May 2021:

[Rip76]

[quote=Rip76 post_id=98169 time=<a href="tel:1622322940">1622322940</a> user_id=222]
I’m guessing today’s rain chances fizzled out.

Those rain chances that were originally predicted for Saturday actually came late Friday night so no they didn’t really fizzle out, they just came earlier than predicted.
[/quote]

I was thinking the same.

[Cpv17]

The WPC is slowly coming around:



The Euro is really wet too.


So is the CPC:







Also, check out the cooler temps:







And if you combine all that with the warming SST’s in the Gulf and the GFS hinting at development, anything that does develop could potentially head towards the western Gulf.

[Stratton20]

Yeah we definitely could be looking at some tropical development within the next 7-10 days, and definitely concerned about a Texas Impact should anything form. Ridging in the east and Northeast will pretty much send any sort of tropical system our way

[DoctorMu]

^Going to enjoy this while it lasts. EVery week of cool(ish) and wet brings us one week closer to football season...and eventually something that mimics Fall for 2-3 weeks.

[Rip76]

^Going to enjoy this while it lasts. EVery week of cool(ish) and wet brings us one week closer to football season...and eventually something that mimics Fall for 2-3 weeks.

This!

[srainhoutx]

NWS Houston
@NWSHouston
Map showing Category 4 Hurricanes within 120 miles of Galveston. Laura (2020) joins select group: Galveston 1900 and 1915 hurricanes, 1932 storm, and Carla (1961).

[Stratton20]

Interesting map

[Dls2010r]

Didn’t CPV call this possible storm a few days ago?

[Stratton20]

Huh?

[Dls2010r]

Huh what! You know damn well he did.

[Stratton20]

Bruh Chill, are you referring to the potential storm the GFS is showing 9-10 days from now?

[Cpv17]

Didn’t CPV call this possible storm a few days ago?

Yes I did but this is a different system. The one I mentioned a few days ago was an EPAC crossover and the one that the GFS has been hinting at the past few runs is a CAG (Central American Gyre) system which seems plausible because late May into June is CAG season. It does have some ensemble support from the GEFS & EPS as well so it has my interest.

[Stratton20]

One thing Im potentially concerned about “ IF and I mean only IF” this system forms, it may not be a fast moving one, seems at least on the GFS that the “ potential system” kind of just meanders around in the western gulf, steering flow could be erratic

[Stratton20]

WPC has drastically increased the rainfall outlook for SE Texas over the next 7 days

[Cpv17]

The 0z Euro has increased the rainfall as well.

[don]

There could be some flood issues by the later half of the week.Something to keep an eye on for sure.

LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Monday]...

An upper-level low over Baja California will slowly traverse
eastward towards the end of the week. Through Friday, this cutoff
low essentially sits stationary. The positioning of this low places
southeast TX right in line for numerous rounds of shortwaves. With
persistent onshore flow providing a steady flow of moisture and
instability, chances for showers and thunderstorms will prevail
throughout the rest of the week. By Sunday, the upper-level low will
have pushed into TX. Global models are in agreement on the trough
that the low is embedded in will become negatively-tilted, with the
GFS reflecting a quicker progression into the tilt. Simultaneously,
a jet streak (although a relatively weak one) will wrap around the
southern flank of the trough and place the region in the left exit
quadrant providing upper-level divergence. This favors more
widespread coverage of showers/thunderstorms in the latter half of
the weekend and into early next week. It is a bit too early to nail
down any specifics as far as timing goes, especially with the timing
of the progression of the low/trough and its tilt differing between
the GFS and ECMWF. However, there is model consensus on a tightening
pressure gradient on Sunday-Monday as a surface low attempts to
develop in north TX which will increase our low-level moisture
transport. As a result, PW values increase to 2"+, so locally heavy
rainfall will certainly be a possibility in this time frame.

[Stratton20]

WPC has increased the rainfall outlook yet again for SE texas, they have widespread 4-7 inches over the next 7 days

[Cromagnum]

Ugh. I have a chartered fishing trip this coming Sunday. Hope it's not ruined.

[Stratton20]

It might be, rain chances will look to linger all the way into next wednesday or thursday, definitely concerned about the flooding potential

[djmike]

Solid 5”+ for me in Beaumont according to the latest QPF. I dont want it. We dont need anymore. Hurry, someone come and take it away...