January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month

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Katdaddy
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Srainhoutx gave a great summary on the upcomimg event. The only I have to add is......people PLEASE do not drive in high water! Getting from point A to point B is not worth risking your life or damaging your vehicle. I am expecting tomorrows AM rush to be chaos.
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srainhoutx
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Just an FYI: The models may have under estimated this upper low. Just got a call from friends in Albuquerque, NM reporting flooding rains across that Metro Area that we not forecast...

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Did anyone notice how pointed the NWS AFD was? No real discussion of the model differences or anything, it just simply reads like a narrative - 'this is what is going to happen and when'

I don't like the trends of the heaviest rain NW. Not exactly sure what's going on there...
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srainhoutx
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Update SPC Day 1 is out: Hints of on upgrade to Moderate Risk...?

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0703 AM CST TUE JAN 24 2012

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SW...S
CNTRL...AND E CNTRL TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPR TROUGH NOW ON THE AZ-NM BORDER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E OR ESE
TODAY...EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER FAR W TX BY EVE. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD BECOME FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS EARLY
WED...AND CONTINUE SLOWLY ESE TO THE TX BIG BEND.

APPROACH OF UPR SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN/ENHANCE BROAD AREA OF LOW LVL
CYCLOGENESIS ALREADY IN PROGRESS OVER ERN NM/W TX. THIS LOW SHOULD
GRADUALLY REFORM/CONSOLIDATE SEWD ALONG OR JUST S OF THE RIO GRANDE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINTAINING E TO SELY SFC FLOW OVER MUCH OF TX.
INCREASING MOISTURE...LOW LVL CONVERGENCE...AND UPLIFT IN THIS
PATTERN WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT
LATER TODAY AND TNGT OVER THE SRN PLNS...ALONG AND N OF SLOWLY
ADVANCING W-E WARM FRONT NOW OVER DEEP S TX. SOME OF THE
STORMS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OCCURRING THIS EVE THROUGH EARLY WED FROM
S CNTRL THROUGH E CNTRL TX...COULD BECOME SVR.

...TRANS PECOS/PERMIAN BASIN THROUGH S CNTRL TX/HILL COUNTRY TO THE
TX CSTL PLN TODAY THROUGH EARLY WED...
INCREASING SFC TO 850 MB MOISTURE INFLOW AND UPLIFT ALONG AND N OF
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN SCTD AREAS OF MAINLY
ELEVATED STORMS OVER PARTS AND CNTRL AND E TX TODAY...WITH WARM
LAYER ALOFT PROHIBITING DEVELOPMENT IN WARM SECTOR OVER S TX. WHILE
ONE OR TWO OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG...RELATIVELY MODEST
WIND FIELD AND ELEVATED NATURE OF MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD LIMIT
SVR THREAT.

A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR RISK MAY EVOLVE VERY LATE THIS AFTN OR...MORE
LIKELY...EARLY THIS EVE FROM ERN PARTS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN S/SE TO
THE TX BIG BEND.
COMBINATION OF HEIGHT FALLS/MID LVL COOLING
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPR LOW...AND DAYTIME HEATING...SHOULD
FOSTER STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG N-S LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE. WIND
PROFILES AND THERMODYNAMICS COULD SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES.

THE DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH
EARLY WED AS UPR SYSTEM CONTINUES EWD. THE STORMS LIKELY WILL
EVOLVE INTO AN EXTENSIVE...LOOSELY-ORGANIZED SSW-NNE SQLN.
INCREASING...NEARLY MERIDIONAL 50-70 KT MID AND UPR LVL
FLOW...STRENGTHENING UPR DIVERGENCE...AND CONTINUED INFLOW OF VERY
MOIST AIR /PW AOA 1.50 INCHES/...WILL ENCOURAGE DEVELOPMENT OF
EMBEDDED LEWPS AND ROTATING STORMS. AT THE SAME TIME...PERSISTENT
ELY COMPONENT TO THE NEAR-SFC WINDS MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF
LOW-LVL MESOCYCLONES. THIS ACTIVITY COULD YIELD AN INCREASING RISK
FOR DMGG WIND AND TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN...THROUGH
12Z WED.
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Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Potent upper level storm system will bring heavy rainfall and some severe weather to the region tonight-Wednesday.

Upper level storm system clearly noted on water vapor images moving eastward through the southern Rockies and northern MX this morning with a sub-tropical jet aligned from the central Pacific to coastal TX to southern GA. At the surface a weak warm front has developed and extends from near Corpus Christi ENE along the TX coast to offshore of the Louisiana coast. South of this boundary the air mass is exceptionally humid with mid and western Gulf of Mexico NOAA buoys showing higher than normal dewpoints for this time of year…a result on the mild winter and lack of Gulf cold air intrusions. Potent upper level storm system will dig into northern MX and SW TX today and slow its eastward progression while height falls ahead of this storm result in the formation of surface low pressure on the western end of the warm front over south TX. Increasing southerly low level flow on the east side of this surface low will result in the northward movement of the warm front inland across SE TX this afternoon and evening. Surface low will then track NE overnight into Wednesday morning along and east of I-35 with an expanding warm sector (warm, humid, and usually unstable air mass south of the warm front) across much of eastern TX.

This afternoon-midnight:
Lift will begin this afternoon as the warm front moves northward and sub-tropical jet cores overhead. Expect showers to begin to develop and spread northward across the region in a warm air advection pattern. Increasing dewpoints near the coast/offshore will bring sea fog into the coastal areas by early evening. Instability looks limited this afternoon, but increasing lift and favorable southerly low level inflow could result in a few thunderstorms.

Overnight-Wednesday afternoon:
Strong upper level storm will move into central TX with deepening surface low and cold front moving ENE across central and east TX. Overnight a strong low level jet of 30-45kts will develop over the region transporting copious deep tropical moisture northward off the western Gulf. Surface low formation over southern TX will back low level wind fields to the ESE and SE below increasing WSW mid level flow creating increasingly favorable low level shear. While the warm sector over coastal TX may initially be somewhat capped, increasing lift from the upper level low and favorable splitting jet stream structure along with mid level cooling from the cold pool aloft all support increasing thunderstorms after midnight in the warm sector. These storms will move SSW to NNE across the region in narrow bands and will have the greatest threat for low level rotation and tornadoes. At the same time a line of thunderstorms will develop over central into SW TX along the advancing cold front. This line will grow upscale into a squall line/linear thunderstorm complex by sunrise Wednesday as it moves east of I-35. Supercells will be possible both along this line and ahead of the line with a tornado and wind damage threat. Line should reach our western counties from Matagorda Bay to College Station around sunrise and into the metro Houston area between 1000am and 100pm. Wind damage and isolated tornadoes will be the main severe modes tonight-Wednesday.

In addition to the severe threat, tremendous moisture will be pumped into the region tonight with levels forecasted to reach near historical high amounts for late January. Surface to high level moisture amounts when integrated through the air column reach 1.7 inches which is at or above the +2 SD for this time of year. This combined with the threat for cells to repeatedly move over the same region….training…or supercells to anchor and slow in the low level flow are strongly pointing toward an excessive rainfall and flash flood event. Heaviest rains appear currently to be focused near/along I-35 where the surface low will track, but will not discount the threat for cell training over SE TX and the capability of this air mass to produce some very heavy short term totals of 2-3 inches in an hour or less. Rainfall of this magnitude will result in significant runoff into area watersheds producing rapid rises along with the threat for urban flash flooding in areas where the rainfall rates greatly exceeds the ability of the primary drainage system to convey the stormwater. Where the training bands will set up is almost impossible to determine until they form, but the area north of I-10 appears to have the greater potential for the heaviest rainfall t the moment.

Widespread 1-3 inches of rainfall will be common with isolated amounts of 4-5 inches possible. Given the depth of the moisture in place along with increasingly warm rainfall production, would not be surprised to see a few totals of 6 inches or greater in a few isolated spots.
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Katdaddy wrote:Srainhoutx gave a great summary on the upcomimg event. The only I have to add is......people PLEASE do not drive in high water! Getting from point A to point B is not worth risking your life or damaging your vehicle. I am expecting tomorrows AM rush to be chaos.
That's if we can get to work by driving or the bus. Might be a good day to call in and use vacation time.
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The trend over the past 24 hours via the NAM has been to dig the U/L further S crossing Central/SE TX and to slow its progression E. Also of note is a bit of a trend lessening the suggestion of heavier rains over OK that was suggested via that model yesterday leading to it being the outlier. What we'll need to watch in the hours ahead are the trends that develop in the shorter range meso models to see if they pick up on the dynamics at the upper levels (300/500mb) as well as exactly where the frontal boundary will set up tomorrow. This remains a very changeable situation and we'll need to continue monitoring the situation throughout the next 24 hour or so.
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This is just an observation from the non-meterhead eye, but with it digging further south and slowing down, shouldn't we move the heavier rainfall total projections SSE back towards the upper Texas coast?
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Ed Mahmoud wrote:9Z SREFs and 12Z NAM show a solid rain event in SE Texas, but again, the big winners are North and West. Biggest winners West of I-35 and up into Oklahoma on NAM. Immediate Houston are either side of 1 inch total.

What are you thinking for Waller, Montgomery, Brazos and Grimes Counties?
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srainhoutx
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote:This is just an observation from the non-meterhead eye, but with it digging further south and slowing down, shouldn't we move the heavier rainfall total projections SSE back towards the upper Texas coast?
The 12Z WRF/NMM would suggest that... ;)
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Lake Conroe should benefit tremendously from this event with massive run off from numerous feeder creeks (fast run off) on the north and south end. The last rain did help the lake level a little bit but as y'all know, it has a very long ways to go.


Lake Travis is down right pathetic. How much rain does that area look to receive?
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redneckweather wrote:Lake Conroe should benefit tremendously from this event with massive run off from numerous feeder creeks (fast run off) on the north and south end. The last rain did help the lake level a little bit but as y'all know, it has a very long ways to go.


Lake Travis is down right pathetic. How much rain does that area look to receive?

I think a widespread 1-2 inches should be expected across most of the area. The key is where will places get the locally 5+ inches? That is the question that we won't know until showers get going and we can locate where training is going to set up.
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Portastorm
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Yeah, (Lake) Travis is in bad shape. It's currently 43 feet below normal seasonal levels. We'd LOVE 3 inches of rain around these parts.
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Portastorm wrote:Yeah, (Lake) Travis is in bad shape. It's currently 43 feet below normal seasonal levels. We'd LOVE 3 inches of rain around these parts.

Hey Porta, are they still dragging cars and junk from Lake Travis? I mean, I think it was almost three years ago (2009), they were finding former stolen cars in the lake that were being exposed due to the lake levels dropping....


The steady recession of Lake Travis recently revealed vehicles missing for decades. Because the lake levels continue to drop, more artifacts, archeological history, and junk could pop up in the coming weeks.

Two cars and a motorcycle — all reported stolen — were recovered from the lake recently, and ancient Indian pottery and buffalo bones have come about as well. With historic sites like Lohman’s Crossing and old building foundations lurking in the depths along with debris in the murky waters, it is extremely difficult to search the lake further with divers despite the low lake levels, according to Roger Wade, spokesman for the Travis County Sheriff’s Office.

http://laketravisview.com/2009/07/30/la ... s-secrets/
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srainhoutx
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The frontal boundary is retreating N at this hour and moisture returning from the Gulf is beginning...

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I was out that way for New Year's Eve Porta. My sis has a house up on a cliff on the Colorado River on the south end where ithe rivercomes into the lake. It's a little creek you can jump over right now. A couple of years ago, you could water ski right below the house. I sure hope that area gets a few inches out of this system.

So what happened to the arctic air? I guess that's a no go now huh?
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bring on the rain!
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blah.... I was hoping for more in Montgomery County.

Here's holding out hope we can get some training here and squeeze out 3 inches plus.
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wxman57
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote:blah.... I was hoping for more in Montgomery County.

Here's holding out hope we can get some training here and squeeze out 3 inches plus.
I wouldn't trust the models too much on predicting just where the heavier rain will fall. Meso and micro-scale events will determine who gets more than 1-3 inches. Models don't work well on such small scales.
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As usual, Wxman57 is spot on. For example, the "fun"-derstorms were not supposed to start here in Austin until later today. Well, as I type this, we're getting a healthy thunderstorm cell moving into the downtown area.

Meso and micro ...
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