February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins

[don]

0z ICON now shows a legitimate ice storm for areas north of the 59 corridor on Valentines Day before the main Winter storm arrives on Monday...
And the 0z GFS isn't far off either from showing a ice storm on Valentines day with temps in the mid to low 30s with rain over the area as a weak disturbance passes through.

[friendswoodwx]

What's the problem now?

It would pull in colder deeper air and higher qpf amounts. Meaning we’d get a lot of snow.

I don’t expect a lot of snow and never have. This has a major sleet storm written all over it with snow at the end.

the air column will cool and become deeper as the event unfolds.

[Kingwood36]

Az is a roll tonight

[don]

Latest 0Z GFS would not be good if it verified, as the trough becomes negatively tilted over the state.It produce a stronger warm nose in the atmosphere and we end up with a lot of freezing rain instead of sleet.That would be a worse case scenario for southeast Texas.

[Kingwood36]

[txsnowmaker]

Realizing there’s nothing to stop it, just curious what would things be looking like precip wise if there were no coastal low, but just the trough bringing us precip chances?

[txsnowmaker]

Still plenty of sleet/snow for us according to 0z GFS...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_25.png

[Andrew]

Still plenty of sleet/snow for us according to 0z GFS...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_25.png

These maps include all frozen precipitation so you are likely looking at mostly freezing rain and sleet. The progression of the trough is a lot quicker than previous runs and not as deep. Unfortunately, if that is the case we could be looking at a huge freezing rain event.

[Kingwood36]

Still alot of time for things to change between now and monday....frank over on 2 has 50% chance of snow on Thursday

[txsnowmaker]

Yeah I’m not worried at all. Not when NWS is upping chance for precip including “snow” in the heart of Houston on Monday during the day and now evening.

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.p ... CSxy2ROLDs

[txsnowmaker]

More from Frank: “ We also are looking for a wintry mess of ice and snow Monday morning into the late afternoon.”

https://www.click2houston.com/weather/

[MontgomeryCoWx]

GFS brings more on Wednesday/Thursday

[txsnowmaker]

More from 2 (check out the graphic for 50% chance snow on Thursday next week below), including decreasing likelihood of freezing rain:

“ Monday is the day to watch! Wintry weather is a distinct possibility. Temperatures will stay at or slightly below freezing at the same time that a weather disturbance sweeps across the state. That combination will deliver a batch of precipitation in the form of sleet or snow -- or a combination of both. Freezing rain is also a possibility, although it is looking less likely as forecast temperatures continue to trend colder... Accumulating snowfall is most likely north of Houston, but an inch or so of snow in the city is certainly possible...Temperatures will remain very cold all week, with temperatures dropping below freezing most nights. Highs will hover in the 30s and 40s and another round of wintry weather is possible Wednesday night into Thursday.”

https://www.click2houston.com/resizer/h ... SNIVOY.JPG

https://www.click2houston.com/weather/2 ... e-way-out/

[Cpv17]

GFS brings more on Wednesday/Thursday

I sure hope we can get a few inches of snow for everyone in southeast Texas this time. Whether it be the Monday system or the next one.

[Kingwood36]

If Gene was still around..I wonder what his "Norman number" would be Tuesday morning

[davidiowx]

If Gene was still around..I wonder what his "Norman number" would be Tuesday morning

“Neal Page: What do you think the temperature is?”

“Del Griffith: One.”

[Rip76]

If Gene was still around..I wonder what his "Norman number" would be Tuesday morning

Wow. The “Norman Number.”

[don]

0Z EURO now onboard with the other models, with widespread wintry precipitation across southeast Texas

[harp]

0Z EURO now onboard with the other models, with widespread wintry precipitation across southeast Texas

Can you let me know if this makes it to Louisiana? Thanks.

[Andrew]

0Z EURO now onboard with the other models, with widespread wintry precipitation across southeast Texas

And it's likely still not cold enough.