June 2021:

[Stratton20]

Your absolutely right blake, most likely this will stay a weak to moderate system, but then again stranger things have happened in the gulf in years past, definitely bears watching

[Texaspirate11]

With the SAL layer moving in, wind shear AND the fact that the circulation is so broad, I find it hard to believe this would become much more than a low grade tropical storm--at least the way it looks to me now. If this is a shrimpy system then landfall will be irrelevant with as most of the rain will be east of the center.

Thank you

[Harveyvsallison]

It’s still early !!!! Models will shift

[DoctorMu]

It’s still early !!!! Models will shift

Just how many kats with the same i.p. address are there?

[davidiowx]

It’s still early !!!! Models will shift

Just how many kats with the same i.p. address are there?

Lmao! It doesn’t even need that truth to tell it’s the same person.. oh the humanity

[Stratton20]

00z ICON has trended further west, has a tropical storm just off the Texas coast

[Kingwood36]

00z ICON has trended further west, has a tropical storm just off the Texas coast

Icon is trash not a good tropical model

[Stratton20]

Kingwood36 I know its not good, but the trend today in the models has been further to the west, so we will see what the other modes show

[Cpv17]

00z ICON has trended further west, has a tropical storm just off the Texas coast

Icon is trash not a good tropical model

Ehhh it’s not one of the best models but it’s not the worst either.

[Stormlover2020]

Gfs shifted way farther east

[Stratton20]

At this point I dont think we can trust any of the models, wish a circulation would form so all of this dang flip flopping would stop

[Kingwood36]

Lol...haven't we been saying this for the longest

[Stormlover2020]

Lol yep that’s what we been saying, throw the models out right now

[Kingwood36]

Until there is a well defined coc...models are pointless...period and ppl who moan and groan over every single swing west or east gets annoying after a while

[Stratton20]

Oh im not groaning but it is really annoying with all the model flip flopping going on

[Kingwood36]

Oh im not groaning but it is really annoying with all the model flip flopping going on

Didn't say it was you

[Rip76]

It’s still early !!!! Models will shift

Just how many kats with the same i.p. address are there?

Gold, Jerry... Gold

[Stratton20]

NHC has increased development odds to 50% now

[don]

Still have a ways to go before more is none with the outcome of this system.As there is no defined center yet,and still a lack of consistency from run to run. 0z GFS had the storm hitting southeast Louisiana. While the 6z shifted to the west meandering the storm off the Texas coast before being picked up by a trough into southwest Louisiana. Expect more flip flopping over the next few days.But i think by mid week we should have a much better idea on how everything will play out.As there is more room for error than normal with this forecast because of the nature of gyre's and their lack of a defined center, instead consisting of multiple centers or vorticities. And whichever vorticity eventually becomes dominant can have big implications on track.

[Dls2010r]

Don what are the 2 pics?