February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Post Reply
869MB
Posts: 194
Joined: Fri Oct 30, 2015 8:44 am
Location: Katy, TX
Contact:
Contact 869MB

HRRR Sounding 01Z Run - Valid 07Z.png
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Top
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5847
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:
Contact jasons2k

In response to some friends on S2K:

I'm glad some of y'all are enjoying the snow. I hope we get some on Thursday as a parting shot. It's looking a little better on the HRRR.

In the meantime, I am closely watching temperature trends for the ice storm about to impact SE and East Texas. It's going to be just epic for some folks to the North and especially NE of here. We are right on the edge. A serious demarcation between ice and rain, and thus, the accumulation totals. The HRRR keeps going back and forth between a little ice nuisance and the ice storm apocalypse for me in southern Montgomery County, so it's just waiting and watching the temperature/dew point spread until it starts falling down over here.
Top
User avatar
don
Posts: 3066
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Wichita Falls
Contact:
Contact don

FWIW the 0z GFS looks similar to the 0z NAM showing heavy freezing rain down to I-10. I don't like how low the dewpoint still is,when rain starts temps are going to easily fall below freezing unless the dewpoint starts to rise over the next several hours.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Top
Cpv17
Posts: 6522
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:
Contact Cpv17

don wrote: ↑Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:05 pm FWIW the 0z GFS looks similar to the 0z NAM showing heavy freezing rain down to I-10. I don't like how low the dewpoint still is,when rain starts temps are going to easily fall below freezing unless the dewpoint starts to rise over the next several hours.
My dew point is 22° here temp is 29°.
Top
megsy
Posts: 19
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2011 10:26 pm
Location: South Katy
Contact:
Contact megsy

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 16, 2021 11:04 pm
don wrote: ↑Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:05 pm FWIW the 0z GFS looks similar to the 0z NAM showing heavy freezing rain down to I-10. I don't like how low the dewpoint still is,when rain starts temps are going to easily fall below freezing unless the dewpoint starts to rise over the next several hours.
My dew point is 22° here temp is 29°.
22 here too (was at 19 a couple hours ago) and temp at 32.
Top
Andrew
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 3497
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:46 pm
Location: North-West Houston
Contact:
Contact Andrew

Hey everyone, been a busy couple of days. How is everyone doing? I hope those without power have found ways to stay warm! We just need to get through Thursday and we should be in the clear.
For Your Infinite Source For All Things Weather Visit Our Facebook
Top
Sloth
Posts: 8
Joined: Sat Feb 13, 2021 6:05 pm
Contact:
Contact Sloth

Andrew wrote: ↑Tue Feb 16, 2021 11:40 pm Hey everyone, been a busy couple of days. How is everyone doing? I hope those without power have found ways to stay warm! We just need to get through Thursday and we should be in the clear.
Doing good. Making al pastor tacos in the backyard. Electricity is on, but I'll take no chances to miss a warm meal once the power goes out again :D
Top
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5847
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:
Contact jasons2k

The coast has warmed significantly. Look at Galveston and Bolivar - in the 40's, while areas to the NW are below freezing. As the low deepens, the temperature gradient will deepen too.
Last edited by jasons2k on Wed Feb 17, 2021 12:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
Top
tsb2107
Posts: 27
Joined: Fri Feb 04, 2011 12:41 am
Location: Spring
Contact:
Contact tsb2107

jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Feb 17, 2021 12:21 am The coast has warmed significantly. Look at Galveston and Bolivar - in the 40's, while areas to the NW are below freezing. As the low deepens, the temperature gradient will deepen.
Spring here...does this mean a small window for freezing rain for the northern parts of the county?
Top
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5847
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:
Contact jasons2k

tsb2107 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 17, 2021 12:28 am
jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Feb 17, 2021 12:21 am The coast has warmed significantly. Look at Galveston and Bolivar - in the 40's, while areas to the NW are below freezing. As the low deepens, the temperature gradient will deepen.
Spring here...does this mean a small window for freezing rain for the northern parts of the county?
If you mean Harris county, it depends on how far east or west you are. The line is generally along 59, but with the low where it is, it has a steep arc to it.
Top
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5847
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:
Contact jasons2k

Pretty amazing..steep temp gradient already
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Top
tsb2107
Posts: 27
Joined: Fri Feb 04, 2011 12:41 am
Location: Spring
Contact:
Contact tsb2107

Been holding steady at 34 for the last couple of hours.
Top
Andrew
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 3497
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:46 pm
Location: North-West Houston
Contact:
Contact Andrew

Sloth wrote: ↑Wed Feb 17, 2021 12:00 am
Andrew wrote: ↑Tue Feb 16, 2021 11:40 pm Hey everyone, been a busy couple of days. How is everyone doing? I hope those without power have found ways to stay warm! We just need to get through Thursday and we should be in the clear.
Doing good. Making al pastor tacos in the backyard. Electricity is on, but I'll take no chances to miss a warm meal once the power goes out again :D
Glad you are doing well Sloth. Get your grub on haha. Hopefully, we will be closer to normal this weekend.
For Your Infinite Source For All Things Weather Visit Our Facebook
Top
Andrew
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 3497
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:46 pm
Location: North-West Houston
Contact:
Contact Andrew

Sitting at 33/32 here NW of the loop. Dewpoints have risen several degrees. Looks like I will be right on the line of freezing rain versus cold rain.
For Your Infinite Source For All Things Weather Visit Our Facebook
Top
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 7072
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:
Contact DoctorMu

25 degrees. Freezing rain, sleet, snow mix. Hello black ice!

Rolling blackouts continue.
Last edited by DoctorMu on Wed Feb 17, 2021 1:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
Top
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5847
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:
Contact jasons2k

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Wed Feb 17, 2021 1:41 am 25 degrees. Freezing rain, sleet, snow mix. Help black one!

Rolling blackouts continue.
And so it begins - good luck. 32.2 here, dew point 25. The gap is closing...
Top
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5847
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:
Contact jasons2k

Power out
Top
User avatar
snowman65
Posts: 1331
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 6:39 am
Location: Orange, Tx
Contact:
Contact snowman65

I don't know about everyone else but I'm ready to close the books on this past 4 days.
Top
BlueJay
Posts: 938
Joined: Tue Mar 04, 2014 10:47 am
Location: Alden Bridge-The Woodlands, Texas
Contact:
Contact BlueJay

snowman65 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 17, 2021 7:34 am I don't know about everyone else but I'm ready to close the books on this past 4 days.
Me Too!
Top
Kingwood36
Posts: 1592
Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
Location: Freeport
Contact:
Contact Kingwood36

I thought I'd NEVER say this...but...is it summer yet?
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Weather Forum”

  • Information