June 2021:

[MH5]

Picked up a quick 2.14” here in the heights. Had the drone up getting some cool cloud shots not expecting all the hail we got about 15 minutes later. Crazy stuff

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[srainhoutx]

Fantastic shots MH5! Thanks for sharing! Meanwhile here in the Smoky Mountains we had a cold front arrive dropping dew points to the 20’s with Northerly breezes. The forecast is calling for upper 40’s tonight. This is why we retired here in far Western NC at 3300 feet above sea level!

[Cromagnum]

Just out of range.

[jabcwb2]

Tomball is getting great rain, lightening show a terrific round of thunder. Pretty good gusts of wind. Haven't seen any hail.

[Kingwood36]

Surfside Beach

[Harveyvsallison]

Interesting flare up in the BOC.
What are the odds the center gets pulled more to the East under those storms?

Yep that is what I was pointing out earlier. It is quite possible the center forms up in that cluster and that is what ends up moving it into LA instead of TX.

That’s the area all models show a center developing

[Cromagnum]

That Surfside photo is nuts

[don]

18Z GFS and EURO ensembles.

[TexasBreeze]

Heavy rain for 15 minutes and cooler!

[Kingwood36]

18Z GFS and EURO ensembles.

So they are just as lost as we are lol

[DavidH]

Looks like the chance for rain showers should be higher today and tomorrow as a couple of shortwave disturbances rotate southwest across the state. Unfortunately, impacts from the system down in the BOC look limited, and if anything could further increase temperatures this weekend/early next week depending on how much development occurs. I think even if landfall was along the Texas Coast this system would be so heavily sheared showers would stay well east of the region. The biggest positive news here is models do show at least a chance for an isolated rain shower/thunderstorm daily over the next couple of days.

Andrew nailed this one on the rain today.

[Stratton20]

NHC upped odds of development in the next 2 days to 50%

[Cpv17]

Picked up a .25” yesterday and another .75” tonight. Great rain!!

[DoctorMu]

About 0.5 in this evening and 0.1 yesterday. Will take it.

[Stratton20]

Disturbance is now up to a 60% chance in the next 2 days and a 90% chance in the next days now

[Scott747]

The experimental hurricane model (HAFS) that's currently undergoing testing to replace the HWRF had a sizable shift w on the 0z run from the border to around Sargent/Surfside on late Saturday.

Can't say I'm buying it yet after one run but something to monitor going forward for not only this system but throughout the season. I referenced it a few times last year and it's done fairly well....

Still not terribly organized though the intensity model for it gets up to about 45 kts near landfall.

*edit*

Taking another look the experimental model is still splitting the system with one in the gulf and epac.

[djmike]

Did models shift back east?

[jasons2k]

Update from Jeff Lindner:

An elongated trough or very broad area of surface low pressure remains over the Bay of Campeche near the Mexican coast this morning. There has been little change in the organizational structure of 92L over the last 24 hours and the system remains fairly broad in nature and continues to interact with the landmasses of central America and Mexico. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue in association with this feature over the Bay of Campeche.

Global forecast models continue to insist that a broad surface low pressure system will begin to lift northward out of the southern Gulf of Mexico late on Thursday and into Friday and arrive along the NW Gulf coast late Friday night into Saturday morning. Shear values continue to look unfavorable for any significant development of this system, but a tropical depression or tropical storm is possible as the system nears the coast early on Saturday. Given the likely component of WSW/SW shear aloft over the tropical system combined with a drier air mass over TX entraining into the circulation, most of the rainfall impacts continue to look to be east of SE TX and focused over the central and eastern US Gulf coast. However, without any defined low level center having formed yet, there is still some uncertainty on exactly what the ultimate track of the surface low will be and that can changes some of the impacts some.

SE TX Impacts:
Main concerns will be coastal water levels on Friday into early Saturday with increasing swells and winds across our coastal waters. Circulation will likely move near/across our eastern waters Friday night with winds backing to the NE/ENE on Friday into early Saturday and increasing into the 25-30kt range. Seas will likely build into the 6-8 ft range offshore and some of this swell will reach the coast. Favorable NE wind direction combined with incoming swell will likely result in coastal water level rise on the order of 1-2 ft with total water level guidance showing 3-4 ft at high tides late Friday into Saturday. These levels are close to flooding thresholds on the Gulf facing beaches where wave run-up could cause some minor flooding at times of high tide.

Rain chances look to increase late Friday near the coast and spread slightly inland on Saturday, but there is likely to be a strong gradient between some rain and squalls and little to no rainfall as dry air wraps into the western side of the circulation. Will focus most of the activity near Galveston Bay and eastward and keep totals generally on the lighter side with the majority of the moisture passing to our east.

As the tropical system lifts NE away from SE TX late in the weekend into early next week, the trailing moisture plume may work into SE TX will increasing rain chances.

[Scott747]

Did models shift back east?

The 6z gfs did. More towards central la with most of the weather displaced to the e.

[don]

Models are still having a hard time determining where the main center of circulation will take form and if there will be any center relocations.Some are aimed towards the upper Texas coast while others are showing a landfall in Louisiana.Usually by this time we would have a much better idea on how everything will play out,but due to a lack of a defined center the models continue to flip flop.