FEBRUARY 2018 - Roller Coaster WX To End February

[DoctorMu]

I'm still seeing a lot of amplified NW flow through the 11th. Canadian teasing again re: mischief within the state. Depends how far east the block sets up and sustains.

Climo says don't get sucked in yet...and start planting like crazy.

[Katdaddy]

Enjoyed this amazing warm sunset this evening.

[Katdaddy]

Enjoyed this amazing warm sunset this evening.

[Katdaddy]

Temps in the 50s with gusty N winds this morning thanks to last nights cold front which as moved offshore. Mostly cloudy and highs only in the upper 50s today. Saturday will be cloudy with showers likely followed by a partly cloudy Sunday and highs back into the 70s.

[BlueJay]

Beautiful evening sky photo Katdaddy

Happy Groundhog's Day! Will it be an early spring or 6 more weeks of winter?

[srainhoutx]

This thread title went from Arctic Cold returning to a very progressive pattern.

harp, haven't you seen this before. My gut instinct is the models have backed way off on any arctic intrusions, thus you have this now. We've had our winter fun this year, now bring on the warmth.

I've certainly seen this before. However, Srain keeps indicating that more may be on the way. The heat and suffocating humidity will be here soon enough.

Not sure if a big old Arctic Outbreak is in the cards for us along the Gulf Coast for February, but more shots of glancing Arctic Fronts are probably likely as we head toward mid month. I see that rodent in PA saw his shadow with light snow falling (someone explain that to me...) but Elsie the Cow in Brenham didn't. We may see a bit better chance of a chilly rain near next weekend if the CPC Day 8+ GEFS Super Ensemble 500mb pattern is correct though.

[srainhoutx]

NWS Houston‏Verified account @NWSHouston · 2h2 hours ago
Showers will return early Saturday as a weak area of low and a warm front approach the upper Texas coast.

02022018 HGX DVB4oFdUMAAl0d9.jpg

[CrashTestDummy]

Enjoyed this amazing warm sunset this evening.

It WAS nice, wasn't it? I commented to my wife how nice and warm the breeze was. It's been a long time since we've not had a wind that cut right through you.

[Belmer]

It has been a winter for sure here in SETX, but after yesterday... I'm getting the spring itch. I do think though we have a good chance at having relatively cool days as we head on the downside of winter and I expect a couple more nights of freezes too. However, I would expect that forecast more in the mid to later part of the month. Sadly for some on here, the hope seems to be fading away with any big arctic intrusions as once hoped a couple weeks ago. But the possibility is there... just slim.

As for this weekend, wouldn't rule out a possible thunderstorm along the coast, mainly in Galveston, Brazoria and Chamber counties depending on how far north that warm front lifts. Other than that, just another Saturday of dreary weather.
If you're getting the spring itch too, head out to south or west TX on Sunday where they will have highs in the mid 80's.

[brooksgarner]

I'm feelin' it too. Spring itch... Seriously debating planting some grass this weekend.

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon Updated CPC Day 6 to 10 and Day 8 to 14 Outlooks suggests below normal temperatures and slightly elevated precipitation chances throughout the Extended Range.

610temp.new(2).gif

610prcp.new.gif

814temp.new(10).gif

814prcp.new(9).gif

02022018 CPC Day 8+ 610analog_off.gif

Might need to keep an eye on late next week. The GFS and Canadian are suggesting an Upper Trough to our West dropping S along the Southern Rockies toward Mexico and a noisy sub tropical jet overhead after a cold front passes early next weekend and the possibility of a coastal trough organizing.

[brooksgarner]

SNOW??? (kidding)

[srainhoutx]

StormGeo‏ @StormGeo · 1h1 hour ago
The furry prognosticator in Punxsutawney has predicted 6 more weeks of winter & our long-range scientists believe he may be onto something as several more bursts of winter are expected before a milder trend takes over in mid-March. #6moreweeks #GroundhogDay2018 #GroundhogDay

[srainhoutx]

The overnight deterministic and ensemble Global guidance are suggesting a cold Upper trough extending from the Polar Vortex over Hudson Bay in Canada to our SW next weekend. The sub tropical jet appears very noisy with hints of a S Texas Coastal low/trough attempting to organize. Cold shallow dense air looks established across our Region at that time. That raises an eyebrow and will need to be monitored as the coming work week unfolds.

[don]

Yes the 0z Euro is now onboard as well.

[srainhoutx]

Barry Burbank‏Verified account @BarryWBZ · 1h1 hour ago
It Has Been A Brutal Winter In Most Of Canada! Check Out This Extreme Cold This AM. Impressive Radiational Cooling Developed Underneath A Sprawling Arctic High Pressure System In Western Canada. It's -51F At Rabbit Kettle Lake In The Northwest Territories!

02032018 Bary B Current Canada Temps DVHSUTqXcAAEGou.jpg

[srainhoutx]

Looking like we may have another chilly and wet weekend ahead next week.

[DoctorMu]

NW flow colliding with disturbances coming off a noisy southern jet. Be prepared for continued clouds, chilly, rainy off and on... in waves every few days. 10th-15th the most dynamic. Chancy of anything wintry slim here, but a few nights will hover near freezing.

Get on board the roller coaster!

DFW and NW Texas entertainment value from the Canadian, similar to the Euro. Something to monitor, just in case.

[srainhoutx]

Roller Coaster pattern looks to continue throughout the next week with wild temperature swings from near 80F today if the clouds clear out in time. Another strong front arrives early Wednesday bringing a chance of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms with hail possible mainly N of I-10. Temperatures plunge back into the 40's for highs Thursday before another trough approaches from the NW turning winds back off the Gulf with increasing moisture Friday with additional showers and thunderstorms developing before another sharp cold front arrives early next Saturday. The sub tropical jet looks extremely noisy with embedded disturbances extending back to the Southwest well S of Hawaii riding across Texas into Louisiana over the next week or two. It appears we are in an extended wet pattern with continued wild weather swings from warm to cold well into the long range.

99fndfd_init_2018020400.gif

day3otlk_sm.gif

9mhwbgloop.gif

p168i(19).gif

02042018 Goes West Globe IR 12Z 10.gif

[srainhoutx]

Michael Ventrice
Michael Ventrice
@MJVentrice
This some of the worst model volatility I've seen in a long time; Models diverge in their predicts as early as 5 days out. We are extremely limited in our capabilities in providing an accurate forecast today.