February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins

[txsnowmaker]

When will the short range models start that include all of Monday?

[txsnowmaker]

Remember those snow maps on tropical tidbits includes sleet,so not all of that would be snow.

I’ll settle for half of that being snow, and at least none of it is freezing rain.

[txsnowmaker]

The Canadian fwiw...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_21.png

[jasons2k]

Is there going to be wind with this system?

Yes with very cold wind chills.

[tireman4]

Remember those snow maps on tropical tidbits includes sleet,so not all of that would be snow.

I’ll settle for half of that being snow, and at least none of it is freezing rain.

As I have driven in all three precip types, I will take snow (dry is the best) over sleet. Freezing rain, yuck. At night, even worse.

[txsnowmaker]

Based on the latest models would Houston be situated between the coastal low and trough? I read in another forum that whoever falls in that sweet spot could see blizzard conditions.

[txsnowmaker]

NWS just went with “rain, snow, freezing rain, and sleet likely” (60%) for Monday night! Doubt we’ll be seeing much in the way of rain!

[don]

Yep NWS finally biting. 12z EURO is slowly but surly trending colder with each run also.At this point all of the main global models are onboard for a major winter storm on President day.If the trend continues this may end up as a once in a lifetime winter storm around here.

[vci_guy2003]

Would this be a classic Gulf effect snow?

[DoctorMu]

When the ensembles have single digits for lows in CLL...

Jeez...the second storm (next Wed/Thursday) could put a layer of snow - ice on top.

[TexasMetBlake]

12z euro is cold with a low of 15 in Houston on Tuesday AM but a high of 37 lol. Keeps everything liquid here. Storm track is further north keeping the warm nose in place. Looks very similar to a few weeks ago when College Station got snow and Houston didn't. Interesting.

[davidiowx]

That's a huge buzzkill Blake!

[vci_guy2003]

Boooo to the Euro

[MontgomeryCoWx]

That's a huge buzzkill Blake!

Meh, the Euro is out to pasture while all the rest of the models are in agreement.

Euro has sucked this week too.

[vci_guy2003]

12z euro is cold with a low of 15 in Houston on Tuesday AM but a high of 37 lol. Keeps everything liquid here. Storm track is further north keeping the warm nose in place. Looks very similar to a few weeks ago when College Station got snow and Houston didn't. Interesting.

By liquid does it mean freezing rain only?

[Cpv17]

That's a huge buzzkill Blake!

Meh, the Euro is out to pasture while all the rest of the models are in agreement.

Euro has sucked this week too.

Its actually the worst I’ve ever seen it perform.

[Stratton20]

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ec ... VUvGUE.png
The Euro does bring the wintry precip into west houston, irs very close

[DoctorMu]

12z euro is cold with a low of 15 in Houston on Tuesday AM but a high of 37 lol. Keeps everything liquid here. Storm track is further north keeping the warm nose in place. Looks very similar to a few weeks ago when College Station got snow and Houston didn't. Interesting.

That's what I've been seeing on the Euro.

[DoctorMu]

12z euro is cold with a low of 15 in Houston on Tuesday AM but a high of 37 lol. Keeps everything liquid here. Storm track is further north keeping the warm nose in place. Looks very similar to a few weeks ago when College Station got snow and Houston didn't. Interesting.

By liquid does it mean freezing rain only?

Yep. That's of course the worst case scenario. Power outages, shut down major highways.

[Kingwood36]

So the event is cancelled cuz of the euro? Lol