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srainhoutx wrote: ↑Sun Dec 30, 2018 2:45 pm Hmmm...this sort of blocking regime doesn't look warm to me. A negative Artic Oscillation with negative North Atlantic Oscillation and a developing cross Polar flow into a deepening trough near mid January. The seems to match well with the long range prognostications I've seen.

DvsL0ucX4AAIm-r.jpg

harp wrote: ↑Sun Dec 30, 2018 2:46 pm

I guess what us lay folks are looking for is to when it will start showing up in the model runs?

srainhoutx wrote: ↑Sun Dec 30, 2018 3:07 pm

harp wrote: ↑Sun Dec 30, 2018 2:46 pm

I guess what us lay folks are looking for is to when it will start showing up in the model runs?

MJO has been meandering around in Phase 5 versus progressing into Phase 6. All the Global computer schemes missed that including the "so called" King Euro. See tropical activity in the Southern Indian Ocean as well as convection in the tropical West Pacific. Without getting too technical, the models have struggled with the North Pacific pattern and that may continue over the next week. Now add a very impressive Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event that has been extremely impressive the past 24 hours or so. Now look at volitily we have seen with this weekend and mid week. Mood swings among winter weather lovers as been in overdrive. Remember that Hemispheric and even Global weather patterns do not change on a dime. Heck, we are still waiting on official El Nino to be declared...

harp wrote: ↑Sun Dec 30, 2018 3:14 pm

srainhoutx wrote: ↑Sun Dec 30, 2018 3:07 pm

harp wrote: ↑Sun Dec 30, 2018 2:46 pm

I guess what us lay folks are looking for is to when it will start showing up in the model runs?

MJO has been meandering around in Phase 5 versus progressing into Phase 6. All the Global computer schemes missed that including the "so called" King Euro. See tropical activity in the Southern Indian Ocean as well as convection in the tropical West Pacific. Without getting too technical, the models have struggled with the North Pacific pattern and that may continue over the next week. Now add a very impressive Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event that has been extremely impressive the past 24 hours or so. Now look at volitily we have seen with this weekend and mid week. Mood swings among winter weather lovers as been in overdrive. Remember that Hemispheric and even Global weather patterns do not change on a dime. Heck, we are still waiting on official El Nino to be declared...

So, you are not throwing in the towel yet.

kyzsl51 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 30, 2018 11:08 pm Harp, I never post bit after many years of watching this forum I have to say you win the award of most annoying poster of all time! Cheers!

kyzsl51 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 30, 2018 11:56 pm Nothing wrong with learning! And thank you for that offer!

Andrew wrote: ↑Mon Dec 31, 2018 1:45 pm Unfortunately, looks like the majority of the winter weather will stay well north of here during the middle of the week as the upper level low does not dip far enough south. We should still see plenty of light rain showers with some models showing 1-2 inches accumulating across the region.

A couple of questions have been mentioned on here (and I apologize for being away) regarding the MJO and sudden stratospheric warming event. The MJO does obviously have an impact on weather across the United States, but for us across the Central United States the impact is usually more conclusive of warmer weather than anything else. The maps I have below show significance levels (right panels) and temperatures (left) for each phase of the MJO. Lower significance equates to higher confidence of correlation between the MJO and temps. As you can see correlation starts to break down in colder phases but is well documented with warmer temperatures. While obviously that doesn't mean it doesn't have an impact, it's just not as defining of an impact as sometimes advertised.


combined_image (1).png


Here is a link to more information for anyone who is interested about the graphic:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... adme.shtml


The other thing to keep an eye on is the Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW). Once again while the impacts can be felt locally, a lot of times you see more impacts across Europe and the East Coast of the United States. With that said, models do show a favorable positioning for the United States and impacts could be felt locally, but a lag of these impacts usually occurs days-weeks after the event happens. We will have to continue to monitor this as we go into the middle of the month.


epsmean10hPa60N (2).png


Overall though don't latch onto one model run too much right now. The environment is in more of a meridional flow currently and that often translates into large declines in model accuracy and precision. Just look at the MJO forecast between the GFS and ECMWF over the past several days as they have very different result.

Finally, I noticed the conversation here has become a little aggressive. While we support open conversation and try not to intervene, we do not support harassment of any kind. We like to keep this board as an open and welcoming place for people of all knowledge to discuss weather. It's an important resource for many people and we will continue to monitor over the coming days and take the necessary action if needed to make sure the discussion remains civil and constructive.

harp wrote: ↑Mon Dec 31, 2018 2:04 pm

Andrew wrote: ↑Mon Dec 31, 2018 1:45 pm Unfortunately, looks like the majority of the winter weather will stay well north of here during the middle of the week as the upper level low does not dip far enough south. We should still see plenty of light rain showers with some models showing 1-2 inches accumulating across the region.

A couple of questions have been mentioned on here (and I apologize for being away) regarding the MJO and sudden stratospheric warming event. The MJO does obviously have an impact on weather across the United States, but for us across the Central United States the impact is usually more conclusive of warmer weather than anything else. The maps I have below show significance levels (right panels) and temperatures (left) for each phase of the MJO. Lower significance equates to higher confidence of correlation between the MJO and temps. As you can see correlation starts to break down in colder phases but is well documented with warmer temperatures. While obviously that doesn't mean it doesn't have an impact, it's just not as defining of an impact as sometimes advertised.


combined_image (1).png


Here is a link to more information for anyone who is interested about the graphic:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... adme.shtml


The other thing to keep an eye on is the Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW). Once again while the impacts can be felt locally, a lot of times you see more impacts across Europe and the East Coast of the United States. With that said, models do show a favorable positioning for the United States and impacts could be felt locally, but a lag of these impacts usually occurs days-weeks after the event happens. We will have to continue to monitor this as we go into the middle of the month.


epsmean10hPa60N (2).png


Overall though don't latch onto one model run too much right now. The environment is in more of a meridional flow currently and that often translates into large declines in model accuracy and precision. Just look at the MJO forecast between the GFS and ECMWF over the past several days as they have very different result.

Finally, I noticed the conversation here has become a little aggressive. While we support open conversation and try not to intervene, we do not support harassment of any kind. We like to keep this board as an open and welcoming place for people of all knowledge to discuss weather. It's an important resource for many people and we will continue to monitor over the coming days and take the necessary action if needed to make sure the discussion remains civil and constructive.

Andrew, I'm sure you are referring to the gentleman who referred to my posts as annoying. I explained that I ask questions in an effort to learn as much as I can from the experts. If my questions are annoying, I apologize for that. It just kind of caught me off guard. I have followed the weather since I was a teen and am now 61 years old. I didn't mean to stir up any controversy.