July 2021

[Stratton20]

12z Euro has widespread 4-6 inches across SE texas, with a few bullseyes of 8+ inches in some spots

[mcheer23]

12z Euro has widespread 4-6 inches across SE texas, with a few bullseyes of 8+ inches in some spots

Some EURO ensembles 10-12

[Stratton20]

mcheer23 do you think the NWS might issue a flash flood watch by early next week? Seems most models are showing some impressive totals after the 4th

[davidiowx]

Looks like a long afternoon/evening of rain..

[snowman65]

hey...its flooding....shocker.

[DoctorMu]

Canadian - looks like a long week!

[Dls2010r]

Not a drop in Santa Fe yet

[don]

mcheer23 do you think the NWS might issue a flash flood watch by early next week? Seems most models are showing some impressive totals after the 4th

HGX mentions that possibility in their discussion this afternoon.

.LONG TERM [Monday Through Saturday]...

The first half of the week looks to continue on the wet side for a
majority of Southeast Texas as an upper low and northeast to southwest
oriented shear axis becomes established across the state. Heading toward
the end of the week and on into the weekend, some ridging aloft (centered
across the southwestern states) will attempt to edge into Texas and
potentially reduce our rainfall chances. Until that happens, precipitable
water values will remain on the high side, and that will support periods
of locally heavy rainfall (similar to what is being observed so far
this weekend). Generally expecting convection to be diurnally driven,
with late night through early morning activity mainly concentrated around
and especially to the south of Interstate 10 corridor, then spreading
inland as the day progresses. What areas and what timing of the rain`s
best chances and heaviest amounts will probably end up being influenced
by outflow boundary collisions and possible sea/bay breeze boundaries,
and we`ll just have to see how everything looks to set up each day.
We will have to closely monitor where the highest rainfall totals occur
each day and maybe consider a Flash Flood Watch if a large enough area
receives some hefty amounts. For now, it still looks like we can expect
long term period rainfall totals to average 3 to 5 inches with locally
higher amounts possible, especially for areas close to and south of
the Interstate 10 corridor. As we all know, a quick burst of heavy
rain in a slow moving storm could easily give localized spots a very
quick 2 to 4 inches resulting in an increased flood threat.

Best plan is to continue to monitor the weather forecasts each day
as the rainfall amounts and rates listed above could easily change.
Know where the heaviest rains have occurred, and allow yourself some
extra time if you must travel to or through those areas. Avoid any
flooded roads. Stay weather aware!

[djmike]

Flooded in Beaumont. Blah blah whats new.

[Cromagnum]

Maybe a half inch so far in Rosharon. Mother in law's flight was delayed from 10 AM until 10 PM because of a little rain too.

[Stratton20]

18z GFS has a bullseye of 12+ inches in south central and some parts of the southern counties in SE Texas, the placement of the exact location of the heaviest rainfall could be anywhere, but the models ( CMC,Euro and GFS) all are in agreement that someone is going to possibly get a little too much rain

[DoctorMu]

Canadian has a nearly 2 foot bullseye near Columbus.

[Cpv17]

Canadian has a nearly 2 foot bullseye near Columbus.

That was the 12z. The latest CMC shifted the higher totals back further west again.

[Cpv17]

Pretty much all the 0z models trended drier keeping the bigger totals further south and west of southeast TX.

[davidiowx]

Rain chances dropped way down today. Looks like it could be a good day for fireworks after all!

[Stratton20]

CPV17 computer models struggle in terms of where the heaviest rain fall will occur, those big bull eyes could just as easily be over us , just depends on if any training occurs, my attention changes to the front however, definitely will have to watch for any sort of spin up in the gulf, not saying anythings gonna happen, but water temps are more than warm enough to support something

[Ptarmigan]

The forecast models are all over the place.
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/te ... 0000z.html

[Cromagnum]

Meh. The more an event is hyped, the less actually happens. All I know is right now it feels dreadful outside.

[Stratton20]

Seems like tropical tidbits is down ATM, cant view any of the 12z model runs

[Cpv17]

Meh. The more an event is hyped, the less actually happens. All I know is right now it feels dreadful outside.

I kinda agree with you. Seems like the ones that come outta nowhere sometimes end up being more of an event than a heavily modeled event.