August: tropical cyclone dialogue.

[sleetstorm]

What do the computer modes depict forming in the tropics during August?

[Paul]

I havent looked beyond 240hr ECM which has nothing.....Nothing stands out on the GFS either...I suspect we have another week or so lull....I can use the sleep.....

[wxman57]

Long range models indicate drier, sinking air over the Gulf/Caribbean from early next week through about the 5th of August. After that, low shear and rising air is indicated.

[Ptarmigan]

Don't get too comfortable with this lull. It will really pick up from there I think.

[sleetstorm]

I realize, all too well, that we are a good eight days away from August, but I decided to begin a new thread for next month.

I also noticed that next month is when tropical cyclone activity really gets going on the tropical strom & hurricane activity chart that one of you posted this month. It has the months May to December on it and orange that symbolizes hurricanes & red that symbolizes tropical storms and hurricanes.

This is off topic, but how many school districts are in session, if any are at all?

[sleetstorm]

Long range models indicate drier, sinking air over the Gulf/Caribbean from early next week through about the 5th of August. After that, low shear and rising air is indicated.

So, be twofold if not threefold more vigilant in the Gulf of Mexico, Straight of Florida, Sargasso Sea, Atlantic Ocean, and Carribean Sea around and during that time and on, correct?

[SusieinLP]

Sleetstorm....right now many schools are in the second session of summer school. Most public schools in this area don't return to the fall semester until around the 25th of August... I think a few begin earlier but most are at the end of August....

I guess if anyone needs to stock up on hurricane stuff this is the time to do it....

[ticka1]

My DD15 starts school on Aug 23rd - that seems to be a unspoken trigger for tropical weather development - when schools start around here! She has less then a month off!

[Ptarmigan]

Something tells me once the lull passes, it will be more active, it will be an endless train of storms and hurricanes to November or even December.

[sambucol]

My DD15 starts school on Aug 23rd - that seems to be a unspoken trigger for tropical weather development - when schools start around here! She has less then a month off!

Ain't that the truth!!!

[srainhoutx]

Euro suggests a couple of storms on August 5th...

[sleetstorm]

You mean that wave of low pressure south of western Cuba and the other one south of the Virgin Islands, srainhoutx?

[srainhoutx]

That's the way I see the charts, sleet. We shall see.

[srainhoutx]

After a brief break in all the Tropical Activity, it appears we are headed toward a fairly robust period ahead as we enter August. MJO is now retrograding from region 3 back toward 1 and 2 (Atlantic Basin). El Nino years can wreak havoc on signals regarding the MJO. Models are responding by showing an increase in activity in the longer range. Also, SAL is on the decrease and the MDR is beginning to see moisture return after a long dry spell that is very typical for July. It is always a good reminder for folks to have their Hurricane Supplies in order and your own Family Hurricane Plan of Action ready if needed.

[Scott747]

Buckle up.

King Euro has spoken -

[sleetstorm]

Since we have a general tropical thread, and a long range model thread, we should make this a August NS/H/MH thread.


5/3/2, says I.

What do you mean by August NS/H/MH 5/3/2, Ed Mahmoud?