the Spring and this looks to be our first one coming up... a potent one at that.

Something to keep in mind for those who have any Spring Break plans next week.

Will it be one of those events that have discrete rotating supercells ahead of the squall line? Or do we still need a few days to figure that out?

Still a few days to figure that out.. but looking at early analysis based on the GFS runs, thick cloud cover or even some light rain may be likely ahead of the front/QLCS. If that's the case, that should limit the tornado threat. If there are more breaks in the clouds and we get some sunshine to really destabilize the atmosphere, it could pose a greater tornado threat.
Hopefully by the weekend we'll get a better understanding of what could unfold. Regardless of tornado threat, parameters are there for a strong line to form out west and that will produce a quick 1-2 inches, strong winds (60+mph) and hail.

Belmer wrote: ↑Wed Mar 06, 2019 1:11 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 06, 2019 12:58 pm

Belmer wrote: ↑Wed Mar 06, 2019 12:46 pm As time gets closer, details will become a little bit more clear regarding next week's storm potential. But next Tuesday/Wednesday is looking worrisome for much of TX as a strong cutoff upper-level low digs in the Baja region advancing eastward. This will set up a sharp dry line out in west TX interacting with near 70F dew points along the TX coast and mid 60s for central and east TX. Look for our first quasi-linear convective system (QLCS) to develop. These are fairly common around here in the Spring and this looks to be our first one coming up... a potent one at that.

Something to keep in mind for those who have any Spring Break plans next week.

Will it be one of those events that have discrete rotating supercells ahead of the squall line? Or do we still need a few days to figure that out?

Still a few days to figure that out.. but looking at early analysis based on the GFS runs, thick cloud cover or even some light rain may be likely ahead of the front/QLCS. If that's the case, that should limit the tornado threat. If there are more breaks in the clouds and we get some sunshine to really destabilize the atmosphere, it could pose a greater tornado threat.
Hopefully by the weekend we'll get a better understanding of what could unfold. Regardless of tornado threat, parameters are there for a strong line to form out west and that will produce a quick 1-2 inches, strong winds (60+mph) and hail.

Gotcha, thanks!

Pulled the covers off. It appears I just had some minor leaf burn on the tips, but sometimes freeze damage can take a few days to show-up. I think most everything will be OK, except maybe the plumerias.

Not liking the Outlook for more chilly weather just beyond mid month. It seems like Winter does not want to end. Sigh...

srainhoutx wrote: ↑Wed Mar 06, 2019 5:52 pm Not liking the Outlook for more chilly weather just beyond mid month. It seems like Winter does not want to end. Sigh...

I think the epo is going to tank again.

0z GFS doesn’t really look that impressive for next weeks system at least to my eyes. Looks decent for NTX though. I really don’t see any significant rain chances across our area anytime soon, especially south of 10. Looks like most of the action will remain to our north and east like it has been for the most part.

Don't see much change from the overnight runs (00z & 06z). Looks like the biggest difference I see is that the front this weekend may not be as strong as initially thought a few days ago and the boundary could stall just off the coast this weekend and quickly lifting back as a warm front. This will quickly help with moisture return across our area and a dry line still looks to set up out west. Still plenty of time to watch next week's system. Just how far south that Baja low digs and how quickly it begins ejecting NE in the Southern Plains will depend just how strong our storms could be.

srainhoutx wrote: ↑Wed Mar 06, 2019 5:52 pm Not liking the Outlook for more chilly weather just beyond mid month. It seems like Winter does not want to end. Sigh...

Same as last year. Stayed cool through the end of April and then May torched....

At least it’s pleasant outside again. Now maybe my skin can recover too.

jasons wrote: ↑Thu Mar 07, 2019 11:50 am At least it’s pleasant outside again. Now maybe my skin can recover too.

Time for a run, sir?

tireman4 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 07, 2019 12:31 pm

jasons wrote: ↑Thu Mar 07, 2019 11:50 am At least it’s pleasant outside again. Now maybe my skin can recover too.

Time for a run, sir?

I want to so bad!! Saw lots of folks out enjoying it this morning. But we have another baseball game tonight so it will have to wait until tomorrow morning (unless it’s raining).

Latest TWC forecast has me at 80 tomorrow.

jasons wrote: ↑Thu Mar 07, 2019 12:41 pm

tireman4 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 07, 2019 12:31 pm

jasons wrote: ↑Thu Mar 07, 2019 11:50 am At least it’s pleasant outside again. Now maybe my skin can recover too.

Time for a run, sir?

I want to so bad!! Saw lots of folks out enjoying it this morning. But we have another baseball game tonight so it will have to wait until tomorrow morning (unless it’s raining).

Latest TWC forecast has me at 80 tomorrow.

That is your kind of weather sir. For me, I am on "sick reserve" My doctor has me backing way off on pace for 5 miles ( from 7:56 pace to 8:48 pace) because of the pollen/sinusitis junk. I am on that until Sunday or until I am through with this. Ughh.

Cap is holding and fog is interrupting Maritime interests from entering the Galveston Jetties. I don't see much in the way of significant rainfall this weekend, but areas NE of Metro Houston near Lufkin and Shreveport do need to monitor Saturday closely for the possibility of some Severe Storms. It appears we will not see a Pacific front clear the area Saturday night. The weak front looks to pull up stationary and retreat N as a warm front Sunday.

The early next week severe threats still looks possible. Areas from College Station/Bryan on N into the Mertoplex may be the favored locations for a tornado threat, but that is not certain at this range. A squall line does look possible in the Metro Houston area Tuesday afternoon/evening, so we will monitor that situation closely as the weekend unfolds. A strong front could arrive late next week bringing significant cooler temperatures and hopefully some Sunshine!

And the cap already makes its appearance.... welcome to Spring.

Added: it’s 71F at 2:30. Impressive warm-up and a few degrees warmer than forecast.

Another sign of nicer weather: just went for a walk outside and noticed our building security removing the plastic covers/protectors from all around their golf cart. No need for that when it’s in the 70’s

The 12Z European model suggested a snow potential late next week around the Metroplex. Now the CPC drops chilly air deep into Texas.

srainhoutx wrote: ↑Thu Mar 07, 2019 3:26 pm The 12Z European model suggested a snow potential late next week around the Metroplex. Now the CPC drops chilly air deep into Texas.

plz... say it isn't so

did a bunch of yard work today, except where it's still too wet - I was looking forward to Primrose blooming and St Augustine growing again

Geez, I pruned my orange tree today too. Boo hiss!!