June 2021:

[Rip76]

Just returned from an awesome offshore fishing trip. Zero rain, and only slight chop on the waters. Me and 5 others hauled in close to 200 lbs of red snapper with most of them being 20 or so lbs each. May not get to do that again for a while.

Awesome. We need a like button, I’ll pay for it.

[Stratton20]

Latest 00z CMC and GFS runs are very interesting

[don]

In June tropical cyclones tend to move from south to north.Due to strong troughs over the northern half of the country that erode the ridge just enough to allow a weakness, and a path for the storm to follow.I am stating this because where we see tropical genesis will probably have an impact on the track.(IE: A storm developing over the BOC would have a better chance of heading towards Texas.While a storm that develops over the Yucatan or Northwest Caribbean would have a better chance of feeling the trough over the northeast and heading towards the north/northeast Gulf instead.) Think of Tropical Storm Cristobal from last year as an example.

[Cpv17]

My goodness the 6z GFS is wild

[Cromagnum]

My goodness the 6z GFS is wild

Nope. Don't like that.

[Stratton20]

Yeah just saw the 06 GFS run, thats intriguing, another fujiwara effect haha, but even it has trended the potential gulf storm further west, definitely at least somewhat concerning despite being a week out

[Stratton20]

In my opinion the GFS might not be a very reliable model for this hurricane season at least

[Cpv17]

I don’t really pay too much attention to op runs this far out. I put more stock into the ensembles and the ensembles are favoring the w. Gulf right now.

[Stratton20]

I agree I personally look more at ensemble runs than the standard operational model runs though they still are important, I just think the GFS isn’t necessary good with cyclogensis,

[don]

Still far out... but the 12z EURO shows a tropical storm now forming in the BOC and moving north like the Canadian model.

[Stratton20]

Yeah definitely a pretty strong signal that something is going to form , anything that forms in the BOC posses a bigger threat to Texas compared to if its forms by the Yucatan or western caribbean

[Pas_Bon]

Yeah definitely a pretty strong signal that something is going to form , anything that forms in the BOC posses a bigger threat to Texas compared to if its forms by the Yucatan or western caribbean

Especially in the early part of the season.

[Stratton20]

Yep definitely something to watch, especially the steering currents

[Cpv17]

At the end of the Euro there’s a pretty strong trough over the Mid Atlantic states/Appalachians. That would most likely pick it up and move it north or northeast instead of towards us. But that’s 10 days out. I haven’t seen the EPS yet.

[Stratton20]

Yeah im not buying that lol, I personally think this is going to be more of a western gulf threat, Louisiana or Texas, Euro eanemble favors the Western gulf and the CMC is also further west, dont think that trough will be there, but we shall see what evolves in the coming days

[Dls2010r]

Hopefully it’s nothing. We don’t need it and neither do our neighbors.

[Stratton20]

Dls2010r I hope so too but that is unfortunately looking less likely, favorable MJO phase, combined with low wind shear and warm sea surface temps, I think a tropical storm is definitely on the table, not ruling out a Cat 1 hurricane either

[jasons2k]

The highway that is to be not mentioned is back to its old tricks, at least so far today.

On another topic, it’s way WAY too early to speculate on the intensity of what may become of the disturbance modeled in the gulf.

[Stratton20]

Jasons I dont think its way too early to speculate, the pattern is definitely very favorable for development, ofc im not going to go over the top and say a atrong hurricane but I definitely think a tropical storm is pretty likely to form somewhere either in the Western Caribbean or BOC, considering this is inside of 10 days, im not anticipating a robust hurricane, but if its one thing I know its to never ever underestimate a system in the gulf, I would be shocked if something doesnt developed given this has a pretty decent amount of ensemble support

[Stratton20]

So this person on a facebook page im following says this system is going out to the pacific and by california and that it wont fet into the gulf but yet I show this person several major models, and the ensemble runs which clearly show a potential for a gulf threat, and this person has the audacity to tell me to do my research some people I dont get smh