January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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srainhoutx
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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1023 AM CST TUE JAN 24 2012

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN PARTS OF TX...

...SYNOPSIS...

MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES INTO NWRN
MEXICO WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED CIRCULATION AS THE SYSTEM
TRANSLATES SLOWLY ESEWD INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR WRN TX WILL CONCURRENTLY DEVELOP
SEWD...EVENTUALLY JOINING WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD/NWWD FROM
DEEP S TX INTO THE CNTRL PART OF THE STATE. A DRYLINE WILL ALSO
ATTEND THE MIGRATORY SURFACE CYCLONE AS IT MOVES THROUGH SWRN TX.

...TX...

THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF A DEEP MOIST LAYER
BENEATH AN EML...CHARACTERIZED BY BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S AND A 100-MB MEAN MIXING RATIO OF 14 G/KG. THE
LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE ABOVE-MENTIONED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH /MANIFEST IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 30-40 KT LLJ/
WILL ENHANCE THE NWD FLUX OF THIS MOIST AIR MASS...AND THE NWD
PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. LOW-LEVEL WAA AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT TO THE N OF WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS ELEVATED TSTMS TODAY...ALONG NRN EDGE OF
STRONGER CAPPING ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

MODIFICATION OF 12Z CRP SOUNDING FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AROUND
80 F SUGGEST THAT THE CAP WILL WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY SUCH THAT
ISOLATED SURFACE-BASED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MID LATE AFTERNOON
INVOF RETREATING WARM FRONT WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT FEATURING MLCAPE
OF 500-1000 J/KG AND A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH 40-50 KT
OF WSWLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP AND BECOME
SUSTAINED...A RISK FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF A TORNADO OR
TWO...DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL WILL EXIST.

A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
MATERIALIZE UNTIL THIS EVENING NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE WARM
FRONT AND DRYLINE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CONCHO VALLEY INTO EDWARDS
PLATEAU. HERE...INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS/DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL OVERSPREAD THE NWWD-DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR...FOSTERING
SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL /SOME
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT/...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE INTO AN EWD/SEWD-MOVING MCS
OVERNIGHT WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS...SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO OR TWO SPREADING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY
TOWARD THE MIDDLE TX COAST.
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01242012 1630Z day1otlk_1630.gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Portastorm
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Getting reports of hail in north Austin ... again, this was not forecast until later today. I suspect this storm system is stronger than the models indicated.
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Portastorm wrote:As usual, Wxman57 is spot on. For example, the "fun"-derstorms were not supposed to start here in Austin until later today. Well, as I type this, we're getting a healthy thunderstorm cell moving into the downtown area.

Meso and micro ...
even had very brief, small hail here in north central (near Lamar/45th). Only lasted for about a minute and was pea-sized, to slightly larger.
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Portastorm
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Pea-sized hail falling here at my office now in downtown Austin.
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jasons2k
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New storm report of marble size hail north of downtown Austin per GRlevel2.
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Katdaddy
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This is concerning:

FOSTERING
SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL /SOME
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT/...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.
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wxman666
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Latest update from the Storm Prediction Center has added western portions of the CWA to today's threat. You can overlay the counties to see who's at risk.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Ready for severe weather season!!
ticka1
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Katdaddy wrote:This is concerning:

FOSTERING
SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL /SOME
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT/...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.
Katdaddy when is this suppose to happen today/overnight or tomorrow?
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Katdaddy
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Late evening and overnight hours. More likely in Central TX before developing into an MCS and headed into SE TX.
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Katdaddy wrote:Late evening and overnight hours. More likely in Central TX before developing into an MCS and headed into SE TX.
Going to make it interesting waking up in the morning to and trying to get into work in the downtown area. Definitely be waiting until daylight to drive in..
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srainhoutx
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DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CST TUE JAN 24 2012

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF E TX INTO LA...

...SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER FAR W TX AT 12Z WEDNESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY...BUT STEADY EWD ACROSS TX. MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND SUGGEST A TREND TOWARD THE
ENE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO PHASE WITH
AN AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...THE PRIMARY
SYNOPTIC LOW SHOULD BE LOCATED IN DEEP S TX EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH THIS LOW TRACKING NEWD ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN...REACHING THE ARKLATEX BY 12Z THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
TRAILING SWD FROM THE SYNOPTIC LOW WILL ADVANCE EWD AND SHOULD
EXTEND SWD ALONG THE TX/LA BORDER INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...MODELS SUGGEST A SECOND
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...POTENTIALLY ATTENDANT TO A LATE DAY 1/EARLY
DAY 2 MCS...WILL BE LOCATED FARTHER N OVER CENTRAL TX...AND SHOULD
CONCURRENTLY TRACK NEWD.

...E TX AND THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST INTO LA...
A WARM SECTOR WILL SPREAD INLAND WEDNESDAY ACROSS E TX AND THE LOWER
MS VALLEY AS SELY-SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ADVECTS A FEED OF WRN GULF
MOISTURE NWD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING W TX UPPER LOW. ALTHOUGH
CLOUDINESS MAY TEND TO LIMIT SURFACE HEATING/GREATER INLAND
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
LITTLE HEATING WILL BE NEEDED TO WEAKEN INHIBITION FOR TSTMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE RETREATING WARM FRONT...WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND
ALONG THE EWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT THIS PERIOD. STORMS AND
ASSOCIATED/ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN TX AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. AS THE
SURFACE LOW REACHES E TX WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AN UPSWING IN TSTM
COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS EXPECTED ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WITH
THIS ACTIVITY ADVANCING EWD TO THE SABINE RIVER AND LA BY LATE DAY
2.

AS 40 TO 60 KT SSWLY MID LEVEL WINDS SPREAD EWD ATOP THE SURFACE
WARM SECTOR AND SLY/SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW...SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS. WHILE CONVECTION ON THE NRN FRINGE
OF THE REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...SURFACE-BASED
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS E TX INTO LA.
Attachments
01242012 1730Z SPC day2otlk_1730.gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1206 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN FAYETTE COUNTY...

* UNTIL 1230 PM CST.

* AT 1158 AM CST...NWS METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROUND TOP...OR 16 MILES EAST OF LA
GRANGE...AND MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE WINEDALE AND CARMINE.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1210 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2012

TXZ195-197-211-241915-
AUSTIN-BURLESON-WASHINGTON-
1210 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2012

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 1209 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 36 MILES SOUTH OF CALDWELL...MOVING NORTH AT 25
MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...BRIEF MODERATE DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...SHELBY...QUARRY...
SNOOK...CALDWELL AND BURTON.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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wxman57
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ticka1 wrote:
Katdaddy wrote:Late evening and overnight hours. More likely in Central TX before developing into an MCS and headed into SE TX.
Going to make it interesting waking up in the morning to and trying to get into work in the downtown area. Definitely be waiting until daylight to drive in..
I think that the prime time for heavy rain/severe weather in downtown Houston will be from about 9am to 3pm. It may come just after the morning drive time.
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For areas up around College Station:
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Hail up here in College station. Around dime- quarter size. Maybe a little larger.
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srainhoutx
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Hmmm... the 12Z Euro sure looks interesting right under the upper low... ;)
01242012 12Z Euro f48.gif
01242012 12Z Euro 12zeurohourly850mbTempAnomalyNA048.gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Mesoscale Discussion 63 - Watch Unlikely.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0063.html



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0063
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 241828Z - 242030Z

RAPID WARM ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY AND WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MID 65-70 F
DEWPOINTS ACROSS DEEP S TX AND THE MIDDLE TX COAST...RESULTING IN
MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG DESPITE LIMITED HEATING.

SPORADIC STORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND HAVE SHOWED
SIGNS OF HAIL AT TIMES. HOWEVER...STORMS HAVE TENDED TO WEAKEN THUS
FAR AS THEY MOVE AWAY FROM THE WARM FRONT.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY IN PLACE...BUT THE MAIN ISSUE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE THREAT IS LACK OF FORCING AWAY FROM THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE INCREASING WITH TIME...IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT SHEAR MAY ACT TO SUSTAIN A FEW SEVERE HAIL STORMS
WELL N OF THE FRONT INTO CNTRL TX. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE
PROFILES WILL FURTHER ENHANCE HAIL THREAT...WITH 1.00 - 1.75 INCH
HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CORES.

THE HAIL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NWD WITH TIME ALONG WITH THE
DEEPER ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND MAY APPROACH THE I-20 CORRIDOR LATER
TODAY.

..JEWELL.. 01/24/2012


ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 29569531 29699648 29139777 28739897 29379993 30330020
30989985 31709840 32579702 32539552 31749467 30889441
30279440 29709469 29569531
Ready for severe weather season!!
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srainhoutx
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wxman666 wrote:Mesoscale Discussion 63 - Watch Unlikely.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0063.html



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0063
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 241828Z - 242030Z

RAPID WARM ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY AND WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MID 65-70 F
DEWPOINTS ACROSS DEEP S TX AND THE MIDDLE TX COAST...RESULTING IN
MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG DESPITE LIMITED HEATING.

SPORADIC STORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND HAVE SHOWED
SIGNS OF HAIL AT TIMES. HOWEVER...STORMS HAVE TENDED TO WEAKEN THUS
FAR AS THEY MOVE AWAY FROM THE WARM FRONT.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY IN PLACE...BUT THE MAIN ISSUE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE THREAT IS LACK OF FORCING AWAY FROM THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE INCREASING WITH TIME...IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT SHEAR MAY ACT TO SUSTAIN A FEW SEVERE HAIL STORMS
WELL N OF THE FRONT INTO CNTRL TX. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE
PROFILES WILL FURTHER ENHANCE HAIL THREAT...WITH 1.00 - 1.75 INCH
HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CORES.

THE HAIL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NWD WITH TIME ALONG WITH THE
DEEPER ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND MAY APPROACH THE I-20 CORRIDOR LATER
TODAY.

..JEWELL.. 01/24/2012


ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 29569531 29699648 29139777 28739897 29379993 30330020
30989985 31709840 32579702 32539552 31749467 30889441
30279440 29709469 29569531
Attachments
01242012 mcd0063.gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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