April 2021

[Cpv17]

Basically all of the models at 12z show a significant system coming into the state this coming week but most of the rain stays along the the I-35 corridor and into the hill country. Shows about 1” for SE Texas.

[unome]

just a reminder to get off the pitty party if you didn't get enough rain & get out & stock up on suplies if you can while the tax holiday is still in effect - stay safe y'all...

https://twitter.com/ReadyHarris/status/ ... 5274022915

Emergency Preparation Supplies Sales Tax Holiday starts TODAY! Use this time to stock your emergency kits and get #Ready4Anything. See more here: http://bit.ly/2JinDiq
#ReadyRoundtheClock

[DoctorMu]

.

[Cpv17]

Well guys, at least we were treated to a beautiful weekend. We’ll all get some rain eventually and in my personal experience after all the crazy weather we’ve had the past few years, it’ll
probably come in the form of a flood. Seems like every dry period around here lately seems to end in a flood. My guess is something in the second half of May or early June.

[TXWeatherMan]

Well guys, at least we were treated to a beautiful weekend. We’ll all get some rain eventually and in my personal experience after all the crazy weather we’ve had the past few years, it’ll
probably come in the form of a flood. Seems like every dry period around here lately seems to end in a flood. My guess is something in the second half of May or early June.

Probably an early season disorganized tropical system

[Cpv17]

This looks pretty good. Guess we’ll see.

[Cromagnum]

I see the freeze did absolutely nothing to the bugs. Love bugs are all over the highway, and both junebugs and sod webworms are out in force already to destroy lawns.

[Cromagnum]

This looks pretty good. Guess we’ll see.

Boy, that looked a lot better the other day. Went from ~2 inches down to 0.1

[Cpv17]

This looks pretty good. Guess we’ll see.

Boy, that looked a lot better the other day. Went from ~2 inches down to 0.1

Yeah, no kidding.

[weatherguy425]

This looks pretty good. Guess we’ll see.

Boy, that looked a lot better the other day. Went from ~2 inches down to 0.1

Yeah, no kidding.

Y’all may miss the heftier rain... but check the dates on that graphic.

[djmike]

QPF! Then I saw the dates. Lol. First thing I thought of when it pulled up was that looks like a tropical storm or hurricane track. Well it probably is but the dates are wrong!
Also for a minute I thought man thats a complete 180 in one update. Anyway, they will probably fix it shortly.

[djmike]

Its been changed and were back to <0.25”.
Oh its gonna be a looooong summer.

[don]

12z EURO came in pretty wet, while the GFS is much drier over the area.Models are still struggling on how to handle the upper level low over the sate this week.There is a big difference in the qpf amounts the models are projecting currently over the area.

[JDsGN]

12z EURO came in pretty wet, while the GFS is much drier over the area.Models are still struggling on how to handle the upper level low over the sate this week.There is a big difference in the qpf amounts the models are projecting currently over the area.

I'm going to put my money on the GFS... Prove me wrong upper level low!

[Cpv17]

Another Euro vs GFS battle lol go Euro!! At least this time

[Cromagnum]

Yikes. If the models differ that much for rain I don't look forward to cane season models.

[don]

The GFS has caved towards the EURO.All of the global models are now showing the cutoff low slowly moving across the state.Still have to iron out qpf amounts though which are very hard to pinpoint with these setups.As a lot of it is driven by mesoscale features with this kind of setup.But a good trend overnight non the less.

[Cpv17]

The GFS has caved towards the EURO.All of the global models are now showing the cutoff low slowly moving across the state.Still have to iron out qpf amounts though which are very hard to pinpoint with these setups.As a lot of it is driven by mesoscale features with this kind of setup.But a good trend overnight non the less.

There’s still a lot of difference between the Euro and GFS in regards to qpf amounts.

[don]

The GFS has caved towards the EURO.All of the global models are now showing the cutoff low slowly moving across the state.Still have to iron out qpf amounts though which are very hard to pinpoint with these setups.As a lot of it is driven by mesoscale features with this kind of setup.But a good trend overnight non the less.

There’s still a lot of difference between the Euro and GFS in regards to qpf amounts.

Yep, the WPC's discussion this morning has a good summary on why there's a difference in general qpf amounts over the area.The potential is there for some to get excessive rainfall with this setup, but its nearly impossible to pinpoint this far out where those locations may be due to the mesocale driven nature of the setup.

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Wed Apr 28 2021

Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Apr 30 2021 - 12Z Sat May 01 2021

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM PARTS OF
SOUTHERN/EASTERN TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA...

The upper level low over northern Mexico/southern High Plains
should remain rather stationary over the region during the day 3
period/Friday while a surface boundary is draped along the Gulf
Coast and back into far south Texas. Anomalous moisture will be
advected east of the upper low pooling along the boundary to fuel
numerous showers and thunderstorms capable of producing locally
heavy rainfall. The latest 00z guidance shows some differences in
frontal placement, especially across far eastern/coastal Texas
with some potential the heaviest QPF stays offshore completely.
Just given the overall setup favorable for locally heavy to
excessive rains, a marginal risk was drawn across southern/eastern
Texas into northern and central Louisiana but the model
uncertainty precludes the inclusion of anything more than just a
marginal at this time.

Santorelli

[Cromagnum]

"Points South of I-10" need to be the target this time.