May 2021:
Very heavy rain here at A&M. Evidently light rain at home.
No hail here, but lots of wind and rain.
Message: NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-TX1261A05769F8.SevereThunderstormWarning.1261A05777A4TX.HGXSVRHGX.589148d75cacc57ce36cd20d969fe874 from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent: 16:10 CDT on 05-11-2021
Effective: 16:10 CDT on 05-11-2021
Expires: 16:45 CDT on 05-11-2021
Event: Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Alert:
The National Weather Service in League City has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northwestern Grimes County in southeastern Texas...
East central Burleson County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Brazos County in southeastern Texas...
* Until 445 PM CDT.
* At 410 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near College
Station, moving east at 25 mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.
* Locations impacted include...
College Station, Millican, Kyle Field, Wellborn and Carlos.
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
Instructions: For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.
Target Area:
Brazos
Burleson
Grimes
Message: NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-TX1261A05769F8.SevereThunderstormWarning.1261A05777A4TX.HGXSVRHGX.589148d75cacc57ce36cd20d969fe874 from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent: 16:10 CDT on 05-11-2021
Effective: 16:10 CDT on 05-11-2021
Expires: 16:45 CDT on 05-11-2021
Event: Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Alert:
The National Weather Service in League City has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northwestern Grimes County in southeastern Texas...
East central Burleson County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Brazos County in southeastern Texas...
* Until 445 PM CDT.
* At 410 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near College
Station, moving east at 25 mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.
* Locations impacted include...
College Station, Millican, Kyle Field, Wellborn and Carlos.
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
Instructions: For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.
Target Area:
Brazos
Burleson
Grimes
Mesoscale Discussion 0595
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0437 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021
Areas affected...East-central Texas and far southwest Louisiana
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 164...
Valid 112137Z - 112300Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 164
continues.
SUMMARY...Severe storms in east-central Texas may move out of watch
164 in the next few hours.
DISCUSSION...The strongest storms within watch 164 are moving into
Trinity county, Texas at 2130Z. The environment downstream of this
ongoing activity remains favorable with 1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and
effective shear around 35 to 40 knots per SPC mesoanalysis. In
addition, this activity is located near a warm frontal boundary.
Locally backed winds near this boundary are increasing low-level
SRH. The KPOE VWP can be used as a proxy for this low-level shear
profile and it is showing 0-1 SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2 and flow
around 2km has increased to around 45 knots. Therefore, a localized
tornado threat will exist near this warm front over the next few
hours as these storms move across east-central Texas.
In addition, given the favorable downstream environment, this
activity may persist east of watch 164 and a downstream watch may be
needed across portions of southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana.
..Bentley/Hart.. 05/11/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0437 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021
Areas affected...East-central Texas and far southwest Louisiana
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 164...
Valid 112137Z - 112300Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 164
continues.
SUMMARY...Severe storms in east-central Texas may move out of watch
164 in the next few hours.
DISCUSSION...The strongest storms within watch 164 are moving into
Trinity county, Texas at 2130Z. The environment downstream of this
ongoing activity remains favorable with 1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and
effective shear around 35 to 40 knots per SPC mesoanalysis. In
addition, this activity is located near a warm frontal boundary.
Locally backed winds near this boundary are increasing low-level
SRH. The KPOE VWP can be used as a proxy for this low-level shear
profile and it is showing 0-1 SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2 and flow
around 2km has increased to around 45 knots. Therefore, a localized
tornado threat will exist near this warm front over the next few
hours as these storms move across east-central Texas.
In addition, given the favorable downstream environment, this
activity may persist east of watch 164 and a downstream watch may be
needed across portions of southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana.
..Bentley/Hart.. 05/11/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...
- Attachments
-
I may actually get more than 3 drops in Beaumont finally. Yippee!
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
3-7 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
and
8-14 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... hreats.php
looking like more precip in the forecast
and
8-14 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... hreats.php
looking like more precip in the forecast
Haha
- Attachments
-
Uh oh. May get more than I bargained for in Beaumont. Feast or famine.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Not a drop here in Cypress. Got re6dark and windy, then poof.....nothing.
I blame my neighbor who decided to put on their sprinklers.
I blame my neighbor who decided to put on their sprinklers.
Got a whole 0.11”
I don’t really think I’m going to get anything from this event here in Wharton. All good though. Don’t need any rain. By the looks of it, we could all be flooded out by next week:
That’s one heck of rain signal from the CPC directly over southeast TX.
That’s one heck of rain signal from the CPC directly over southeast TX.
Huge temperature drop with some nasty looking clouds. No rain but a lot of wind. Looks like an outflow blew by and storms formed just a mile or two SE of me.
Guess that’ll bout do it for today. Nada here either in the west burbs. Line looked to be holding together, but I think the outflow boundary got out ahead and basically shut it down. Always amazed how that seems to occur often. I’ll take the temp and humidity drop. Sprinklers on.
In no way wanting for a flood, but I’m going to hedge on decent rain over the weekend.
In no way wanting for a flood, but I’m going to hedge on decent rain over the weekend.
Not counting on anything until this weekend now. All the heavy stuff is offshore.
-
Iceresistance
- Posts: 578
- Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:48 pm
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
- Contact:
The WPC is showing a LOT of rainfall in the Southern Plains in the next 7 days!
We'll see.
Got 0.83 inches in CLL out of the front and impulses. Less than expected, but better than nothing.
FXUS64 KHGX 121129
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
629 AM CDT Wed May 12 2021
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
Storms have pushed off the coast, but still a tricky forecast this
cycle. Some showers may crop up yet this morning into the
afternoon, but primary impact will be CIGs. High IFR/Low MVFR now,
should see slow, gradual rise in stratus bases to high MVFR/low
VFR along with gusty NNE winds. This evening, winds veer just a
bit to more northeasterly and decrease in speed. Unclear how deep
incoming dry air will be, so play it safe for now and bring back
MVFR stratus overnight.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 357 AM CDT Wed May 12 2021/...
.DISCUSSION...
Rain showers have not yet come to an end across Southeast Texas,
but their intensity has waned some early this morning, with
rainfall rates so far staying at or below half an inch per hour.
Because of this, we have canceled the flash flood watch for
Houston, Trinity, and Polk counties.
As lift along the frontal surface aloft will still be able to
manage some elevated convection, we can expect showers and storms
to continue into today, but gradually wind down - coming to an end
from northwest to southeast this afternoon into the early evening.
We can expect fairer weather to prevail until the end of the week,
when another front makes its way into the region. This will
provide us with another opportunity for showers and thunderstorms.
Like this past front, there is a strong potential for this front
to stall and only slowly make its way through the area, dragging
out potential rain chances deep into next week.
.SHORT TERM [Through Thursday Night]...
Water vapor and upper air analysis suggest a couple very subtle
shortwave troughs will be passing overhead. On top of that, we can
see additional support for upward motion thanks to divergence
aloft in the right entrance region of the exiting upper jet.
Despite the surface front itself, these lingering supporting
features are likely helping to drive a handful of showers across
the area very early this morning - and until these disturbances
move off, the jet streak exits stage right, and the frontal
surface just aloft follows its surface accompaniment offshore, we
shouldn`t expect rain to be totally over - just mostly over.
That said, new HRRR data is coming in pretty dry, with barely
anything to speak of for rainfall after 12Z. I`ve chosen to be a
little bit conservative and drag slight chance to chance PoPs out
through the afternoon for most to give everything a chance to
clear out and have deeper offshore flow set up to scour out the
last remnants of this event. Besides - in a situation in which
convection allowing models have not performed terribly well, I`m
not too excited to put a lot of stock in a deterministic model
run. The 00Z HREF still suggests a parting shot of rain, locally
heavy, late this morning along the coast before rain totally
comes to an end. I can`t say I necessarily buy this fully either,
but it does highlight the breadth of possibilities and amount of
disagreement in the models for just the next several hours.
Given that current activity isn`t super intimidating, I tend to
favor a continuation of that through much of the day. By mid-day
up north around B/CS and Madisonville, and by evening at the
coast, things should be pretty much done. Modestly drier and
cooler air looks to filter in tonight, letting at least the inland
portion of the area get pleasantly cool. Things will be iffier as
you get coastward, and down here in Galveston County, I am
resigned to missing out on most of the nice dry air.
Thursday will see the return of high pressure and a clearing sky
from north to south, allowing the return of fair weather. Of
course, given the lack of cold advection and a clear sky in mid-
May...expect temperatures to bounce right back into the 70s across
Southeast Texas, and threatening 80 degree highs in the coastal
plain. Sorry, y`all.
.LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]...
The surface high pressure will begin to slide to the east on Friday
and onshore flow will return by the evening. This will help to
increase temperatures and moisture through the weekend. Daytime
highs will remain in the 80s, but overnight lows will creep back
into the 70s by Sunday night.
By Saturday and Sunday, an upper-level low over the Pacific
Northwest will push south and is expected to become a cutoff low
over California as the jet stream splits. Meanwhile, Central CONUS
will be in a broad ridge and wedged between another upper-level
trough over the Mid-Atlantic. Global models show a weak
trough/shortwave developing in the broad ridge over the Central US
with a low pressure trying to develop over the Central Plains and a
messy cold front stretching as far south as the Gulf Coast.
Therefore, rain chances will begin to increase on Sunday as this
front approaches from the west. As the front loses upper-level
support from the jet stream and the upper-level flow becomes more
zonal, models disagree on how to treat this front Monday onwards.
However, most global models and blends still show rain chances
continuing through midweek next week. Therefore, generic PoPs (20-
30%) are predicted for Monday onwards until models come to more of a
consensus.
Got 0.83 inches in CLL out of the front and impulses. Less than expected, but better than nothing.
FXUS64 KHGX 121129
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
629 AM CDT Wed May 12 2021
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
Storms have pushed off the coast, but still a tricky forecast this
cycle. Some showers may crop up yet this morning into the
afternoon, but primary impact will be CIGs. High IFR/Low MVFR now,
should see slow, gradual rise in stratus bases to high MVFR/low
VFR along with gusty NNE winds. This evening, winds veer just a
bit to more northeasterly and decrease in speed. Unclear how deep
incoming dry air will be, so play it safe for now and bring back
MVFR stratus overnight.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 357 AM CDT Wed May 12 2021/...
.DISCUSSION...
Rain showers have not yet come to an end across Southeast Texas,
but their intensity has waned some early this morning, with
rainfall rates so far staying at or below half an inch per hour.
Because of this, we have canceled the flash flood watch for
Houston, Trinity, and Polk counties.
As lift along the frontal surface aloft will still be able to
manage some elevated convection, we can expect showers and storms
to continue into today, but gradually wind down - coming to an end
from northwest to southeast this afternoon into the early evening.
We can expect fairer weather to prevail until the end of the week,
when another front makes its way into the region. This will
provide us with another opportunity for showers and thunderstorms.
Like this past front, there is a strong potential for this front
to stall and only slowly make its way through the area, dragging
out potential rain chances deep into next week.
.SHORT TERM [Through Thursday Night]...
Water vapor and upper air analysis suggest a couple very subtle
shortwave troughs will be passing overhead. On top of that, we can
see additional support for upward motion thanks to divergence
aloft in the right entrance region of the exiting upper jet.
Despite the surface front itself, these lingering supporting
features are likely helping to drive a handful of showers across
the area very early this morning - and until these disturbances
move off, the jet streak exits stage right, and the frontal
surface just aloft follows its surface accompaniment offshore, we
shouldn`t expect rain to be totally over - just mostly over.
That said, new HRRR data is coming in pretty dry, with barely
anything to speak of for rainfall after 12Z. I`ve chosen to be a
little bit conservative and drag slight chance to chance PoPs out
through the afternoon for most to give everything a chance to
clear out and have deeper offshore flow set up to scour out the
last remnants of this event. Besides - in a situation in which
convection allowing models have not performed terribly well, I`m
not too excited to put a lot of stock in a deterministic model
run. The 00Z HREF still suggests a parting shot of rain, locally
heavy, late this morning along the coast before rain totally
comes to an end. I can`t say I necessarily buy this fully either,
but it does highlight the breadth of possibilities and amount of
disagreement in the models for just the next several hours.
Given that current activity isn`t super intimidating, I tend to
favor a continuation of that through much of the day. By mid-day
up north around B/CS and Madisonville, and by evening at the
coast, things should be pretty much done. Modestly drier and
cooler air looks to filter in tonight, letting at least the inland
portion of the area get pleasantly cool. Things will be iffier as
you get coastward, and down here in Galveston County, I am
resigned to missing out on most of the nice dry air.
Thursday will see the return of high pressure and a clearing sky
from north to south, allowing the return of fair weather. Of
course, given the lack of cold advection and a clear sky in mid-
May...expect temperatures to bounce right back into the 70s across
Southeast Texas, and threatening 80 degree highs in the coastal
plain. Sorry, y`all.
.LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]...
The surface high pressure will begin to slide to the east on Friday
and onshore flow will return by the evening. This will help to
increase temperatures and moisture through the weekend. Daytime
highs will remain in the 80s, but overnight lows will creep back
into the 70s by Sunday night.
By Saturday and Sunday, an upper-level low over the Pacific
Northwest will push south and is expected to become a cutoff low
over California as the jet stream splits. Meanwhile, Central CONUS
will be in a broad ridge and wedged between another upper-level
trough over the Mid-Atlantic. Global models show a weak
trough/shortwave developing in the broad ridge over the Central US
with a low pressure trying to develop over the Central Plains and a
messy cold front stretching as far south as the Gulf Coast.
Therefore, rain chances will begin to increase on Sunday as this
front approaches from the west. As the front loses upper-level
support from the jet stream and the upper-level flow becomes more
zonal, models disagree on how to treat this front Monday onwards.
However, most global models and blends still show rain chances
continuing through midweek next week. Therefore, generic PoPs (20-
30%) are predicted for Monday onwards until models come to more of a
consensus.
Yeah, we’ll see. I was supposed to get a couple inches this week and saw 0.11”
That flash flood watch was more like a “flash flood what?”
I’m not complaining though. The pool company is getting their builds in this week, moving us up in line.
That flash flood watch was more like a “flash flood what?”
I’m not complaining though. The pool company is getting their builds in this week, moving us up in line.
Sunday is beginning to look quite interesting.
Yes it sure is..., the GFS is starting to pick up on the potential for excessive rainfall this Sunday similar to what the EURO has been showing the last few runs.
And then there's fantasyland on Sunday May 23rd...
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Next week looks very wet across the state as models are showing a trough becoming negatively tilted next week.Severe weather also looks to be a issue. But models are still not in agreement on where the main storm track will be. The GFS has the main upper level low in the panhandle and ejects it into the central plains.Which keeps the main storm track also north of here across North Texas and Oklahoma.While the EURO has the trough in the same general location it ejects the trough more to the south across the southern plains instead,which pushes many disturbances from central Texas into southeast Texas next week. We'll have to watch the trends to see how everything may play out over the next few days.