May 2021:

[jasons2k]

Interesting turn of events.
Moisture feed stretches across the Yucatan and into the NW Caribbean....
Off to baseball, while we can still squeeze-in a game.

[Cpv17]

Till the NHC mentions it, it’s probably not going to get much attention.

[Stratton20]

Oh I have pretty high confidence they will in the 8 pm update

[don]

two_atl_5d0.png

There it is... at 20%

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu May 20 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical low pressure area located about 625 miles east-
northeast of Bermuda is forecast to strengthen into a storm-force
low pressure system tonight. On Friday, the low is expected to turn
west-southwestward over warmer waters and will likely become a
subtropical cyclone near and to the northeast of Bermuda. After
that time, the low is forecast to move northward and northeastward
into a more hostile environment by Saturday night or Sunday.
Additional information on this developing low pressure area can be
found in High Seas forecasts issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction
Center and forecast products, including a tropical storm watch,
issued by the Bermuda Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

A disorganized area of cloudiness and thunderstorms over the
western Gulf of Mexico is associated with a surface trough of low
pressure. Conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for
some development over the next day or so before the disturbance
moves inland over the northwestern Gulf coast late Friday or Friday
night. Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy
rainfall over portions of southeastern Texas and southwestern
Louisiana on Friday and through the weekend. Additional information
on the rainfall and flooding potential can be found in products
issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.

[Kingwood36]

The threat is real..although 20%

[Stratton20]

Kingwood20 that 20% will probably be increasing in the next update, im 90% confident we will at least have a tropical depression folks

[Cpv17]

Well at least they mentioned it.

[don]

NHC usually is always conservative on the first outlook for development. Chances will increase based on organization.HGX is watching it.

[Stratton20]

Im just hoping this is a fast moving system and not a slow moving one like Imelda was, what are yalls thoughts on that?

[TexasBreeze]

Hgx upped the rain chances and have included heavy rain and Gusty winds. 90 percent now for Inland Harris.

[Cpv17]

Im just hoping this is a fast moving system and not a slow moving one like Imelda was, what are yalls thoughts on that?

Looks like it’ll be a quick mover from what I can tell but training could still very easily occur because like Jason said earlier, this is pulling in moisture all the way from the Caribbean.

[don]

Hgx upped the rain chances and have included heavy rain and Gusty winds. 90 percent now for Inland Harris.

Yep

Showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could produce gusty winds and heavy rain. Low around 70. East wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

[Stratton20]

Yeah thats what im worried about, I remember even when Imelda moved into North Texas it was still pulling up feeder banda off the gulf and into SE Texas, thinking this could a be a late friday- sunday event

[srainhoutx]

Thursday evening briefing from Jeff:

Old complex of thunderstorms that moved off the TX coast yesterday has festered over the west-central Gulf of Mexico today.

While the satellite images look impressive, there appears to be no closed low pressure system at the surface and instead a surface trough extending across the region. Thunderstorms have been weakening this afternoon with little to no new development so far this evening and there is a large area of dry air west of the feature that will likely become entrained over time. There has been some recent model support for the feature today for some additional development as it moves generally toward the NW or NNW in the general direction of the TX and LA coast.

NHC is suggesting the feature has a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 2 days.

This feature could help to enhance rainfall amounts over SE TX over the weekend, but any additional impacts beyond that at this time appear to be minimal.

[Rip76]

Is this where it poofs out after dark?

[Cpv17]

Is this where it poofs out after dark?

DMIN and DMAX. It’s going through a diurnal minimum cycle right now. DMAX should be occurring after midnight and into the morning hours.

[Stratton20]

Yeah ita extremely normal for these tropical systems to have their convection wane at night but then refire up again , which is what I suspect will happen, I got a gut feeling this system is going to be better organized by the time we all wake up tommorow morning

[don]

Yep whats more important right now is it being able to maintain a circulation until DMAX. The fact that the mid level circulation has persisted all day,and not died down by now means this is not just a MCS or outflow boundaries in the gulf that we often see this time of year.But that actual low pressure has developed.

[Cpv17]

If this goes more towards Galveston then most of the rain will be into Louisiana and towards the Golden Triangle but if this goes more towards the mid TX coast then we’re gonna be in for a wet weekend.

[don]

Its now INVEST 91L

91L INVEST 210521 0000 24.3N 93.7W ATL 20 1010