May 2021:
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Stratton20
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That is true, and just when we thought we were in the clear , absolutely crazy
JB is buying into tropical development fwiw.Says similar system to Bertha of last year.
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/stat ... 3204402177
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/stat ... 3204402177
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srainhoutx
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Always keep an on any potential tropical mischief in the Western Gulf in late May. It's that time of year again.
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Stormlover2020
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EURO ensembles onboard...
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Stratton20
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Han Solo once said” I got a bad feeling about this”. I got that seem feeling right now in terms of this system in the gulf
Well...that escalated quickly. Think there was at least consensus that we weren't out of the woods yet with this set up, but tropical mischief is another level. UKMET also on board. The rest of the 12z run has it running north through the hill country, central texas, and into the big country.
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Stratton20
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Yeah this could be another significant flood threat , I am growing very concerned now
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TexasBreeze
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It would be the classic "dirty side" track for our part of Tx. The creeks are still higher than normal and grounds wet too.
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Stratton20
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Yeah this would be a huge blow to some areas, definitely have to watch this extremely closely
Euro ensemble tropical cyclone development probability.
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Stratton20
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Thats at least a 80-90% probability of formation by the Euro model... This isnt looking good folks
Are any pro mets even talking about this? I haven’t seen any.
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Kingwood36
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Katdaddy
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Well 2021 hurricane season is ready to get this party started. Thankfully not much rain across SE TX since yesterday with the action staying offshore. More model consistency on development in the NW GOM headed to the Middle TX Coast. he main concern would be more heavy rainfall should this occur. The GOM satellite looks interesting but nothing at the surface. We do not need more rainfall. 4.9” in the backyard the last 5 days is enough and many of us saw much higher totals. Yep just saw Blake's post on FB.
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TexasBreeze
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That sure looks wet even without further development!
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Stratton20
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Looks like its taking on a comma shape! Definitely looks to be organizing as we speak
18z gfs looks like it's trying to close it off near matagorda bay late tomorrow.
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Stratton20
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Yep 18z GFS run is starting to come in line with the Euro and other modes, definitely seems to be trying to close off a circulation around matagorda bay