May 2021:

[Stratton20]

We probably are going to have to watch friday and Saturday as well for the potential for more heavy rain and flooding, seems like the moisture wont be cut off like it was today

[djmike]

The big blob looks to have reversed and is moving back inland now. NWS dropped tonight’s pops down to 40% and they just bumped it back up to 80% for tonight. (Bmt).

[jasons2k]

The blob in the Gulf just won't stop...something...

[Stratton20]

Seems like their is a little bit of a spin in that complex of storms in the North western Gulf. Thankfully its non tropical though,maybe a coastal low though

[djmike]

Pouring sheets now in Beaumont. Im gonna have well over a foot and a half by this weekend if this keeps up.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I’m convinced BPT is the flood capital of America now.

[Stratton20]

Unfortunately its looking like rain chances at least between 30-50% might be sticking around until next thursday or so, seems like some of the models including the GFS are indicating at least a decent chance for atorms through next thursday, doesnt seem like that high pressure to the east of us will nudge far enough west

[Cpv17]

I’m convinced BPT is the flood capital of America now.

I’ve been thinking this for a while now haha

[unome]

WPC is doing "Storm Summary" updates for this event.

You can find previous ones here https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/discuss.shtml

This is the link for "Latest" https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

they have some places listed in the wrong state

[djmike]

Looks like latest qpf is targeting the golden triangle area again but with less rain. Thank goodness. We do t need any more.

[jasons2k]

So for days and days, overnight Wed and into Thursday was supposed to be the 'main event' as the low lifted out. And now we get to Thursday....and today looks relatively dry. Just goes to show these events hardy every go as expected, play by play.

[jasons2k]

From Jeff:

Wet weather pattern will continue into the weekend and early next week.

Slow moving upper level trough over the central plains this morning with a strong upper level ridge of high pressure located over the southeast US. Moisture will return to the area today and increase on Friday and Saturday as the SE US ridge attempts to build west. Moisture channel will extend from the western Caribbean Sea into SW LA and SE TX Friday into Saturday.

Radar is showing no activity this morning for the first time in 4 days as the local air mass has been stabilized by all the recent thunderstorm activity. Expect some heating and modest moisture return today that may yield enough destabilization for a few scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon over the region, although not expecting much.

As the deep moisture axis over SC and SW LA begins to shift westward on Friday rain chances will increase from the east into the afternoon hours. Some of the storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, but expect the activity to be generally scattered and widespread heavy rainfall is not expected.

Moisture axis continues to shift westward on Saturday with much of the area falling within the axis. Expect again showers and thunderstorms to develop with heating and fairly widespread coverage on Saturday. Heavy rainfall will be possible, but once again widespread heavy rains are not expected.

Ridge of high pressure tries to build into the area from the east late in the weekend, but does not look to gain full control of our local weather and a continued SE flow of moisture will maintain a fairly moist and unstable air mass into early next week. With heating, daily showers and thunderstorms can be expected, but coverage similar to our normal summer pattern.

Hydro:

Watersheds continue to fall this morning, with most near or back within banks. Area rivers will continue to rise into the weekend before cresting and falling. Not expecting additional rainfall over the next few days to create any additional flooding on area watersheds.

Tropics:

Sub-tropical area of low pressure is expected to develop near Bermuda over the next 48 hours and will likely become the first named storm of 2021. A reminder that hurricane season starts in just over a week.

[jasons2k]

Just being honest, I think the clear radar and slightly lower PWATS is lulling some into a false sense that today will be a non-event.
The sun is about to hit in full force today after this mixes out. These are the kinds of days that make me a little nervous, actually.

[don]

We'll need to watch that plume of tropical moisture over the next couple of days. As precipitable waters will be increasing again to above 2 inches, and the atmosphere will have plenty of time to destabilize again.Localized flooding cannot be ruled out as these setups can be "sneaky" sometimes.

[jasons2k]

Keeping an eye on that band developing on the eastside from Crosby down towards Kemah. You can see the plume of moisture on the visible satellite stretching into the gulf. I'm concerned a hefty band is gonna setup today from that. One inhibiting factor could be all the cirrus overhead getting sucked-in from the blob that won't go away. The early morning visible loops can provide a lot of clues about how the day will go.

[tireman4]

The ingredients are still there, as Jason alluded to.

[Cromagnum]

That is a huge blob of convection down towards Brownsville.

[Rip76]

What is everyone using for radar these days?

[don]

We need to keep an eye on that convection, as mesoscale and global models are showing a tropical disturbance forming from that and moving inland into southeast Texas tomorrow afternoon or evening.And are hinting at training possibly taking place.

[don]

Thinking about it now this is probably the same system the GFS was developing several days ago into a tropical depression.