Tropical Depression Bonnie forms 5:15 PM 7/22/2010

[srainhoutx]

TAFB analysis suggest a low forming in 24 hours. We shall see...

[srainhoutx]

[srainhoutx]

12Z para GFS @ 60 hours

[srainhoutx]

Steve, that map with isotachs on it above doesn't seem to agree with ground truth. I saw that and checked shore stations and airports, and found only one West wind.

Is that a modelled representation or something?

It is Ed.

[Scott747]

Steve, that map with isotachs on it above doesn't seem to agree with ground truth. I saw that and checked shore stations and airports, and found only one West wind.

Is that a modelled representation or something?

It's called -

Multi-Platform Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Analysis

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... p#MPSATWND

Link showing four plots that the graph is derived from -

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 1007201200

[srainhoutx]

That was part of my reasoning for posting the image Ed. As I mentioned last night, my concern is with Haiti and just what may lie ahead for those folks. Certainly could be a huge mess for the Port au Prince region. Latest VIS Image...

[Hardcoreweather]

NOGAPS showing 2 systems in the GOM

[srainhoutx]

Hardcoreweather. You have been asked twice by private message and now twice in open forum to remove your comment concerning other weather boards. Your sig has been deleted twice by the staff and now will be removed again. Upon consultaion by our MODS, if you choose to ignore and again add the comment to your signature, your account will be deactivated and an IP ban will occur. Now back on Topic.

[srainhoutx]

Interesting Update from the HPC...

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1232 PM EDT TUE JUL 20 2010



TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING NEAR THE GREAT ANTILLES/FLORIDA
STRAITS TOWARDS THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...PREFERENCE FOR A SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE 12Z NAM
THE NAM HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY QUICKER/WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER
ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE GFS HAS TRENDED STRONGER ALOFT/MORE
NORTHERLY WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER ITS PAST DAY OF
RUNS. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED SOUTHWEST/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM
OVER ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS. WHEN COMPARING THE
GUIDANCE...THE 12Z NAM IS THE QUICKEST...THE 00Z CANADIAN THE MOST
DEVELOPED...AND THE 06Z GFS THE SLOWEST. THE 16Z CONFERENCE CALL
BETWEEN NHC AND THE HPC MEDIUM RANGE DESK FAVORED SOMETHING CLOSE
TO THE 12Z NAM SOLUTION...WHICH WILL BE PREFERRED BY DEFAULT.

[Scott747]

Odd that they would be using the NAM being that it's the 'quickest' when there seems to have been little motion over the last day.

[Karen]

Question can there be a forum for just the pro mets to post. I look up to you guys for information about storms and get kinda tired of weeding through all of the duplicate posts of maps and I am REALLY tired of all of the petty bickering on this board. Please just let posters put their own personal opion. We are all adults here.
Thank You

[Hardcoreweather]

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE
EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WESTWARD TO HISPANIOLA.
ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE A CLOSED CIRCULATION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS
BECOMING BETTER DEFINED JUST NORTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF
HISPANIOLA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OR STORM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...
EASTERN CUBA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI

[TexasMetBlake]

Is anybody else suspect of a florida strike...especially a mid central florida hit? I sure thought the ridge would be stronger that is being depicted by the models. I'm going to look at the euro for further analysis. BRB.

[ticka1]

Keep hearing about this monster ridge in place over florida and SE United States - why are the models bringing it into mid-Florida coast? I can see the LA landfall - if the ridge shifts any it would follow the weakness.

Just curious that's all. Maybe by this time tomorrow we will have a named system TD3 and the models will be ingested with ore accurate data for better output.

[srainhoutx]

SHIP continues to show a weaker system...look for surprises in the 12Z Euro track...

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 201827
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1827 UTC TUE JUL 20 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972010) 20100720 1800 UTC

        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100720  1800   100721  0600   100721  1800   100722  0600

         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    19.5N  68.2W   20.1N  71.1W   20.6N  73.7W   20.6N  75.9W
BAMD    19.5N  68.2W   20.1N  70.0W   20.7N  71.9W   21.6N  73.8W
BAMM    19.5N  68.2W   20.0N  70.3W   20.6N  72.4W   21.1N  74.1W
LBAR    19.5N  68.2W   19.9N  70.4W   20.6N  73.0W   21.3N  75.5W
SHIP        30KTS          38KTS          48KTS          55KTS
DSHP        30KTS          38KTS          48KTS          55KTS

        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100722  1800   100723  1800   100724  1800   100725  1800

         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    20.9N  77.6W   22.2N  80.3W   23.8N  83.0W   25.0N  85.6W
BAMD    22.6N  75.7W   24.5N  80.1W   26.1N  85.0W   27.4N  89.3W
BAMM    22.0N  75.8W   23.8N  79.0W   25.1N  83.0W   26.1N  86.6W
LBAR    22.2N  78.0W   24.6N  83.1W   27.2N  86.9W   30.0N  88.6W
SHIP        61KTS          67KTS          69KTS          68KTS
DSHP        61KTS          54KTS          54KTS          41KTS

         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  19.5N LONCUR =  68.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  10KT
LATM12 =  19.0N LONM12 =  66.2W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 =  10KT
LATM24 =  18.8N LONM24 =  64.0W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

[ronyan]

Here we go, this system seems to be developing a nice swirl to it. I think it will TD #3 tomorrow afternoon/evening.

The models look too far north on this one, I would wait until we have a closed LLC until declaring anything based on a consensus. Remeber the TD #2 consensus was very near Freeport and then basically shifted to Brownsville overnight. I think it may hit extreme South FL and then re-emerge into the gulf but I doubt it will make it this far West.

[srainhoutx]

Euro suggests a weak system...

[Mr. T]

Interesting that the 12z Euro keeps a much stronger ridge across the SE than any other model, thus taking the storm towards S TX (seasonal trend!). GFS/CMC/NOGAPS etc. all break down the ridge enough to allow this thing to turn north into the NC Gulf. I like the Euro's idea of a possible threat to the Western Gulf as that has been the trend through the season, and the other global models are likely, once again, trying to break down the ridge across the SE erroneously. I had said this before, and it's nice to see a few pro mets on Eastern think the same thing...

Also, the GFDL and HWRF are awful. I have no idea why they think this storm should already be gaining a NW latitude at this point.

Considering the Euro's awesome performance with Alex and TD #2, it would have to be the preferred model with this situation, trackwise.

[Scott747]

Interesting that the 12z Euro keeps a much stronger ridge across the SE than any other model, thus taking the storm towards S TX (seasonal trend!). GFS/CMC/NOGAPS etc. all break down the ridge enough to allow this thing to turn north into the NC Gulf. I like the Euro's idea of a possible threat to the Western Gulf as that has been the trend through the season, and the other global models are likely, once again, trying to break down the ridge across the SE erroneously. I had said this before, and it's nice to see a few pro mets on Eastern think the same thing...

Also, the GFDL and HWRF are awful. I have no idea why they think this storm should already be gaining a NW latitude at this point.

Considering the Euro's awesome performance with Alex and TD #2, it would have to be the preferred model with this situation, trackwise.

The performance thus far of the GFDL/HWRF this season has been very much disappointing. I'm ok with the crazy and unlikely intensity forecast but could either one at least be remotely in the ballpark.

Maybe when the parallel GFS goes operational we will see some improvement which should be happening next week. Honestly though I have no idea how the present parallel GFS will be used with the hurricane models.