Tropical Depression Bonnie forms 5:15 PM 7/22/2010

[ticka1]

Changed the title to reflect the lastest info put out by the NHC:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1224.shtml

000
ABNT20 KNHC 221224
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
825 AM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE THE DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BAHAMAS INDICATE
THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A CLOSED CIRCULATION HAS FORMED.
ADVISORIES ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM WILL BE
INITIATED AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC TODAY. THIS ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
INCLUDE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT
REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO IN A DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS

[srainhoutx]

[Scott747]

First guess on track by the NHC is something inline with the TVCN model. Haven't seen a recent update to the in house OFCL.

Range should be NO to Upper Texas Coast with Tx/La border to Central La. being the early target area.

[srainhoutx]

Becoming a bit better organized as convection fires to the W now...

[wxman57]

Not much time to post. Based on the strength of the ridge to its north, I think I'll go fill up a few 5-gal gas cans for my generators when I get home today.

[MRG93415]

Not much time to post. Based on the strength of the ridge to its north, I think I'll go fill up a few 5-gal gas cans for my generators when I get home today.

WXMAN you being serious or just playing around??? I was gonna go to the beach this weekend....

[tireman4]

Meaning..always be prepared during the season or be prepared for something down the line?

[MRG93415]

Meaning..always be prepared during the season or be prepared for something down the line?

Well crude, I guess I will hold off until next weekend then just in case....Thanks

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
1100 AM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

THE TROPICAL WAVE/DISTURBANCE THAT NHC HAS BEEN TRACKING FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED A SURFACE
CIRCULATION AND ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE DEPRESSION IS SHEARED AT THIS TIME AND ITS
CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED
CONVECTIVE BAND. THE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE RELAXING A
LITTLE...HOWEVER...AS INDICATED BY THE MOTION OF THE HIGH CLOUDS ON
HIGH RESOLUTION IMAGES. THE CYCLONE IS STILL INTERACTING WITH A
STRONG WESTWARD-MOVING UPPER LOW TO THE WEST. THIS PATTERN WOULD
ONLY ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE AS INDICATED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT THIS FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. IN FACT...
NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.

BECAUSE THE CENTER JUST FORMED...THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN.
THE BEST ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13
KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A WELL-ESTABLISHED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 3 TO 4 DAYS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND THE KEYS AND THEN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. BECAUSE THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO
INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
THROUGH 4 OR 5 DAYS...ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS WEAKEN THE CYCLONE
EARLIER.

AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL BE IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL HELP
TO DETERMINE IF THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/1500Z 21.9N 75.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 23/0000Z 22.6N 76.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 23/1200Z 23.8N 80.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 24/0000Z 25.0N 83.2W 40 KT
48HR VT 24/1200Z 26.0N 86.5W 40 KT
72HR VT 25/1200Z 28.0N 91.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 26/1200Z 31.0N 94.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 27/1200Z 33.0N 95.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS

[srainhoutx]

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD INCLUDING THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND
FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO
BONITA BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO JUPITER INLET INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD INCLUDING
THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO BONITA BEACH

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO JUPITER INLET
INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

[Scott747]

As suspected the track is close to the TVCN.

Steve...

Haven't checked the POD for the next few days. How many NOAA flights do they have planned?

[tireman4]

Here we go.......this will be a roller coaster few days.

[srainhoutx]

As suspected the track is close to the TVCN.

Steve...

Haven't checked the POD for the next few days. How many NOAA flights do they have planned?

FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 23/0000Z
B. NOAA9 03BBA SURV
C. 22/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT



WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT THU 22 JULY 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z JULY 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-052

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 75
A. 23/1500, 1800, 2100Z
B. AFXXX 0503A CYCLONE
C. 23/1200Z
D. 24.1N 80.8W
E. 23/1430Z TO 23/2100Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 24/0000Z
B. NOAA9 0603A CYCLONE
C. 23/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 76
A. 24/0000, 0300, 0600Z
B. AFXXX 0703A CYCLONE
C. 23/2130Z
D. 25.0.0N 83.2.0W
E. 23/2300Z TO 24/0600Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 77
A. 24/0900, 1200, 1500Z
B. AFXXX 0803A CYCLONE
C. 24/0700Z
D. 25.7N 85.6W
E. 24/0800Z TO 24/1500Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 3-HRLY FIXES.

[ronyan]

Wow, I didn't think we'd have it this soon. It looks like we are well within the "cone"! Although they do only forecast a moderate TS with 50 mph winds, it's too bad intensity forecasts can be so problematic.

[tireman4]

From Air Force Met on another channel. He is seriously busy right now as is Wxman57:

TUTT's are always badly forecated by the models. One does better by simply observing it for a time and making their own forecast. I think it will back far enough away by Saturday to allow for some development....maybe to a Cat 1. It could make a run at Cat 2 as it nears the coast...but I think the upper winds and the heat content are going to make that difficult.

[Scott747]

As suspected the track is close to the TVCN.

Steve...

Haven't checked the POD for the next few days. How many NOAA flights do they have planned?

FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 23/0000Z
B. NOAA9 03BBA SURV
C. 22/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

Do they have one in the air today?

The 12z runs should have all the data from yesterdays mission and we should at least see some better guidance. Not sure how much made it into the 0z and 6z runs.

Plus the initialization plots should be better.

[srainhoutx]

Not that I see RE: G-IV today. The only other I see possible is 00Z on the 24th...

A POSSIBLE G-IV MISSION FOR 24/0000Z

FYI: RECON is enroute. Last ob was 163 Mile SSW of Panama City. Stepping out for a while.

[biggerbyte]

Well, isn't that special. Tyler, where are you, Buddy.

Friends, we are starting to get the where. Now we watch the how much. Let me just say that all of you should prepare for anything from a minimal tropical storm, to a Cat. 1 or 2 Hurricane. We will know more about that on Friday. Impact will depend on exactly where it makes landfall, and of course strength.

iWatch is in effect...

[ticka1]

Going to be crazy around here for the next few days and a busy weekend. Once it gets into the GOM - I think all eyes will be on TD3 or Bonnie - whatever it is.....

Time to prepared is NOW.

[singlemom]

I know it's the Canadian model, but did anyone catch this 12z run? Another system following 97L like a one, two punch:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation