July 2021

[Stratton20]

Sambucol, We got one, problem is not sure I know how to set it up, but this makes me angry because my neighbors across the street have power, this should not be happening......

[sambucol]

Rip76 no it isnt because they said it didnt inpact any outages in the area, I got a dog with cancer to take of, and no air conditioning is a huge problem, cant charge my phone, cant work on college work, foods probably going to spoil because of no power to the refrigerator, im suing these clowns

I am very sorry about your dog. My 16 year old dog was diagnosed with an aggressive form of cancer at the end of January, Surgery, treatments, shots, she passed away April 16. It still hurts. I will pray for your dog.

[sambucol]

Sambucol, We got one, problem is not sure I know how to set it up, but this makes me angry because my neighbors across the street have power, this should not be happening......

I understand. My small generator has electrical outlets that I can plug directly into. If you're does, you should be able to do that. I'm not an electrical expert, however after Ike, I had a window ac, small fridge, tv, and light plugged into it for several days, and it worked. I ran exterior extension cords through and window and plugged in that way. For the AC, I used a heavier gauge extension cord.

[Belmer]

I think what happened is some people were trying to wishcast the heaviest rains towards Houston for some reason, but when it didn’t happen they called it a bust.

Plausible scenario. And as a meteorologist, I understand the excitement of extreme events. 15-year old me was excited when Hurricane Ike was making aim for Galveston... 29-year old me today would have much more reservations.

HRRR oftentimes can sniff out these nocturnal tropical feeder bands and can ultimately run supreme over any of the others when it nails a forecast like that. But the consensus was more farfetched with the surface trough broadening and pulling westward due to upper-level ridging.

[Dls2010r]

Getting good rain in Santa Fe right now

[Stratton20]

Sambucol thanks man ill see what i can do with my generation,this situation is stressing me out

[Cpv17]

Na its a bust regardless

I don't know about that. Its done exactly what it was supposed to? It rained a ton down south near matagorda bay and the surrounding areas. If anything id say the time frame of clearing out was more of a bust reading space city weather and others. 1.5-2" is common in Harris County over the past 24 hours and it has more moving in. The only hype i saw was really on here with "what if it sets up more north" etc...

Thank you,this event was not a bust from Harris county and eastward, there was never even a Flash flood watch issued for a reason for the eastern half of the area....1-3 inches was in the forecast and that's exactly what has happened with more rain still moving in.From the beginning the coastal bend region had the best chance of excessive rain due to its proximity to the low. And that is exactly what happened. I said this the other day but I will say it again.PLEASE stop reading model runs as forecast, they are not forecast, they are just potential scenarios.If the NWS doesn't have it in the official forecast it is NOT a Bust.

After looking at that graphic, it seems I just missed out on the higher totals and I retract my statement about it being a bust. Models did decent overall. I just missed out by maybe 20-30 miles on the heaviest totals. I had no idea they got that much rain just west and sw of me.

[cperk]

Sambucol, We got one, problem is not sure I know how to set it up, but this makes me angry because my neighbors across the street have power, this should not be happening......

I understand. My small generator has electrical outlets that I can plug directly into. If you're does, you should be able to do that. I'm not an electrical expert, however after Ike, I had a window ac, small fridge, tv, and light plugged into it for several days, and it worked. I ran exterior extension cords through and window and plugged in that way. For the AC, I used a heavier gauge extension cord.

Sambucol you should consider getting a transfer switch installed it would eliminate the need to running extension cords to power individual appliances and running extension cords through doors and windows.

[Cpv17]

I'm perplexed reading comments saying how this event was a bust. Outside of the HRRR (which hasn't had the greatest reputation IMO with these cutoff and meso lows the last few months) showing 12-16" overnight for someone, it has mainly totaled what was forecasted several days in advance.

No need to flood this forum with images from archived model runs, but I just spent 20 minutes looking over the Euro, CMC, GFS, NAM, WRF and the consistency was anywhere from 1-4" across Houston metro and surrounding counties with isolated areas getting 6"+. The heaviest rainfall has always been focused to our southwest where they have received 12"+. In addition, most all global and hi-res models continued to advertise most of the rainfall would be focused south of I-10 which has also materialized.

To be honest, from a forecasting perspective, I think models did an excellent job. I think the rainfall amounts back that up as well...

This was HGX's graphic yesterday evening for the overnight and today's rains:

HGX graphic.jpg



Here are the 24 hour rainfall totals that was valid at 7am this morning:

24 hour rainfall.jpg



7-day rainfall totals:

Weekly rainfall.jpg




If you rely on one model time after time with QPF, you will get burned 95% of the time. HGX doesn't always get it right either. Seems we only hear about when they are wrong. They get my compliments from their great discussions over the last several days. Great guys and gals over there who know what they are doing.

I called it a bust because I was kinda in the bullseye for the highest totals but only received about 2-3”. Turns out the highest totals were more so in Jackson County than in Wharton County. I thought the coverage of the higher totals would cover a larger area than what actually happened because that’s what almost every model had forecasted and the NWS as well. I believe for me personally it was a bust but overall it wasn’t.

[Stratton20]

Power back on for me, thank goodness, it was getting really hot inside with no AC

[Cpv17]

I think what happened is some people were trying to wishcast the heaviest rains towards Houston for some reason, but when it didn’t happen they called it a bust.

Plausible scenario. And as a meteorologist, I understand the excitement of extreme events. 15-year old me was excited when Hurricane Ike was making aim for Galveston... 29-year old me today would have much more reservations.

HRRR oftentimes can sniff out these nocturnal tropical feeder bands and can ultimately run supreme over any of the others when it nails a forecast like that. But the consensus was more farfetched with the surface trough broadening and pulling westward due to upper-level ridging.

I get just as excited still now as I did when I was in my teens lol

[DoctorMu]

I'm perplexed reading comments saying how this event was a bust. Outside of the HRRR (which hasn't had the greatest reputation IMO with these cutoff and meso lows the last few months) showing 12-16" overnight for someone, it has mainly totaled what was forecasted several days in advance.

No need to flood this forum with images from archived model runs, but I just spent 20 minutes looking over the Euro, CMC, GFS, NAM, WRF and the consistency was anywhere from 1-4" across Houston metro and surrounding counties with isolated areas getting 6"+. The heaviest rainfall has always been focused to our southwest where they have received 12"+. In addition, most all global and hi-res models continued to advertise most of the rainfall would be focused south of I-10 which has also materialized.

To be honest, from a forecasting perspective, I think models did an excellent job. I think the rainfall amounts back that up as well...

This was HGX's graphic yesterday evening for the overnight and today's rains:

HGX graphic.jpg



Here are the 24 hour rainfall totals that was valid at 7am this morning:

24 hour rainfall.jpg



7-day rainfall totals:

Weekly rainfall.jpg




If you rely on one model time after time with QPF, you will get burned 95% of the time. HGX doesn't always get it right either. Seems we only hear about when they are wrong. They get my compliments from their great discussions over the last several days. Great guys and gals over there who know what they are doing.

Seems to be an average of the models. As the CoC continues to drift west, the spigot will slowly become a drip sometime tonight or tomorrow.

[jasons2k]

At least over here, I hardly saw anything. It was a bust here, especially last weekend. I had 80%-90% chances of “heavy rain.” The discussions certainly called for it. I told my visiting relatives they were about to see some “Texas-style flooding!!” I thought the 4th was going to be a total washout.

We had nothing of the sort. We were high-and-dry on the 4th. They could have dug my pool last week with no issues. All that stalling….for basically nothing.

Today - I got .51” - the most rain since this pattern started 10 days ago.

[Belmer]

Plausible scenario. And as a meteorologist, I understand the excitement of extreme events. 15-year old me was excited when Hurricane Ike was making aim for Galveston... 29-year old me today would have much more reservations.

HRRR oftentimes can sniff out these nocturnal tropical feeder bands and can ultimately run supreme over any of the others when it nails a forecast like that. But the consensus was more farfetched with the surface trough broadening and pulling westward due to upper-level ridging.

I get just as excited still now as I did when I was in my teens lol

The excitement is there for me as well, just in a different form. For example, Harvey. It was evident 2-4 days out Harvey was going to be a potential biblical storm when rainfall totals were spitting out 30-50" run after run, model after model. It was truly hard to believe it would end up verifying at the time because it was truly unprecedented. Before Harvey, the highest rainfall total from a tropical system was TS Amelia back in 1978 that dumped 48" in a small area NW of San Antonio. These models were showing large swaths over much of SETX getting upwards to 50"+. It was mind boggling to know we could get our annual rainfall, plus some, in just 24-36 hours.

Of course, my inner kid is still there and I was more or less eager to witness something so historical right here in my backyard. But I also knew the devastating consequences and impacts that would result in such a catastrophe, should it occur. After I was able to get out of my neighborhood a couple days later, I helped volunteer at a church since so many were in need at that time. I felt like that was the least I could do after my inner excitement. I was living in Pasadena near BW8 and I-45 and remember when a report came in that a station near Hobby was recording 7-8" rainfall rates per hour and remember looking out my front yard and seeing my street fill up like you were filling a bathroom sink up with water. Just can't fathom I'll see something like that again, so as a meteorologist, it's exciting in that aspect, but those emotions are obviously more regarded due to the humanitarian crisis that came with it.

[Cpv17]

Plausible scenario. And as a meteorologist, I understand the excitement of extreme events. 15-year old me was excited when Hurricane Ike was making aim for Galveston... 29-year old me today would have much more reservations.

HRRR oftentimes can sniff out these nocturnal tropical feeder bands and can ultimately run supreme over any of the others when it nails a forecast like that. But the consensus was more farfetched with the surface trough broadening and pulling westward due to upper-level ridging.

I get just as excited still now as I did when I was in my teens lol

The excitement is there for me as well, just in a different form. For example, Harvey. It was evident 2-4 days out Harvey was going to be a potential biblical storm when rainfall totals were spitting out 30-50" run after run, model after model. It was truly hard to believe it would end up verifying at the time because it was truly unprecedented. Before Harvey, the highest rainfall total from a tropical system was TS Amelia back in 1978 that dumped 48" in a small area NW of San Antonio. These models were showing large swaths over much of SETX getting upwards to 50"+. It was mind boggling to know we could get our annual rainfall, plus some, in just 24-36 hours.

Of course, my inner kid is still there and I was more or less eager to witness something so historical right here in my backyard. But I also knew the devastating consequences and impacts that would result in such a catastrophe, should it occur. After I was able to get out of my neighborhood a couple days later, I helped volunteer at a church since so many were in need at that time. I felt like that was the least I could do after my inner excitement. I was living in Pasadena near BW8 and I-45 and remember when a report came in that a station near Hobby was recording 7-8" rainfall rates per hour and remember looking out my front yard and seeing my street fill up like you were filling a bathroom sink up with water. Just can't fathom I'll see something like that again, so as a meteorologist, it's exciting in that aspect, but those emotions are obviously more regarded due to the humanitarian crisis that came with it.

Travis Herzog said a few months ago on air that we can expect more crazy extreme weather events in the near future from now on out. Kinda like this is the new normal to a certain extent. I don’t remember for sure but I think he said it was due to global warming.

[Cpv17]

At least over here, I hardly saw anything. It was a bust here, especially last weekend. I had 80%-90% chances of “heavy rain.” The discussions certainly called for it. I told my visiting relatives they were about to see some “Texas-style flooding!!” I thought the 4th was going to be a total washout.

We had nothing of the sort. We were high-and-dry on the 4th. They could have dug my pool last week with no issues. All that stalling….for basically nothing.

Today - I got .51” - the most rain since this pattern started 10 days ago.

You always get screwed outta rain. No wonder why it’s always hotter at your house than everywhere else in southeast TX.

[jasons2k]

At least over here, I hardly saw anything. It was a bust here, especially last weekend. I had 80%-90% chances of “heavy rain.” The discussions certainly called for it. I told my visiting relatives they were about to see some “Texas-style flooding!!” I thought the 4th was going to be a total washout.

We had nothing of the sort. We were high-and-dry on the 4th. They could have dug my pool last week with no issues. All that stalling….for basically nothing.

Today - I got .51” - the most rain since this pattern started 10 days ago.

You always get screwed outta rain. No wonder why it’s always hotter at your house than everywhere else in southeast TX.

It was almost comical. I was showing the radar to my relatives and my step-mom goes “look at that, it’s like there’s a donut over your neighborhood!”

[don]

I don't know about that. Its done exactly what it was supposed to? It rained a ton down south near matagorda bay and the surrounding areas. If anything id say the time frame of clearing out was more of a bust reading space city weather and others. 1.5-2" is common in Harris County over the past 24 hours and it has more moving in. The only hype i saw was really on here with "what if it sets up more north" etc...

Thank you,this event was not a bust from Harris county and eastward, there was never even a Flash flood watch issued for a reason for the eastern half of the area....1-3 inches was in the forecast and that's exactly what has happened with more rain still moving in.From the beginning the coastal bend region had the best chance of excessive rain due to its proximity to the low. And that is exactly what happened. I said this the other day but I will say it again.PLEASE stop reading model runs as forecast, they are not forecast, they are just potential scenarios.If the NWS doesn't have it in the official forecast it is NOT a Bust.

After looking at that graphic, it seems I just missed out on the higher totals and I retract my statement about it being a bust. Models did decent overall. I just missed out by maybe 20-30 miles on the heaviest totals. I had no idea they got that much rain just west and sw of me.

Oh I definitely understand you feeling that it was a bust in your area, because Wharton county was much closer to the low. And was also under a FF watch. And most models were more aggressive for your area. I was referring more to the people that live in Houston and points east, as the chances for excessive rainfall were always much lower for the eastern half of southeast Texas, than the western half of the area(specifically southwest).

[Cpv17]

I ended up with 3.35” altogether with yesterday and today combined.

[ajurcat]

Our bay house in Calhoun County received over 17" since Saturday. Saturday wasn't much at all, just a few sprinkles and a beautiful double rainbow over Carancahua Bay. Sunday had a hard rain, maybe 2" max. Monday, when we left that afternoon, it hadn't rained at all. So basically from Monday evening through today, they received about 15" or more.