June 2021:

[DoctorMu]

Not going to be much excitement from the gyre low and trough until the mid-GOM ridge and associated dry air lifts later this week.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24

AXNT20 KNHC 142325
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Jun 15 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2240 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Two is located near 35.5N 72.0W at 2100 UTC,
or about 175 nm...or 320 km...E of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.
Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Currently,
the depression is moving NE at about 16 kt. The central pressure
is 1006 mb. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm
tonight. A large mid- latitude trough digging across eastern
North America should cause the cyclone to accelerate toward the
northeast over the next couple of days. In about 36 hours, the
system is forecast to dissipate near Newfoundland as it is
absorbed by a larger extratropical low. Please refer to the latest
products issued by the National Hurricane Center at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details. For marine information,
please refer to products issued by the Ocean Prediction Center at
www.ocean.weather.gov.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 20W from
17N southward, moving W near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 02N to 13.5N between the coast of Africa and 25W.
This tropical wave has a low chance of developing into a tropical
cyclone over the next five days.

The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is 40W-42W and from 20N
southward, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection
is noted along and within 90 nm north of the ITCZ to the west of
the wave, between 41W and 50W.

The axis of a Caribbean tropical wave is near 63W from 16N
southward, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from Venezuela near 08N to 17N between
61W and 67W.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 85W from 17N southward,
moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is noted across the W Caribbean and Central America south of 17N
between 81W and 89W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near Guinea-
Bissau to 12N16W to 06N39W. The ITCZ then continues from 06N41W
to the NE coast of Brazil near 04N51W. Convection is noted about
associated with the tropical waves.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad low pressure area of 1009 mb is centered near 19N95W over
the Bay of Campeche, accompanied by a surface trough extending
from 23N97W through the low to 19N91W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted in the Bay of Campeche south
of 21N. A surface trough extends from the northern Florida
Peninsula near 30N83W across the northern Gulf to 28N90W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted ahead of
this trough across the eastern Gulf. A ridge of high pressure
extends from the SW N Atlantic across Cuba to the across the
central Gulf to the central Texas coast. Light to gentle W winds
are noted north of 25N, with light to gentle NE south of 25N in
the western Gulf, and light to gentle SE winds south of 25N in the
E Gulf. Seas are 3 ft or less across the basin.

Weak high pressure ridging will remain over the central Gulf of
Mexico into mid-week, supporting mainly gentle to moderate
anticyclonic winds across the basin. The trough of low pressure
over the Bay of Campeche has a potential to slowly develop during
the next few days while it meanders near the coast of Mexico, and
a tropical depression could form late in the week when the system
begins to move slowly northward.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Late morning scatterometer data showed moderate to fresh to winds
in the S central Caribbean, and across the southern Gulf of
Honduras. Moderate to locally fresh trades are noted elsewhere in
the basin. Seas are 6 to 7 ft in the south central Caribbean,
with 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. The eastern Pacific extension of the
monsoon trough stretches across central Costa Rica to the SW
Caribbean along 10N to northern Colombia. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 09N to 11N between the coast of Colombia
and 78W.

A ridge of high pressure north of the basin combined with lower
pressure over Central America and Colombia will support pulsing
fresh to strong trades over the S central Caribbean and Gulf of
Honduras into the weekend. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail
elsewhere, except light to gentle south of 11N. A tropical wave
that entered the E Caribbean this morning will cross the central
Caribbean mid-week, then the western Caribbean at the end of the
week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Depression Two.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms extend across western waters
from 31N S-SW across the Bahamas to the Florida Peninsula and the
Straits of Florida. Ridging dominates the basin, anchored by the
Azores High north of the area. Moderate to locally fresh trades
are noted south of 22N and west of 40W, with gentle to moderate
anticyclonic winds noted elsewhere west of 35W. A tight pressure
gradient west of the African coast south of the Canary Islands
supports strong NE winds from 16N to 28N east of 25W. Seas of 4 to
7 ft dominate the Atlantic waters, except 7 to 10 ft seas in the
area of fresh to strong winds.

A large area of Saharan dust covers the tropical Atlantic
westward to eastern Caribbean. Both the GOES Geocolor imagery and
Sahara Dust imagery from CIMSS indicate this feature.

For the forecast west of 65W, Tropical Depression Two will move
northeast away from the area and the U.S. early this week. A ridge
of high pressure along 28N will sink southward and weaken today.
Winds will be fresh to locally strong north of 28N through the
early part of the week as pair of cold fronts move by north of the
area.

$$
Stripling

[jasons2k]

Got a brief shower and 0.1 of an inch.

Excepting nada from 92L.

I’m afraid you’re probably right. I’ve also taken notice of the strength of the ridge out west. You’d think we’d be in prime location for a small pocket between the death ridge and the Bermuda high. Starting to get concerned they may connect. Yes, I want my pool and all but I sure as heck don’t want a death ridge with drought and constant oppressive heat. I hit 100F again today and TBH I’m a bit surprised it has already happened a few days in a row with such ease, after the wet pattern and without much influence from a ridge.

Hobby hit 100 yesterday and 99 today. Bush was 98 today. Hot all around!

[Harveyvsallison]

https://youtu.be/H32YRO8R7yw

[Stratton20]

Interesting 00z GFS run has no change, but the 00z CMC run has significantly shifted to the west, making landfall along the Texas coastline, although it keeps the heaviest rain in LA, but still that would mean rain for us

[djmike]

Good Tuesday Morning. Who’s ready for another hot sizzling burning stifling miserable 100 degree day?

[Cromagnum]

Can't even walk outside to my truck without sweating like crazy. This sucks.

[redneckweather]

I love the heat. It makes me look forward to that first cool front, bow hunting and college football so much more.

[Andrew]

Looks like the chance for rain showers should be higher today and tomorrow as a couple of shortwave disturbances rotate southwest across the state. Unfortunately, impacts from the system down in the BOC look limited, and if anything could further increase temperatures this weekend/early next week depending on how much development occurs. I think even if landfall was along the Texas Coast this system would be so heavily sheared showers would stay well east of the region. The biggest positive news here is models do show at least a chance for an isolated rain shower/thunderstorm daily over the next couple of days.

[Cpv17]

The GFS is showing a decent setup for rain in the midrange but the Euro doesn’t have it.

[jasons2k]

Morning update from Jeff

Little change overnight with the elongated trough over the Bay of Campeche. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue over the region, but there remains no defined low level low pressure system.

Global models begin to lift the trough axis northward starting on Thursday and indicate a better chance for a surface low pressure system to form. The general consensus of the global models continues to indicate a track of any low level center toward the north or northeast, but there remains some degree of uncertainty as to where the low level center may form and the eventual final track. Will lean toward the GFS and eastern weighted solutions given the expected shear over the western Gulf of Mexico likely encouraging center relocations closer to the deeper convective plumes on the eastern flank of the circulation. Generally conditions in the western Gulf do not look overly conducive for development and a fairly disorganized system is expected.

Given the expected track of any surface low to the east of SE TX along with most of the impacts to be focused on the eastern side of the system supports minimal impacts over SE TX. Impacts will likely focus around increasing tide levels as higher and longer period swells approach the coast this weekend, but at this time guidance is keeping tides levels below flooding levels however something to watch later this week. Rain chances may increase also if some moisture can wrap around the western side of the circulation, but any heavy rainfall and flooding threat should focus east of our area.

[Stratton20]

Keeping my fingers crossed that this tracks closer to usin my opinion being on the dry and hot side is even worse

[jasons2k]

Morning post from our friend Wxman57:

Still looks like a sheared, weak TS at most. Squalls reach SE LA Friday before noon. Center moves ashore between Lake Charles & Vermilion Bay Saturday night. Not much weather associated with the center. All TS wind likely will remain in squalls offshore. Maybe 4-6" rain SE LA Fri/Sat.

[Stormlover2020]

Now we can watch the nam and rgem to see what they show, nam is interesting

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... atl_28.png

[Stormrider]

Friends and neighbors, I know that this waiting is like watching pain dry. We're going to have to wait until a center of circulation forms before the models can make sense of things. The Gulf has thrown us more than one surprise over the years, so I suggest we keep a wary eye on this system.

[Stratton20]

Stormrider I 100% agree with you

[Stormlover2020]

Gfs shift west

[Stratton20]

12z GFS has significantly shifted to the west, closer to houston

[Harveyvsallison]

12z GFS has significantly shifted to the west, closer to houston

Yes the GfS shifted west to boliver peninsula!

[Stratton20]

HarveyvAllison this is exactly why I said we are not out of the woods at all, we will see if the CMC and Euro pick up on the trend or if this is just one of those flip flop runs by the GFS

[don]

Yeah the 12Z GFS and Canadian show a Texas landfall with the Canadian being heavily sheared with most precip in SE Louisiana.The GFS is interesting as it didn't really shift west from the 6Z run but it shows a tighter system with wrap around moisture into southeast Texas.