Invest 98L Bay of Campeche

[srainhoutx]

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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2010, DB, O, 2010072118, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982010
AL, 98, 2010072118, , BEST, 0, 200N, 928W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[srainhoutx]

Latest...should be inland S of Tampico in about 24 hours or so...para GFS has suggested this could be a TD/TS prior to landfall...

[Scott747]

GFS ftw!

Who says to ignore the models.

Both the operational and parallel have been more bullish on this area than 97l. Figured it would move inland before having much time to do much but not that surprised to see the invest status.

[srainhoutx]

Updated...

AL, 98, 2010072118, , BEST, 0, 200N, 927W, 20, 1008, DB

[Scott747]

Both the parallel and operational don't exactly move it that quickly.

[Scott747]

Hopefully the GFDL and HWRF will have something at 18z.

[srainhoutx]

Both the parallel and operational don't exactly move it that quickly.

True. I believe I saw several runs where this was stationary for almost 36 hour offshore of Tampico. I actually remember about 10 days ago when the para gfs was suggesting very slow movement to the N along the MX coast.

[Scott747]

Both the parallel and operational don't exactly move it that quickly.

True. I believe I saw several runs where this was stationary for almost 36 hour offshore of Tampico. I actually remember about 10 days ago when the para gfs was suggesting very slow movement to the N along the MX coast.

Yeah this is that one that the Jorge (wxmx on Eastern) had been talking about for a few weeks.

Does look decent. Who knows we might get a orange out of it at 7 given it's easily within 48 hrs of making landfall.

[srainhoutx]

This area of the W Gulf is likely the 'hotspot' for potential development (little/no shear) right now compared with the rest of the Basin. Certainly will enhance rain chances around the local area.

[srainhoutx]

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW BEFORE IT
REACHES THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Ptarmigan]

It would be funny if it was Bonnie and Clyde. I know its Bonnie and Colin.

[srainhoutx]

Early tracks...

[wxman57]

Not much to discuss track-wise. This system is moving inland just south of Tampico in 24 hours or so. It appears to have a broad circulation and SOME heavy convection near the center of the broad low. Could be enough time for it to become Bonnie before it moves ashore. I'd say 50/50 on that one. Regardless, the big threat for Mexico is more heavy rain. Maybe 5-10 inches in Tampico, a city already hit hard by heavy rain this year. Could even spread more moisture up into south Texas Fri/Sat and help to increase our rain chances, too.

[Ptarmigan]

Not much to discuss track-wise. This system is moving inland just south of Tampico in 24 hours or so. It appears to have a broad circulation and SOME heavy convection near the center of the broad low. Could be enough time for it to become Bonnie before it moves ashore. I'd say 50/50 on that one. Regardless, the big threat for Mexico is more heavy rain. Maybe 5-10 inches in Tampico, a city already hit hard by heavy rain this year. Could even spread more moisture up into south Texas Fri/Sat and help to increase our rain chances, too.

More rain for us. Going to be a wet July alright.

[Mr. T]

More rain for us. Going to be a wet July alright.

Considering its already 4th wettest I'd say we're well on our way

[srainhoutx]

Surface analysis suggests stationary this morning...now 50%...



AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT
REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO IN A DAY OR TWO.

[srainhoutx]

Latest...

[srainhoutx]

Interestingly the 12Z para GFS suggests 98L will linger offshore for another 24+ hours. Looks to make a slow approach to Tampico beyond that. We may see an upgrade before landfall with this disturbance IMO.

[texoz]

Would be funny if 98L becomes Bonnie before TD3. 98L certainly looks healthy on sat images.

[srainhoutx]

Wasn't 98L deactivated?