General Tropical Discussion Thread

[srainhoutx]

It appears the 'switch' has been turned to the 'on' position.

[ticka1]

Anyone notice that piece of energy left down in the BOC?

[srainhoutx]

Guidance suggests the NW Caribbean into the W GOM will remain unsettled for awhile.

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUL 24 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS
NOT ANTICIPATED...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR ZERO...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA

[srainhoutx]

Anyone notice that piece of energy left down in the BOC?

Still looks disturbed this morning as well...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

[ticka1]

I see the ULL is now south of us - is it going to move onshore? That will settle the GOM back down.

So glad Bonnie didn't amount to much but a nake swirl.

[srainhoutx]

Yeah, the Upper Low should move onshore today. Looks like an increase in tropical moisture as early as later today/tonight for areas to our E. Tomorrow we should 'feel' that increase in PW's locally. HGX thinking chances of heavy rainfall Monday through Wednesday with a rather stout onshore flow.

Edit to add: wxdata is getting bored so perhaps we will have something to talk about in the July Discussion thread with the heavy rainfall forecast.

[cisa]

is there anything on the horizon this week to keep an eye on?

[Rip76]

BOC?

[ticka1]

BOC?

Noticed that too? As someone posted - did the ULL push the ex 98L back into the BOC?

[cisa]

yeah, I was looking at that myself.

[srainhoutx]

ABNT20 KNHC 242348
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 24 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED ITS LAST ADVISORY ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE. THE REMNANT LOW OF BONNIE IS CENTERED
ABOUT 65 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND
IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. RE-DEVELOPMENT OF
THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED BEFORE THE LOW REACHES THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ALONG
THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO LAND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[srainhoutx]

Interesting area of disturbed weather near the Yucatan this morning. Although it is probably interacting with the Upper Low in the Gulf, this area has been one of the main regions to watch for development all season. Pressures look a bit too high at this time though.

[SusieinLP]

That blob does look interesting. I noticed that this morning....Something to watch???

[Paul]

has no model support either.....odds are it wont make invest...but if they can name 99L after it was inland they can sure tag this...

[srainhoutx]

Ivanhater posted this loop that I found note worthy. There certainly is some mid level spin going on...

[srainhoutx]

HPC thoughts in Final Extended Disco:

IN THE TROPICS...THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARGUED FOR A QUARTET
OF FEATURES...TWO TROPICAL WAVES CROSSING THE ATLANTIC WHICH DO
NOT APPEAR TO SEPARATE FROM THE ITCZ...ONE TROPICAL WAVE INDUCED
BY A RETROGRADING UPPER CYCLONE IN THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL
PACIFIC LATE IN THE PERIOD...AND A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST TO THE WEST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. NHC AND HPC
POINTS WERE QUITE CLOSE AT 16Z...AND AN AGREED-UPON COMPROMISE WAS
USED FOR THE MOST RECENT PRESSURES.


http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

[srainhoutx]

Is that the new GFS, I wonder. I think it is. The old GFS tended to have a Northward bias on Cape Verde systems, I have no idea what the biases of the new GFS might be.

The first run of the "New GFS" is at 12Z today.

[srainhoutx]

HPC:

ACROSS THE TROPICS...THERE ARE A QUARTET OF SYSTEMS WHICH WERE
COORDINATED WITH NHC AT 16Z...TWO IN THE ATLANTIC AND TWO IN THE
PACIFIC...WITH HPC AND NHC POINTS WITHIN TWO DEGREES...120
NAUTICAL MILES...IN ALL CASES WHICH LED TO A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE TWO SETS OF POINTS BEING AGREED UPON. IN GENERAL...THE
CANADIAN WAS THE MOST BULLISH...WITH THE ECMWF THE FARTHEST NORTH
WITH THE WESTERNMOST NORTHEAST PACIFIC SYSTEM.

[srainhoutx]

There certainly is some spin just off the African Coast...