May 2021:

[jasons2k]

I went on a walk earlier - we have a trail that runs through the woods. It's a swamp. Standing water everywhere with swarms of mosquitoes. I think we're good for awhile. Looks like storms on the way, though...

[Cpv17]

Unless something pops up on the south side, I don’t think areas south of 59 will see much action today. Looks like the NW quadrant of the area will see the most action.

[Cpv17]

Dangerous looking setup on the 12z GFS next week.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 yep ive been seeing that as well, could possibly be looking at another potential flooding event next week

[DoctorMu]

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 yep ive been seeing that as well, could possibly be looking at another potential flooding event next week

Yeah it’s looking like a stalled boundary with a low out to our west.

[Stratton20]

Yeah definitely a concern, even with a few days to dry out the ground still might be somewhat saturated by next week considering how much rain we got this week

[Stratton20]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... watl_1.png
Northern Gulf Starting to warm up after being below average for several weeks, that 26 Celsius line ( 80 degrees) is approaching the Texas coast

[Cpv17]

The CPC is in on another potential big rainfall event for next week:





And the wet pattern continues after that:

[Stratton20]

Yeah just saw that, we just cant catch a break, well maybe a few days but definitely not highly but a little concerned about that slight heavy rainfall outlook from the WPC

[srainhoutx]

Looking like a persistent trough pattern over Texas that likely will extend into at least mid June, if not longer. Enjoy your 80's and rain chances. Drought worries are looking less likely at least for the foreseeable future!

[Stratton20]

Ill gladly take this weather pattern! We usually dont get this kind of weather pattern to last this long

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Looking like a persistent trough pattern over Texas that likely will extend into at least mid June, if not longer. Enjoy your 80's and rain chances. Drought worries are looking less likely at least for the foreseeable future!

I'm deep in love, right now, with that map. Stay the hell away 90s.

[Cpv17]

The GEFS has trended wetter for southeast TX today as well:

[Stratton20]

Yeah im growing confident we are going to have another long stretch of wet weather again starting by next tuesday or so

[DoctorMu]

Looking like a persistent trough pattern over Texas that likely will extend into at least mid June, if not longer. Enjoy your 80's and rain chances. Drought worries are looking less likely at least for the foreseeable future!

I'm deep in love, right now, with that map. Stay the hell away 90s.

Good stuff. Not to double down, but there's a cold front sneaking into Texas on Saturday.

How low can it go?

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu that front wont do much in the way of dropping temps lol, highs will still be in the middle 80’s

[tireman4]

FXUS64 KHGX 260838
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
338 AM CDT Wed May 26 2021

.SHORT TERM [Through Thursday Night]...
Persistent small complex of shra/tstms that originated in
northwest Tx last night is trying its best to move into southeast
Texas early this morning. Of course, not a single model I`ve seen
thought it would make as much sewd progress. Cloud tops are warming
and lightning has been diminishing, but precip is moving at a fast
enough rate where it (or its remnants) will make it into the
Brazos Valley in the next few hours. Have bumped POPs up across
most of the area into the mid morning hours with the highest
across nw parts of the CWA. Precip amounts/intensity shouldn`t be
significant, but may see some 15-25mph winds along the leading
edge.

This may throw a wrench into the forecast for today. Where will
the boundary end up? Might it stabilize the locations behind it
for a decent part of the day? Could it be a focus for afternoon
activity? Something to watch I guess. In the big picture, PW`s
should be in the 1.5-1.7" range today which is less that yday and
the past week or so. Upper flow will be transitioning to a drier
nw flow aloft as upper ridge in Mexico tries to expand nwd along
with some llvl ridging from the east. Theoretically, there should
still be enough lingering moisture to get some diurnally driven
sct shra/tstm activity going with heating & the seabreeze. Precip
should quickly taper off this evening with the loss of heating.

A bit drier and more stable on Thurs. Bulk of area should be
dry, warm and muggy...but can`t totally rule out an isolated shra
along the seabreeze across the southern parts of the area. 47

&&

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]
Synoptic setup for Friday is a surface high pressure centered
over the eastern Gulf with an upper level low swinging through the
Great Lakes region. This low pressure system will drape a weak
cold front turned stationary boundary across the Red River Valley
Friday that will remain there through day on Friday. The high
pressure over the Gulf should help keep most of the precipitation
from that boundary north of our area, but cannot out rule an
isolated shower across the northern third of the area on Friday.
If the high pressure ends up being weaker or further east than
expected, then that boundary may be able to surge a bit further
south giving higher precipitation chances of Friday. Saturday
morning is looking to be the wettest period of the long term as an
upper level low swings through Texas invigorating showers and
thunderstorms along the boundary. This disturbance may be able to
force the boundary off the coast Saturday night giving way to a
rather dry day across the area on Sunday as high pressure tries to
build in from the northeast. Though the atmosphere remains
saturated through Monday keeping the chances of some diurnally
driven showers and thunderstorms, but precipitation looks to be
exception rather than the rule. PoPs do increase heading into
Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper level low moves in from the
west, but this is about a week out so not having high confidence
one way or another on it.

High temperatures on Friday will be in the upper 80s across the area
with some spots trying to push 90 - but increased dew point
temperatures will lead to heat index values approaching the upper
90s. Temperatures do decrease slightly through the weekend thanks to
cloud cover on Saturday and some cooler air filtering in from the
north on Sunday. But heat indices will stay in the 90s through the
weekend, so remember to stay hydrated if you decide to enjoy the
holiday weekend.

&&

.Marine...
The onshore flow is becoming light reducing wave heights across
the Gulf Waters to 3 to 4 ft, so have dropped the caution flags.
High risk of rip currents may continue due to the onshore flow
though. East to southeasterly flow will continue through midweek
next week, at least. Precipitation chance increase on Saturday as
a disturbance slides into the area with additional chances of
precipitation next week.

High tides continue to run slightly high (about 3 ft above MLLW),
but have decided against a Coastal Flood Advisory due to the
downward trend of tide levels and the lack of impacts the past few
days.

Fowler

&&

.Aviation...
IFR/MVFR ceilings and some patchy fog should eventually trend to
VFR toward late morning. Sct precip is possible during the day,
though overall coverage should be less than what we`ve seen
recently. VFR conditions continue into the overnight hours,
followed a return of some MVFR stratus northwest of Highway 59
corridor late tonight into early Thurs morning. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 86 72 87 73 87 / 40 10 10 0 20
Houston (IAH) 86 72 87 72 89 / 30 10 10 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 84 76 84 76 84 / 20 0 0 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 10 AM CDT this morning for the
following zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria
Islands...Galveston Island...Matagorda Islands.
GM...None.

&&

$$

[Cpv17]

6z GFS has a tropical storm hugging the Texas coastline and making landfall in SWLA but it’s about 11-12 days out.

[Pas_Bon]

Looking like a persistent trough pattern over Texas that likely will extend into at least mid June, if not longer. Enjoy your 80's and rain chances. Drought worries are looking less likely at least for the foreseeable future!

maybe it's gonna snow!!!